We recently published a list of Stocks On the Rise: 8 Best Stocks to Invest in Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) stands against other best rising stocks to invest In now.
The market experts believe that Q3 2024 saw stocks experience increased volatility, witnessing rapid declines and then rebounding. As per the US Bank, a significant Q3 2024 trend is the rotation away from the tech sectors. All the investors continue to ask the same question: Will the rally in mega-cap stocks continue? JP Morgan believes that their outperformance has been noteworthy for quite some time. The investment firm stated that, from a research perspective, the valuations of the biggest stocks appear historically expensive, not just in the US but throughout the developed markets. Therefore, the investment firm’s expected return signals now favour the smaller market cap cohorts.
That being said, fundamentals for mega-cap stocks remain outstanding. Such giants have much higher profitability, lower debt, and improved earnings momentum. The bank believes that for investors who are worried about a slowdown, pivoting to mid/small caps remains difficult. On the other hand, investors seeing AI enthusiasm entering the speculative phase will find it easier to liquidate the winners. Therefore, the firm believes that the case for building mid/small cap exposure remains reasonable but not compelling.
Goldman Sachs increased its year-end target for the S&P 500 and expects more gains for the benchmark in 2025. These gains stem from the stocks, which continue to increase on the back of strong economic growth, lower Federal Reserve interest rates, and expansion of corporate earnings. The US stocks are expected to be aided by numerous tailwinds in the final months of the year, after the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts and the new fiscal stimulus from China. Both these measures improved the risk sentiments. Market experts believe that stocks should see support from the Q3 earnings season and expansion of corporate profits in the final 3 months as the economy continues to surpass expectations.
LSEG data demonstrates that collective S&P 500 earnings for Q3 2024 should grow 5% as compared to the previous year to ~$5.11 billion. This reflects a decline from the earlier projections of a $5.19 billion tally. Nonetheless, it still indicates strong momentum for this year and next, with Q4 profits anticipated to increase by ~12.5%.
Recently, Goldman trimmed its 2024 earnings growth forecast to 8.2% from 8.4%. However, the investment firm expects that earnings momentum will continue to build in the next year. The firm increased its profit growth projection by 5 percentage points to 11%. This upward revision to its 2025 EPS estimate revolves around increased margin expansion. The firm added that the broader macroeconomic backdrop is conducive to slight margin expansion.
Moreover, the firm increased its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,000 points, exhibiting a rise from the prior forecast of 5,600. The investment firm expects a P/E multiple of ~22x for the S&P 500, which remains in line with the company’s macro model of fair value. This will largely remain unchanged over the upcoming 3 months. For 2025, the bank expects the S&P 500 to increase by another ~300 points, to reach the year-end target of 6,300.
Market strategists believe that the momentum in the broader equities is likely to be aided by a blowout September 2024 jobs report, the start of the US Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, and China’s economic stimulus.
Our methodology
To make a list of 8 Best Stocks to Invest in Now, we used stock screeners to find quality stocks that have gained at least 30% on a YTD basis, as of October 7. We also made sure that these stocks were popular among elite hedge funds. The stocks have been arranged in ascending order of their hedge fund sentiment, as of Q2 2024.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
An e-commerce platform displaying a wide range of products to customers online.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)
% Gain on a YTD Basis: ~41%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 91
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) recently announced the plans to implement a technology service fee to enhance financials. The company also expects its loss-making businesses to break even in just 1 -2 years. In the near term, its growth is expected to stem from the Al-related product revenues in Alibaba Cloud. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) expects that its revenue from external customers in Alibaba Cloud should return to double-digit growth in H2. Moreover, the technology service fee is expected to positively impact financials over the upcoming few months.
Alibaba Cloud’s development of open-source large language models focuses on providing developers with more control. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) continues to emphasize the strategic focus on efficiency and monetization in a bid to reduce losses and achieve profitability in loss-making businesses. It continues to address the decline in FCF because of higher Al infrastructure spending and expects normalization as and when business size stabilizes.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) is expected to achieve a strong return on Al CapEx investments because of healthy demand and backlog. Therefore, the company’s commitment to innovation, mainly in Al, and its strategic measures to help SMEs and enhance unit economics should act as principal tailwinds.
Macquarie raised shares of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) from a “Neutral” rating to an “Outperform” rating, setting a price target of $145.00.
O’keefe Stevens Advisory, an investment advisory firm, released its second-quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“We initiated two new positions during the quarter: Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) and Perrigo (PRGO). Both have seen their stocks decline over 70%+ from their all-time highs.
Alibaba is the largest e-commerce player in China, with 40% gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share through its Taobao and T-mall businesses. While the cloud computing business is relatively small, its 37% market share in China positions it well to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI-related products. In the most recent quarter, AI-related cloud revenue recorded triple-digit growth y/y, with the expectation that total cloud revenue will accelerate to double-digit growth in 2H 2025.
It’s rare to find a dominant market share business with significant tailwinds trading for ~10x adj. EPS. After accounting for their ~$60B net cash balance sheet, the stock is trading at 6-7x, which, we believe, is far too cheap. We understand this business would not trade at this price if it were a U.S. business. However, the valuation gap at a high single-digit P/E is pricing in a combination of the following risks – 1. China invading Taiwan. 2. Cash can never leave mainland China (disproven). 3. Increasing competition from Pinduoduo and Shien resulting in market share loss 4. China’s geopolitical tensions worsen. 5. Economic slowdown stemming from the recent housing market downturn. 6. VIE structure creates doubt over the actual ownership of the business. All risks have merit, with cash distribution restrictions at the lower end due to the recently announced dividend and special dividend. Cash returned to shareholders totaled $16.5B in FY24, up from $13.4B in FY23…” (Click here to read the full text)
Overall, BABA ranks 7th on our list of Best Stocks to Invest in Now. While we acknowledge the potential of BABA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than BABA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
