Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTL) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Rajat Marwah: Yes.

Q – Ian Gillies: And the follow on from that question is, does that contemplate and incurrence of or investing in additional working capital ahead of the EAF ramp? Because I presume, you’re going to have to start buying some scrap ahead of startup and commissioning, at year end?

Rajat Marwah: Yes, it does. And just for context, we will be buying scrap, but not much as we are not much by end of this year, as we are ramping up, it probably will be more in the following year as we buy. And at that point in time, our iron ore and coal inventory will go down substantially, as well. So yes it does consider whatever we will buy, for the ramp-up and we’d still be reducing that CAD100 million or CAD150 million in total by next year.

Q – Ian Gillies: And Rajat, given some of I guess the timing differences now, with spending day in relation to the EAF and the use of the credit facility. Is there anything within the government loans you have right now that prevents the incurrence of additional debt or anything like that could limit your availability?

Rajat Marwah: No, there are good or buckets or baskets, which are available that we can, if we have to tap the credit market we can.

Q – Ian Gillies: Okay. And then I suppose, as we start looking into the remainder of this year and as we think about timing of the capital cost for the EAF, is that an update you’ll provide with your typical guidance that you provide in the early part of April or will that be provided at a later date you think?

Michael Garcia: We’re not sure, what you mean by or by the capital costs in.

Q – Ian Gillies: Well, sorry, just to be clear, you had suggested that you think, you’ll have every all the projects secured and the capital cost secured by the end of this calendar quarter, and you typically provide guidance in and around EBITDA for a quarter, call it early the following months or early April. I was just wondering if, within that release, you think you provide an update on the EAF and costs, et cetera?

Rajat Marwah: Yes, sure. We will. You know as we, and we typically do, we will provide a hub where we are on the on the year on the capital cost side, the — our expectation is the majority of our cost should be fixed by that time and we’ll definitely provide an update by that time.

Q – Ian Gillies: Okay. Thanks very much. I’ll turn it back over.

Michael Garcia: Thanks Ian.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is form Ahmad Shaath with Beacon Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Q – Ahmad Shaath: Hey, guys. Just maybe a first follow-up. I guess what reference point, do you suggest we use in terms of shipments for Q4 relative to the 120k to 150k that you guys mentioned, just because there’s a lot of variability year to date on the shipment volume?

Rajat Marwah: Yes, so, typically we are at around 550k as an average for each quarter. So, you can you can start from there.

Ahmad Shaath: Perfect. That’s very helpful. In terms of pricing, I guess you guys said that you expect directionally some stronger prices for throughout calendar ’24 compared to calendar ’23. As that the driver behind that is just the current futures curve or what assumptions are you driving this comment?

Rajat Marwah: It’s actually the future curves that we are that we are seeing, that’s driving the pricing is. The other thing that’s definitely driving our expectation for this year is the spending that’s happening on the — in the infrastructure and other areas of the consumption as such for the demand as such has been stable, so we don’t expect big changes as such other than the sentimental changes that happened. And also, we are factoring in the cost — the cost element which has kept the loans at a higher number and kept the average through the cycle pricing at a higher number as well. So, some of those factors are considered. But yes, the futures are also indicating where the pricing is going.

Ahmad Shaath: Okay. That’s very helpful. Thanks, Rajat. And last one, I’m not sure if you guys touched on it, but are you guys planning maybe as we get closer to the commissioning of EAF, just update us on the potential savings and OpEx structure. It’s been a while since I think the last update we had is from the data from the roadshow was going public. Just wondering, if there is a chance we get an update around those numbers this year?

Michael Garcia: Yes, Ahmad, this is Mike. We’ll continue to do that, as we update information and get closer to the commissioning of the commencement of commissioning on the EAFs at the end of this year, both on where — what are what our end state will be, as well as more information around what the short hybrid period we’ll look like from that perspective.

Ahmad Shaath: That’s really helpful. Thanks for answering my questions.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Lucas Pipes: Thank you very much, operator. Good morning everyone. Apologies if I missed this, but I wondered if you could maybe provide some color in terms of dollars and cents in regards to the coke incident and wondered, what was the OpEx impact this year might be? And then also from a CapEx side, what will be any additional costs from the incident in the longer term, any kind of long-term cost to consider? Thank you very much.