Alcon Inc. (NYSE:ALC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tim Stonesifer: Yeah, I think if you read the prints, we would expect inflation to come down. The one thing that’s really important to understand is how that inflation works its way through the P&L. So I’m sure you know this, but we are still working through it. It takes for us, it takes anywhere between six to eight months for inventory to work its way through the P&L. So you may be seeing deflation or lower inflation today. That’s not going to hit the P&L today because you’ve got like six months of inventory or whatever it may be that still has to work its way through the P&L. So we saw a little bit of that in Q3. In the prepared remarks, you’ll notice that we would expect to continue to see that kind of in Q4 and Q1 probably. I think Q2 will be more of a normalized view from an inflationary perspective. So you just need to keep in mind there’s a bit of a lag between what you’re reading about versus what’s been purchased and working its way through the P&L.

David Endicott: And Ryan, on supply chain, just to comment, that — look, everything’s looking pretty good right now, honestly, but it always looks good until it doesn’t. So the good news is that we’ve solved some of our challenges. But the supply chain is still pretty fragile. There are outages sporadically on component parts, and we need to make sure that we, again, I want to just make sure we’re balanced about how we think about production going forward. We’ve had a very good run at it, and our manufacturing teams have done a terrific job, I think, of keeping us in product, but you’re always kind of one supplier away from some challenges.

Ryan Zimmerman: Very helpful. And then just to follow up, next year, you called out equipment as benefiting from an upgrade cycle, David. And I’m just wondering if you can kind of speak to where we’re at from an OUS perspective if you can put it at a penetration level. It sounds like most of the US market’s been upgraded, but how long can that upgrade cycle persist beyond, say, the next few quarters? And is that kind of how to think about maybe one of the key drivers for growth next year for 2024? Thanks for taking the question.

David Endicott: Yeah. Ryan, in 2024, I don’t know that equipment is going to be that strong. I mean, actually, what’s going to be — what’s going to occur is we’re likely to get a lot of new equipment out next year that we are going to be testing for part of the year. And that likely will have an effect more in the ‘25 range than ‘24. But what I would say is that the international markets continue to upgrade. We have a very strong equipment number internationally in the third quarter. But you’re 100% right. Right now we’re selling, we’re selling a lot of equipment in the US, but year over prior year, we had a big year last year, so it’s pretty normalized in the US. So I would just say that directionally, we’re going to sell biometers, we’re going to sell visualization equipment, we’re going to sell handpieces, we’re going to sell in the US, and then we’re going to sell a lot of near-term, some CENTURIONs through the end of next year internationally as we end-of-life our Infiniti units.

What will happen after that is that we’ll go into a new cycle in which we will be upgrading old CENTURIONs. And so remember that most of our phaco machines last — let’s call it eight to 12 years. And so, you get about an eighth of the installed base, let’s just call it a tenth of the installed base every year. And we’ll see that, we’ll try and manage that over the life cycle of our next generation products. So again, we’ll try and manage that, with obviously a little enthusiasm in ‘25 when we really get going. But I think directionally, as we said at Capital Markets Day, we expect to be a pretty good place for consumables and equipment through our longer-term planning because we see some real opportunity to improve efficiencies with the new equipment.

Ryan Zimmerman: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Anthony Petrone with the Mizuho Group. Please continue with your question.

Anthony Petrone: Thanks, and good morning. Maybe one for Dave and one for Tim. Dave, maybe just an update, I think when we look at the EMV deck earlier a couple of weeks ago, just a reminder on COMET-3, it looks like you could get a headline readout on COMET-3 before the end of the year. And if that’s the case, would a mid-2024 NDA submission for dry eye still be on the table? And then the follow-up for Tim would be on earnings next year. Just when we sort of try to think about the FX headwind here, there’s still, I think, a little bit of a delay in contact lens manufacturing margin gains. And then we have some mixed outlook for IOLs and just how that plays out. The street is sort of looking for about 12% earnings growth. So maybe just kind of putting all of those inputs into earnings as we think about 2024. Thanks.

David Endicott: Anthony, just on 512, the readouts — you’re 100% right, we will have a couple of the trials. Remember, we’ve got a third one that’s an observational trial that matures somewhere in the end of second — end of first quarter. But we should have some data to look at. If it’s positive, obviously, it’ll probably take us four or five months to get it into a submission format. So obviously that would be around mid ‘24. So I think you’re on the right track there. Again, we’ll have to see how that data looks. And then, Anthony, I would just say on earnings next year, again, we’ll give you more color in February, but we’d expect to grow faster than the market as we talked about. I think the delay in margin, what I would expect is that we will continue to expand margins in Vision Care.