Alcoa Inc (AA), Intel Corporation (INTC), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT): The Dow’s 5 Most Hated Stocks

The Dow Jones Industrial Average may have had a slight swoon over the past two weeks, but make no mistake about it — the economy is slowly finding its footing thanks to a shrinking unemployment rate, accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening housing sector.

However, not everyone is drinking from the same punchbowl. Plenty of pessimists still exist who project that the end of QE3 will prove disastrous for the economy and some of the nation’s largest companies. Today, I propose to examine the five most short-sold stocks in the Dow — the so-called five most hated Dow stocks — as we’ve done in prior months, find out what makes them so disliked by short-sellers, and determine whether this pessimism is warranted.

Source: S&P Capital IQ.

Alcoa
Why are investors shorting Alcoa?

• The story hasn’t changed much on Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) over the past couple of quarter, even though short interest in the company rose slightly from last month. Alcoa’s aluminum pricing and demand are both under pressure because of weaker-than-expected growth in China, lower demand in Europe, and oversupply in many other parts of the globe. Alcoa has stymied some of its higher costs through idling some of its production, but that also defeats many chances it has of growing its top line in the interim.

Is this short interest warranted?

• Short-sellers certainly have all the reasons they need to expect nothing better than mediocrity out of Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA), but I think the upside potential far outweighs what nominal downside might be left. Alcoa stuck to its forecast of 7% global production growth in 2013 and should see a revival in demand when South American and East Asian emerging markets begin their next round of infrastructure upgrades. While I’m not ready to pull the trigger just yet in my own portfolio, I do have Alcoa firmly on my own personal Watchlist.

Intel
Why are investors shorting Intel?

• The knock against Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) lies squarely with its reliance on the PC market. Despite controlling 85% of the microprocessor market in laptops and desktops, this market is rapidly ceding sales to tablets and smartphones, which Intel is late to penetrate. Intel has realigned its focus to ensure it’s developing the hardware to lead the next generation of smartphones and tablets, as well as angling itself to be a prime developer of cloud-based hardware. However, the extra R&D needed to enact this new strategy could stymie Intel’s profits over the interim.

Is this short interest warranted?

• I fully understand why short-sellers are skeptical of Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), but I don’t believe they’re seeing the big picture. Intel’s decline in PC’s will be slow and gradual, and it remains a source of consistent cash flow in the meantime. In addition, Intel is in line to be the prime beneficiary of the big data center evolution, with its next-generation processing chips being used by big name storage companies. Intel has also begun to edge its way into the tablet microprocessing market with a lion’s share of the Windows OS tablets and just last week with the announcement that its microprocessors were found in the Samsung Galaxy Note 3.

Caterpillar
Why are investors shorting Caterpillar?

• If you want one reason to blame for Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)’s emergence on the Dow’s most-hated stock list, then look no further than weaker metal and coal prices. Caterpillar is a manufacturer of heavy-duty construction and mining equipment, among other things. If mineral miners are putting off projects and reducing capital expenditures because gold, silver, and other mineral prices are down, then it will adversely affect Caterpillar’s bottom line and eventually its backlog. Not surprisingly, Caterpillar’s first-quarter results missed the mark, and the company lowered its full-year EPS guidance.

Source: Martin Pettitt, commons.wikimedia.org.

Is this short interest warranted?

• Like Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA), the reasons to be pessimistic are certainly there, and the fact is that Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)’s fortunes are unlikely to turn around at the drop of a hat. However, as a metal bull myself, I don’t foresee Caterpillar running into too much additional downside as long as precious-metal prices don’t nosedive from their current levels. Keep in mind, as well, that demand for precious metals, as well as the need for agricultural equipment, should ultimately boost Caterpillar’s orders. I’d suggest exercising some caution here if you have short-term intentions. Otherwise, Caterpillar appears ready to haul your portfolio to gains over the long run.

Hewlett-Packard
Why are investors shorting HP?

• If Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is an indirect sufferer of the decline of the PC market, then Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) is the front line of the walking wounded. In HP’s most recent quarter, the PC maker pointed to a whopping 20% decline in PC revenue, with research firm IDC reporting that PC sales industrywide dropped 14% during the first quarter. The one saving grace has been HP’s steep cost-cutting, which will see 29,000 jobs cut before the end of 2014 and also allowed HP to forecast better-than-expected earnings in the second-quarter.

Is this short interest warranted?

• As much as I like HP’s cash flow, I think there are numerous kinks to still be worked out in Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ)’s various business segment. A company doesn’t shed 29,000 jobs in a two-year span and move forward as if nothing happened without some hiccups along the way. I’ve yet to see any concrete plans of how HP plans to grow its top line, and I suspect that the company will have a hard time boosting its EPS beyond this year as it squeezes every last drop out of the cost-cutting turnip. If there was a company worthy of being the Dow’s most short-sold stock, I think it should be HP.