Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Timna Tanners: Okay. That’s super helpful. Thanks for that context and thoughts. My other second question was just on the CapEx, given that your guidance, at least from my recollection, is a little lower than what we have seen before by $50 million. And actually, your 2022 came in I think about $45 million lower than what you had initially said. So, just wondering if any shortfalls there, if that is getting pushed out, any explanation would be great? Thanks.

William Oplinger: I wouldn’t say any things were necessarily getting pushed out, Timna. Given €“ and you have seen over the years, given the market situation that we are in and the cash generation of the company, we will flex the capital spending up and down. And so I think it’s a good point. The last time we gave you guidance around 2023 was back in November of 2021. And we said at the time, we would spend $550 million of sustaining capital. And that was before we curtailed the smelter in Spain and made some commitments in Spain on capital spend there. So, the $485 million that we are showing you for 2023, we have already ratcheted it down a little bit based on current market conditions. With that said, going into my new role, we will make sure that we spend that $485 million wisely and do the best that we can to make sure that we maintain the assets at the right level so that we can produce the tons in the good times.

Timna Tanners: Okay. Thanks very much.

Operator: The next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Lucas Pipes: Thank you very much operator. Good afternoon everyone. And Bill, I hope it wasn’t our questions that led you to the new role. In terms of my question, I wanted to follow-up on Huntly. Is the easiest way to think about it, it’s about $165 million impact for 2023 between and then as we look out to 2024, this issue will hopefully be resolved?

William Oplinger: Yes. The number you put out there, the $165 million is correct. That is in relation to the fourth quarter and you just need to €“ we needed to be able to ground you in how much this issue was going to cost us in Q2 through Q4. So, it’s $55 million unfavorable compared to the fourth quarter. But it’s important that you first back out some of the unfavorable items that occurred in the fourth quarter in the Alumina segment. So, in the Alumina segment in the fourth quarter of 2022, we had an ARO charge of $25 million, and we had an incremental one-time set of charges that were some small things in that segment. So, what we are guiding you to is start with the fourth quarter of alumina, add back the $35 million and then deduct the $55 million.

So, it’s an incremental $20 million of un-favorability in relation to the fourth quarter. And I hope that’s clear. We just needed to try to make that as clear as we possibly could for you to be able to model out the impact.

Lucas Pipes: Very clear to me. I appreciate that detail. And this would also include all the quality concerns that Roy mentioned in response to one of the earlier questions.

William Oplinger: It does. That’s an inclusive number that includes the loss of tons, but also it’s more expensive to make the tons that we will be making. As we push through lower-quality bauxite through the refineries, we will have higher usages of caustic and other input costs. So, that’s inclusive of those two items, tons and costs.

Lucas Pipes: Very helpful. I appreciate that. And then switching quickly to San Ciprián, could you run us through a punch list for that restart? I know you spent some time on that theme today, but would appreciate what is necessary there. And if this punch list is not completed by the end of this year, what happens? Do you go ahead with whatever the spot price power is at that time or are there other remediation possibilities? Thank you very much for that color.

Roy Harvey: Yes. Lucas, let me try and answer that, and then if I am not hitting the targets, let me know. So, what we have are a series of commitments that we made that essentially allowed us to idle the facility a little bit more than a year ago. There were a certain number of capital investments, and some of those take longer than others, as you can imagine, and they are meant to set up the facility for the long-term. And so those are ongoing. And also, what we need to do is make sure that it’s ready to restart when we get to January 1, 2024, which was a very specific commitment that’s inside of the agreement. Our workforce is there ready and waiting. And in fact, we have been trying to help with certain trainings and things like that.

But in the end, there is only a certain number of activities that they can do. They have helped with some maintenance and things like that, but they are ready and waiting and ready to jump in to start that restart. So, really, we just need to make sure that we have all of the raw materials necessary, so as 2023 progresses, we will be able to make sure that we have got the coke and pitch or anodes in place so that when we start to spark those pots and bring production back online again, it will be ready to go. From an energy perspective, it’s a matter of, we have got the 75% worth of contracts that are already in place. Those are wind farms still to be constructed. So, those are going through the permitting phases, which connects with both the national and regional governments.

There will then be a construction phase. As you can imagine, the construction of wind farms in Northwestern Spain is something that’s happened often in the past, but it takes some time to be able to bring those up to speed. And so we will need to find a solution for the piece of the €“ for the remaining 25% plus the piece of the 75% that will not be ready when we get ready to restart those pots. And whether we run that on spot, whether we find a shorter term contract, how we manage that is still not something that we have disclosed or have made a decision on. But as you can imagine, because we have that agreement with the workforce, we will be ready when the time comes and we will be working on that over the course of these next months.

Lucas Pipes: Right. That is very helpful. That’s exactly what I was looking for, so I appreciate that, and to you and the team, continued best of luck.

Roy Harvey: Thanks Lucas.

Operator: The next question is from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Michael Dudas: Good evening everyone and well done, Bill.

William Oplinger: Thanks Michael.

Michael Dudas: Roy, could you share with us your observations of what your major customers are behaving like right now as we went into 2023? Is there expectation that the recovery from the pandemic restrictions in China and such and stimulus is going to be a pretty major factor? Is it going to be sooner rather than later, given what your customers are thinking?