Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Bill Peterson: Okay. Thanks for that. If you think about the US market, it’s benefited from protectionism through Section 232. How do you see further protectionism evolving given the election year and also the headlines out this morning regarding Chinese material? Based on our math, this looks like around maybe 3% to 5% of total US imports over the past few years.

William Oplinger: So the headlines that came out this morning, if we just back up, the 232, we don’t see that necessarily the 232 tariffs changing. And so, we think those will stay in place. The headlines that came out this morning around potential increase of tariffs on 301 is, first of all, it’s a fairly small sub segment of the aluminum that’s used. And second of all, I guess, in our view, it’s probably positive for our North American customers. And if it’s positive for our North American downstream customers, we’re supportive of the increased tariff level. Now, it’s very recent news and we haven’t seen any of the final information. So that’s a preliminary view.

Bill Peterson: Okay. Thanks for the insights and color.

Operator: The next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners: Hey, good afternoon. As I look across your, like, remaining operations, there’s still some curtailed smelting capacity and refining capacity. And in light of your optimistic outlook and the strength recently in aluminum, do you revisit like further Warrick restarts or Lista, for example, or do you think about opportunities to maybe capitalize on this higher price in the near term or going forward as well?

William Oplinger: Excuse me, Timna, I’m dealing with a little bit of a cold here. So sorry about that. But you know that for instance in the case of Warrick and Lista, we always look at the economics of a potential restart. In both situations, we would need to have real clarity around near-term energy prices. And so, we would consider it. However, in the case of, for instance, Warrick, want to make sure that we have the three lines running well and capture the savings that we’ve announced and gone out publicly with. And in the case of Lista, it would have to be an energy solution that we would be able to get over the near term.

Timna Tanners: Okay. Helpful. And I just want to understand Spain a little bit better. So, when you think about selling the assets, but you’re on the same breath you’re telling us that you’re not very optimistic about them. So, would a potential buyer have to have — I guess you mentioned the other Spanish sale and so they need to have some deep pockets and maybe a different relationship with the union and government. Like, how do you sell an asset that you’re telling people is struggling? I just want to understand that better. And what your prospects you think there are?

William Oplinger: Well, we’re running a really broad-based sale process and we’ve gone out to just about every strategic and financial buyer in the industry. And it will really be up to them to take a position around how they view some of the things that they can achieve either with the union or through governmental support and metal prices and alumina prices, right? So, if somebody has a view that Europe will be short metal for the long term, potentially they can justify buying the assets. We’ll go through that process, at the same time as I said, we’ll be very focused around trying to ensure the viability of the site for ourselves and for a potential future buyer. And if we get to the second half of this year and we don’t have a buyer and we can’t assure the viability, as we’ve said, we’re not putting more money into that site and hard decisions will have to be made at that time.

Timna Tanners: Okay. And just to clarify, the view of running out of cash in the second half, does include the recent run rate of aluminum and alumina prices?

William Oplinger: So, at — I think we’ve said recently that we have about $200 million of internal lines of credit or cash, of which some of that is restricted cash associated with capital expenditures. And that largely includes the most recent view. Metal prices run up a little bit over the last few days, maybe that pushes it out a month or two, but that’s the view, Timna, that it’ll be second half sometime.

Timna Tanners: Okay. I appreciate it. I hope you feel better.

William Oplinger: Thanks.

Operator: The next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Carlos De Alba: Hello, Bill and Molly. I hope you’re doing fine. And you get better soon, Bill.

William Oplinger: Thanks, Carlos.

Carlos De Alba: On Alumar, just how potentially could the issue that you’re facing now impact the $75 million incremental EBITDA that you expect to get from that operation by the end of 2025?

Molly Beerman: So, Carlos, so when we set that guidance for the $75 million improvement, we were really looking at the losses that we had accumulated in 2023 and setting a goal for ourselves to at least be back to neutral to breakeven. So, we’re still on that path to get into 2025, hopefully turning the quarter into positive profitability. But that’s why we are focused on the 75% as being achievable.

Carlos De Alba: All right. Thanks, Molly. And then, on the breakthrough technologies, which some of them are really exciting, what is going on? Maybe it feels or at least to me that it is delaying a little bit the implementation, the pace at which those are advancing. Any color that you can provide there on the ELYSIS or the Refinery of the Future perhaps?