We don’t have a specific estimate because it’s also at that time line is really reset every time they have another data request. And so it’s going to take a little bit of time.The reason that we essentially structured what we’ve said about our bauxite grade impact by and extending it really into the first quarter of 2024 should give you a pretty good feel for what we think that this is going to add to the process, assuming it plays out the way that we should. I can’t really jump into hypothetical situations about what that process is going to come out and what then does it mean. The fact is it’s — there’s not a clear standard for what happens next. I think I would go back to say the state EPA and the referrals process as well as the current discussions around the operating permits is really all managed at the Western Australian level.
So, the work that we’re doing in order to try and solve all of these problems is to make sure that we have the mitigations in place that we’re protecting the water sheds and ensuring that we have the best quality, not impacting the quality of the great quality of water that Western Australia has and also making sure that we can accelerate our biodiversity and rehabilitation efforts.So, when you think about what happens next, the answer is we need to come to an agreement with the Western Australian government on what we’re doing in order to protect both of those things, that then indicates where we can mine the next set of tons, which then means we can have our — can have this next round of permit that then buys us to certain to be able to come back to normal bauxite grades again.
Again, and sort of like with the question that I had earlier, there’s a lot of what-ifs and a lot of questions that sit in there, it is a process that is playing out right now. And we will keep you updated as soon as we hear — as soon as we continue to hear what’s happening next. I appreciate the question, Alex.Alex Hacking Thanks. It’s a helpful answer. And I do appreciate that it’s a dynamic situation and complex. So, thank you for the color.Operator Then next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.Lawson Winder Two quick questions for me. First would be in terms of your expectations for the CapEx ramp for 2023. Which quarter do you expect would be the heaviest level, and where do you expect Q2 ‘23 to be directionally versus Q1?Molly Beerman So Lawson, our fourth quarter is always the heaviest CapEx period, and we’re still looking at $485 million for sustaining and $115 million for our return seeking.
We don’t have the number handy between the quarters before.Lawson Winder Would it be a gradual ramp up like it has been in the past? So…Molly Beerman Yes. It’ll follow the past, gradual ramp up.Lawson Winder And then, I’m not sure I heard you mention it, but who is the third party that referred the case to the EPA, and what are their key concerns?Roy Harvey The — so we didn’t specifically mention the third party, but it’s a local NGO. The concerns that they have are really — I did mention what the concerns were, protecting the water quality. Because we are mining in areas that are within the watershed for Perth, we need to make sure that we are controlling erosion that we’re applying all these mitigating measures to always protect water first and foremost, which is how we’ve always approached this.
But I think we need to make sure that we can provide even more risk reduction in order to satisfy our regulators. The other piece, of course, that they ask about is around biodiversity, and how we are rehabilitating in the Jarrah Forest.The Jarrah Forest is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. It is an immense privilege for us to be able to mine there. I look back at our 60 years of operating in Western Australia. And I’m very proud of what we’ve been able to accomplish. And that’s on the science side, as well as on the practical and pragmatic side of actually seeing that restoration because it’s been so long live to see our restore habitat and all the way from relatively new plantations, all the way to what is advanced and develop new forests.As you can imagine, our practices have improved year after year.
We have some super cool technologies that we’ve been able to start using really over this last decade particularly, and we’re very focused on making sure that not only are we developing forest, but we’re making sure that we preserve all the biodiversity that was there after we finished rehabilitation. So we sort of measure the number of species and things along those lines. And in fact, we were the — one of the few Western Australian companies that, in fact, has returned and received certificate of completions for rehabilitation that has been completed and then hand back over to the state. So, a great legacy of stuff that we’ve been able to do. That’s good, but we need to do better, and we need to accelerate, and we need to make sure that we’re also rehabilitating very quickly, particularly in sensitive areas that obviously are these places where we need to always be rehabilitating as quickly as we possibly can.So, all that to say it’s — those are really the two issues that they’ve really made questions about.
They happen to be aligned with the same thing that we’re discussing with our regulators. So again, I think the answer here is that we need to make sure that we’re delivering on what we’ve been requested, which I’m very confident that we’re doing. We just need to make sure that we have those consensual discussions and the collaboration between government and Alcoa.Operator And our last question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.Lucas Pipes Thanks very much for taking the follow-up. And lots of great detail throughout this call. So, thank you for that. The follow-up is on the LME situation, Roy, that you mentioned earlier. Do you have a kind of time line in mind for potential breaking point given the inflows of Russian metal in London?
Thank you very much for your perspective.Roy Harvey Yes. Lucas, it’s always good to get these questions. It’s hard to predict exactly. And I hate to think in too linear fashion. But when we started out this time last year, there was about 5% of inventories that were rushing. We’re now at 53%. And I can’t tell you when the market starts to get more and more distorted. But at some point, the only thing left in LME warehouses will be metal that is only consumed by a small group of non-western producers. We’re seeing more and more of our customers that are extremely sensitive to any Russian content, because if their products then go to the U.S., they could have very significant tariffs placed on them because of the way that these tariffs were fashioned.
