Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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And something we’re looking at. But I’d underscore, we’re only going to do it if — again, it’s consistent with our core values as a company, use our strong financial foundation and just keep it on autopilot.

Scott Group: And what is the hedge loss, though you’ve got factored in?

Nathaniel Pieper: We’re looking at about $10 million in the first quarter. And then as you can imagine, it snaps to something different every day, the forward curve moves.

Operator: And our next question will come from Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global.

Daniel McKenzie: The question is the state of California was pretty slow to come out of the pandemic, and I guess my question is, what percent of the revenue growth this year is just simply getting markets back to 2019 levels of revenue? And then related to this, what percent of Alaska’s revenue touches the state of California?

Andrew Harrison: Yes. So just on the big picture, Dan, our growth, 2/3 of it is going to be Pacific Northwest and 1/3 of it is going to be California. Just as it relates to recovery, if you look at our growth in 2023, the Pacific Northwest is now in the double-digit territory higher than 2019. But California was still down 23% last year, and it will be close, it will be 10 points better than that. So our California network will still be down about 10 to 12 points this year versus ’19, but recovering. And I would say, again, very high level, 1/3 of our revenues is somewhat tied to California.

Daniel McKenzie: Wow, that’s big. On the prior comment that Alaska has more upside on corporate revenue versus peers. So I guess on premium revenue, I believe the stat was to have 62% more premium seats this year versus 2019. And I guess I’m wondering if that stat is still correct or if that’s right. And I’m not sure if you can share what the mix is today or — but what it is today versus where you might expect to exit the year, but if you can, that’s helpful. And then related to this, just the corporate travel budgets, are they coming in a little higher than last year, a lot higher or lower just given the tech exposure.

Andrew Harrison: Yes. So I think a couple of things. And you maybe saw in my prepared remarks that we were able to increase our premium revenues by nearly $0.5 billion. And as Shane has shared, we’re sort of trading out 12 first-class seat 320s for 16 first-class seat MAXs. So there’s real upside there. I think overall, I think first class revenues were up about 21%. And — so there is a significant opportunity there. The other opportunity we’re working on then is our regional fleet, and we actually we’re all 175 now, which have first and premium, and we’re really happy with the progress we’ve made on filling those seats at good fares, and we continue to work that. And then on the last question you had was on corporate. Could you repeat that one again, sorry?

Daniel McKenzie: Yes, the corporate budget is a little higher, a little lower or given the tech exposure.

Andrew Harrison: Yes. I think — some of the budgets when I last spoke to my team was still being finalized for this year. I think budgets or no budgets, I think what we’re really seeing a little bit here, Dan, in some cases, is the on-off switch. You’ve got to go to your Vice President to ask for travel, and so people are not going. So we either see very deep cuts in travel or more to the average means. So I think the real question is, will high-tech start to give permission for their people to start traveling again. And as you know, it’s not just it’s hotels, it’s cars, it’s air fares. So anyway, that’s where we’re at.

Operator: Our next question will come from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

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