Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Andrew Harrison: Yes. Thanks for the question. I think from your perspective, it’s give or take around 10% of our capacity is regional. I don’t see that materially changing. That said, the regional businesses are profitability, just with the return of utilization and redeployment has jumped significantly, and they’ve been a valuable partner, both SkyWest and Horizon to help us with our Boeing deliveries and those Embraer 175 is backfilling some markets that we otherwise couldn’t serve.

Ben Minicucci: Yes, and Duane, I’ll just say for — on Horizon’s part, this is Ben. Horizon is just performing fantastic. Margins are up. We put a lot of focus in the last few years in our regional business, and it’s really performing nicely and we continue to see that trend continue over the rest of the year.

Duane Pfennigwerth: Okay. Thank you very much.

Ben Minicucci: Thanks, Duane.

Operator: Your next question will come from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

Jamie Baker: Hey, good morning. [Indiscernible] I had to Google Alaska Access, a little embarrassing to start off with that. So obviously, the corporate momentum is a positive. Can you speak though to how corporate patterns compared to those are pre-COVID? How does trip duration compare as the booking curve elongated, as change fees have gone away, that sort of thing — behavioral change, I guess, is what I’m asking about.

Andrew Harrison: Yes. Thanks, Jamie. I think I probably will have a better answer for you next quarter. As I shared, the rapid up 10, up 30, up 24, just in this first quarter with everything else going on was something we need to better digest, as we move through the second quarter. But I am seeing a lot of the traditional demand return as we’ve seen it historically. But I’ll have a better answer after we’ve digested this quarter and get through the second quarter.

Jamie Baker: Okay. Well, then you won’t fall me when I asked the same question in 90 days, that’s good. So second question, just on the revised full year guide, first quarter was solid, you’ve got good visibility. And in the second, I guess I’m wondering what’s driving the $2 range in the guide? I mean, to be fair, United has a $2 range as well. Is it just stylistic that you chose to maintain that range? Or do you really think there’s that much variability and uncertainty in the second half? And if so, what are the most uncertain inputs in your model besides fuel?

Shane Tackett: Yes. Hey, thank you, Jamie. There’s probably a large component of it that’s just habit. Like we’ve habitually done a $2 range and we tied …

Jamie Baker: Okay.

Shane Tackett: … maybe in the fourth quarter or something. I do think fuel is the largest immediate driver typically that we see that will run us up or down that EPS guide. But yes, I do think the $2 range is more just out of habit than anything. That we are trying to architect around like a specific set of outcomes on the worst case side versus the best case side.

Jamie Baker: And just if I can sneak in a clarification, earlier in the call, did you say double-digit RASM on 3% capacity in April?

Andrew Harrison: What I said was that our intakes coming into the months are up double-digit for April. Like the tickets we are selling to debt. Not the entire [indiscernible].

Jamie Baker: Yes, that makes sense. I was pinged by a client about that. So I hadn’t heard it that way either. So thank you for the clarification. I will cede the floor to somebody else. Thank you.

Shane Tackett: Okay. Thanks, Jamie.

Operator: And we will move next to Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott Group: Hey, thanks. Good morning. So I just want to follow-up on that last point because if you assume that CASM is approaching flat, it feels like the guidance assumes RASM that’s flat to down and you’re saying it was up 5% in Q1. You sound like everything is really, really good in Q2. So I’m not sure if I’m missing something or if there’s a lot of conservatism in the guide, or any color would be helpful.

Andrew Harrison: Yes. I think — Scott, I think the thing to remember in the first quarter is, it’s obviously by far our seasonally weakest. Second quarter is very, very strong. And capacity industry-wide is growing, obviously, much more in a second. So it’s all relative. I think what your statements around CASM and RASM directionally are spot on. And as we’ve been shared before, as we get into this period and then we look at our margins and profitability for the second quarter, very strong. And as we’ve shared before, as we move through this quarter and beyond, West Coast capacity from the industry is reducing, growth is reducing. So there’s a really good setup for the back half of the year.

Scott Group: Okay. I think I understand. And then you had a comment about we will tell you more at some point about loyalty, but maybe just give us a little bit of some thoughts about what you’re referring to and that would be helpful.

Andrew Harrison: Yes, Scott, I think in general, I’m not going to share much today, but we have a number of things in the works that we are working on. And at the right time, we are going to be sharing more. I just really wanted folks to know, especially on the revenue side, we have some really good things in store, and we are not ready to share those yet.

Ben Minicucci: Andrew was just teasing, Scott. But look, there’s a lot of things that we’ve got a lot of irons in the fire in terms of loyalty and products and stuff. So yes, when the time is right, we will provide more color on those, but I’m really excited about.

Scott Group: Okay. Thank you guys. Appreciate it.

Ben Minicucci: Thanks, Scott.

Operator: And our next question will come from Stephen Trent with Citigroup.

Stephen Trent: Hi. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. The first one kind of an [indiscernible] one for me, but let’s say, hypothetically Alaska and Hawaiian merge, there aren’t any sort of major adjustments in capacity that the DOJ passes down. Could you tell at this juncture whether your exposure to West Coast refining cost would rise with the combined Hawaiian? Or would it kind of stay the same or is it kind of too early to tell?