Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And so — and then you’ve got a company like Raya in Malaysia, which is going to be taking A321s and they are currently a 767 customer. They fly for DHL. So when you look at these lessees, they’re diversifying us globally. And although they may not be your household name of DHL, UPS or FedEx, they fly for those people. So the credits that they represent are very strong in relation to just the general airline that’s out there. So we have a lot of confidence. We do a lot of vetting of airlines in terms of what they’re going to do with the airplane. And so we have a general understanding. Another 1 I forgot to mention was as Maersk is taking — will end up with 5 airplanes from us. They’ve already taken 3. There’s 2 more to be delivered to them.

And of course, Maersk is one of the largest, if not the largest ocean company in the world. And so those are the types of customers we’ve got. And so we’re very confident in the cash flows that we’ll be receiving from these customers.

Quint Turner: I just — just to bring a little bit more color to it, Howard. Our partner — one of our partners in Africa, Astral Airways, was just named Cargo Airline of the Year for that region. Rich mentioned Raya. They were named E-commerce Airline of the Year in Southeast Asia. And just a little bit further detail on MireStar, they’ve been the provider of UPS in the European network for literally for over 30 years. So the vetting goes — the vetting is very diligent and understanding their business plans and how they’re going to succeed is also very important. But as Rich said as well, DHL specifically is in line to take several aircraft over the next few years on the 767 side as well as the 330.

Quint Turner: And so Howard, you mentioned how the market views it in contrast with what we’re saying. And of course, we don’t — we’re not second-guessing anybody or the market, but it is a little frustrating. I mean, like when we look at somebody looking just at a quarter, for example, and even this quarter, I think we had a tax item, where we adjusted our state tax apportionment based on where the aircraft fly, which states they fly over because they have different tax rates. So you run that. So we had something that was probably $0.03 to $0.05 in the fourth quarter. Well, that’s kind of the difference between the consensus and our $0.53. We hit our target that we set in February of last year for full year EBITDA. And of course, we’ve talked at length about the visibility we have to sustainable structural growth in our leasing business, which is, as you point out, the source of the majority of our cash flows and will be under long-term agreements for many, many years.

And so we feel very fortunate to have that in front of us. As I mentioned, there’s a little volatility around the edges with our asset-light ACMI flying, but even they have made tremendous progress since the pre-pandemic period and even since ’21. CapEx-wise, the leasing business requires CapEx. There’s — that comes with that territory we get. But with the placements of 20 aircraft this year and more than that in ’24, and the first of the 330s, we essentially have locked in growth for 3 years more because even if you pull your — pull back on investments after ’24, the placements you make in ’24 are going to drive substantial EBITDA growth in ’25. And so we feel very fortunate about that. And we hope that investors focus on that long term and recognize that we’ve now demonstrated that our model performs well under different economic cycles, having gone through the pandemic, coming out of it.

And even the slower growth that we’ve guided to in ’23, contrast that with other transportation companies, and you can see that there truly is a stable base here that we feel very fortunate to have as part of our business model.