Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Helane Becker: Can I squeeze in one more question? I think, Rich, you said that you were going to use Boeing to do more conversions than IAI. Why are they going to be faster to do conversions or turnarounds, given all the supply constraint issues they have?

Rich Corrado: Yes. I didn’t say that we were going to use more Boeing, but we do have 8 slots from Boeing and we’re still using a lot of IAI. We have 5 lines operating there pretty much at all times. The difference between IAI and Boeing really is that Boeing has a full production line still going of factory freighters and factory tankers. And so I think they’ve got a sturdier supply chain than some of the other converters and some of the other lines of business. Now we’re under the A321, the A330. We’ve got multiple vendors on the A321 on the conversion side. And of course, we do our own. And then we’ve got the 2 on the 767. So we get a good view into what’s going on in some of these supply chains, and I think we mentioned it in the prepared remarks that we saw some delays from IAI.

And a lot of that was related to fabrication and parts vendors that they use in other countries. And I think Boeing just has a more captive supply chain just because they’ve got, I believe, because they’ve got that large production line and that supports their conversion line as well.

Mike Berger: And Helane, it’s Mike. They tend to be a little bit more, like I put it this way, cookie-cutter. So the work scopes that go into the conversions upfront are well defined and just more cookie-cutter approach so the changes don’t impact the actual delivery times.

Rich Corrado: Another way to say that is they’re less flexible.

Helane Becker: I got it. Okay, all right.

Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli with Truist. Your line is open.

Michael Ciarmoli: Just I guess, Rich or Quint, just looking at the EBITDA guidance next year, the run rate, I mean, you have — it’s basically the second half ’22 EBITDA run rate basically put you at the low end of that range. You’re going to have more planes in service. Is all of this pressure just coming from ACMI? Or can you just elaborate a little bit? I was always operating under the impression of playing out there is maybe $4 million to $5 million of EBITDA. But just maybe can you provide some color as to the EBITDA, why the run rate just kind of holds from third quarter, fourth quarter all the way through?

Quint Turner: Yes. I mean, Michael, it’s Quint. You’re correct that the — in terms of the, I guess, the more of the headwind in ’23 is ACMI Services. Even though, as I mentioned, ACMI Services in ’23 is projected to be up versus, for example, ’21 and certainly way up since the pre-pandemic period. I mean, ACMI Services has been a great contributor. But there is, as we’ve always said, a little bit more volatility, and our business model has a great deal of stability with the CAM piece. But there’s always a little bit of volatility on the ACMI Services side. Now we like that because it’s an asset-light business, and generally, it’s been a great contributor in terms of overall cash flow. And as I said, it has made progress every year except comparing to ’22 as we look at ’23.