Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Isaac Sellhausen: Hey guys. Good morning. This is Isaac filling in for Ian. Thanks for taking all questions. I wanted to ask on the guidance assumptions for the year. I guess which still excludes any additional leases or flying opportunities like you mentioned. I think you previously quantified that at around $30 million. Is that still the right range, or do you feel that could potentially be higher? And then any additional leases or flying would you expect those to be with existing or new customers? Thanks.

Mike Berger: Yes. Appreciate the call. I will take the piece on the additional leases. As you have heard us say throughout the year, we are going to continue to make further announcements as our leases become firm. We have got several solid opportunities in our pipeline. And as we progress through the year, on the next call, we will advise further in regards to the impact it will have on revenue and EBITDA.

Joe Hete: The flying piece of it, obviously, there is significant start-up costs associated with bringing on the additional pilots, transitioning aircraft over, you have to do a bridging check essentially. So, we are estimating that in terms of the impact for 2024, the offset to the revenue that we will gain as the aircraft meter in is somewhere in the $6 million to $8 million range in terms of expenses that you won’t see, obviously, once you get the last airplane in service, so you will be able to leverage that on a go-forward basis.

Isaac Sellhausen: Okay. Understood. And then just a quick follow-up on the ACMI side. How have cargo and passenger block hours trended in April and maybe moving into the second quarter? I think you mentioned a slight improvement in DoD activity, but still somewhat lower, so just trying to understand how hours are trending?

Joe Hete: In terms of the quarter, as I just mentioned earlier, for example, the ATI side, they were down about 9% on a quarter-to-quarter basis. Remember, the 76-200s all came out of ATI and ABX over the last, call it, 12 months. Last airplanes were parked April 5th, I think it was, the last couple. So, if you look at April, it’s from that standpoint with no additional flying in place, it’s going to be down a little bit versus where it was in, call it, March. But we expect it to start obviously coming back as we bring on the additional 10 aircraft through the balance of the year.

Isaac Sellhausen: Okay. Great. Thanks so much.

Joe Hete: Yes. Thanks.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Christopher Stathoulopoulos with SIG. You may proceed.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos: Hey. Thanks for taking my follow-up. Quint, the 137 aircraft expected at year-end, are these all fully committed and/or running perhaps at the utilization levels? You need them to be, meaning as we contemplate, what other flying opportunities that exist here and potential upside to the guidance? Is there any kind of slack capacity or currently aircraft that are currently on the ground? And then the 18 for next year as we – particularly the A321s and A330s, just remind us how many of those are committed at this point? Thank you.

Quint Turner: Sure. Well, as we have said in our guidance that we have given, we did not include in that guidance anything beyond the four contractually committed 767-300 leases, all of which we did place in the first quarter. We are operating by the end of the quarter. So, any additional capacity that we lease during the remainder of the year would be additive to that level of guidance that we gave, the $516 million. And we do have aircraft as Paul said earlier, that are being marketed, including A321s and 767 aircraft. And then late this year, we will have our first couple of Airbus 330s that come out in the fourth quarter. I don’t know, Paul, if you want to anything to that?

Paul Chase: No, you covered it, I mean we are seeing pretty strong demand returning on the 767-300 side, and we see strong customer demand on the A330. A321 is, we have some existential issues with some overcapacity in the 737 freighter market that’s hurting demand there, that will eventually subside. But yes, we are – I am confident in what we are seeing in the market, especially relative to 2023.

Quint Turner: But as we move through the year, Chris, we – as contractual commitments are made for those aircraft, we would update that, but certainly, there are discussions taking place that might result in some additional upside there on the leasing piece.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos: The “existential issues” here as it relates to the A321s and 300s, is that more of a U.S. domestic issue or international?

Paul Chase: No, the A321, in particular, was what I was referencing. And that’s a global issue. You have two challenges. You have an oversupply of 737 freighters and then you have some GTF engine issues going on with especially in the V2500 side. So, that’s what’s affecting that particular product.

Mike Berger: Yes. I would just add from a market standpoint, Chris, we continue to be an enabler of e-commerce. We have spoken and I have spoken many times on this call about e-commerce being the engine of the industry. If you couple that with improving air cargo trends, which by the way, for the last four months have been double-digit positive over prior year, that’s absolutely a winning combination, right. If you look underneath the major integrators results in terms of their numbers, the cross-border piece and the international piece stand out dramatically versus their other products. So, just to expand to drop further on that, we have talked a lot about Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, for example, being a growth opportunity for us, specifically.

You have seen us place assets there over the past year. And our pipeline is also very robust in those areas. So, as Joe mentioned earlier in his optimism, we are confident we have got the right assets. And first and foremost, those assets will allow us to continue to be the world’s largest lessor of cargo freighters in the world.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. You may proceed.

Michael Ciarmoli: Hi. Thanks for taking the follow-up guys. Just a point of clarification, the upside potential on EBITDA, $30 million, I mean that was originally $536 million, you got $10 million, is there still $20 million left, or are you just not really commenting on a specific number?