AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tami Zakaria: Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. So most of my questions have been asked, so just two quick ones. The first one is on fleet age, I think you mentioned it’s trending younger. Is it for both tractors and combines that you feel like it’s trending younger? And any quantification like what is the age now versus, let’s say, two, three years ago?

Greg Peterson: Yes. So Tami, I would say, yes, both categories, tractors and combines. And we’ve moved down probably from the beginning of the year to where we are at the end of the third quarter to somewhere between half year and one year closer to normal. So I think we were probably a full year ahead of a 10 or 15-year average, 7.5 years versus this more normal 6.5. We’re probably about halfway back to that 6.5, so probably closer to seven in terms of age of the fleet.

Tami Zakaria: Got it. That’s helpful. And then I think getting – going into the third quarter, you were expecting flattish production hours but it seems like it was down 2%. What drove that disconnect? And also related to that, in the fourth quarter now, it seems like you expect production hours up a little bit year-over-year. Again, which regions are driving this up expectations?

Greg Peterson: Right. Tami, most of that change in fluctuation related to what happened with the financing program in Brazil, so that program ran out of money, as we’ve talked about. As the loans began to be processed again, well, so that led to us cutting production in the third quarter in Brazil, and then as those loans now are being processed, some of that production got shifted into the fourth quarter. So net-net, most of that change related to South America.

Eric Hansotia: And just one other thing to think about when you’re thinking about the age of the fleet, the other indicator to watch is used inventories. And so for example, in North America, the tractor is 175 horsepower to 300 horsepower, which is right in the middle of the bell curve, we’ve got like 300 units in the industry now versus 6,500 units pre-COVID. So inventory is still low, maintaining good, strong price of used inventory, that’s a good health barometer for the industry.

Operator: The next question is from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Jerry Revich: Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone.

Eric Hansotia: Hi, Jerry.

Jerry Revich: I’m wondering, if we could just expand the discussion on the Trimble JV integration. So one of the compelling points about the acquisition is just how quickly you can transition the receivers and drive that additional upside for the joint venture. So as we think about the mix of receivers that are going to be Trimble JV over the course of fourth quarter, first quarter, can you give us a sense? Is it possible for us to be at a healthier run rate from a mix standpoint exiting the first half of the year than what the run rate of the joint venture is now? Or are we really waiting until we close to pull that lever, Eric, that you spoke about earlier in the conversation today?

Eric Hansotia: Well, so there’s two elements to that. One is, is there a technical design work to be done? And the second one is how big is the order bank? And so on the positive side, there’s no technical redesign work to switch over, because we’re already offering the Trimble receiver on our products. It’s just a — we offer two versions, and we actually have the other brand in base as the base offering. We would switch that, have Trimble and orient the customer towards Trimble. So there’s no technical work to be done, but there is an order bank. And so whatever the order bank had been ordered over the last several months is what it is, and we just need to work through that. But we expect the deal to close in the first half of 2024.

If regulatory approval happens to go at the pace we anticipate. And that’s about the same time — that’s about the same size as our order bank. So we’re trying to organize it such that we could get a running start early into the new joint venture with much stronger rates of Trimble take rates.

Jerry Revich: That’s great. And can I ask on an unrelated question in Brazil. The industry year-to-date retail for 180-plus horsepower tractors down 8%. Your shipments are up over 20%. Is that how much share you’re gaining? Or can you just flesh that out a little bit in terms of your market position now? And can you touch on where do you expect the margin rate to be in that region relative to your other regions on your normalized framework, considering the 20% that you’re running at now?

Greg Peterson: Yes, Jerry. Some of that increase in terms of our sales was shipments to our dealers, and we talked about our dealer inventories kind of normalizing. So, some of it related to kind of restocking. But you’re right in terms of — especially when it comes to the higher horsepower categories for tractors, sprayers, and planters. I would add in there, too, in terms of market share gains. The Fendt brand has done really well in Brazil as we’ve launched it, and we have aggressive growth targets. And to be honest, we’re actually ahead of those growth targets. So a good bit of that share gain a little bit of it is also restocking of our channel down there.

Damon Audia: And Jerry, in regard to your margin question, again, South America has done exceptionally well, and again, you followed us long enough. We were in a money-losing position there years ago. We’ve taken that business as part of the strategy, mixing up to generate these 20%-plus margins. Again, a little bit of that is ahead of themselves because they’ve been very good in pricing and ahead of material cost and we have been giving those dealer incentives. As I said, in the fourth quarter, we expect that to come down more into, I would guesstimate, 17%, 18% margin range. I think over the long-term, I’ll say, in a more normalized environment, we would expect the margins in South America to be more in that mid-teens sort of range over the longer-term when we get into what I’ll call more of a normal run rate. But the balance of this year, we still expect it to be above that year as we enter the fourth quarter.

Operator: The next question is from Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Please go ahead.