Afya Limited (NASDAQ:AFYA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

I think that this can be related to the new brand that now it’s all the campuses working under the umbrella of Afya. So a very good campaign and a strong intake coming from all the other health programs, both online on campus and online programs. So for the second question about the Mais Médicos 3 schedule. So we are expecting to deliver the proposal now by the current schedule by July of this year. And the answer will be only beginning of 2024 with the new change 2025. I’m sorry. And by the new changing we have, the change was from the previous one. We got 36 opportunities to bid in order to participate on the public bid. And now with the change that each institution can only offer for one state that’s reduced to 36 from 36 to 23 campuses that will be allowed to bid for the Mais Médicos 3.

So that’s all the updates on this front, okay.

Renata Couto: If I may add two points here Mirela. The first one regarding the Mais Médicos. Yes, we can bid for less campus, but all the competitive players also can bid for less campus. So in the end of the day, we will be less competitive than we thought before. And regarding the first question, I would also like to add that we established the prices to increase around 4.9% when we started our intake process. But now we can see that on average, we should see price increases over than 5.8% considering the maturation of new tickets and also the ticket increase across all campuses. That’s it.

Mirela Oliveira: Thank you, guys.

Renata Couto: So the next question will come from Jessica Meller from JPMorgan. Jessica, you may now talk.

Jessica Meller: Hello, good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two as well. So first, what is the outlook for digital education margins in 2024? And also, should we continue to see continued education expanding in 2024? What is the outlook for this segment? Thank you.

Luis Blanco: Hi Jessica, it’s Blanco speaking here. As a whole, we see in our three segments, margin expansions during 2024. Starting with the continued educational, what we see that we’re going to expand margins because we are having leverage, leveraging, operational leverage operations. We established new campuses, this campus being fulfilled with students. So we can get more efficiency on this campus regarding our graduate courses. Regarding our digital service, what we see that with the expansions of our service, the expansions in our B2B users and the new B2B contracts, we are going to see increasing in margins year over year as well. And in undergrad, we have the fact that we finalized the integrations of UNIT in last November.

So it will be the first year that will be 100% of FITS having UNIMA/FITS FCM Jabotão being 100% integrated. So we’re going to have expansions on these three segments. And on top of that, on holding level, we established last year our zero budget project and we are going to run our zero budget during 2024. So with these scenarios, we are comfortable to give this guidance of 2024, whereas implied expansions in terms of EBITDA margins for 2024, if you compare to 2023.

Virgilio Gibbon: Jessica, just adding here. So based on our guidance here, that our top line is moving close to 12%, around 12%, and the bottom line growing 16% year-over-year. That is a combination of around 10% growth coming from undergrad, year-over-year, pure organic, 50% coming from volume, 50% come from attrition. On continuing medical education, it’s around 20% organic growth and digital services around 30% growth expected to 2024. And all the three segments, we are seeing margin expansion as expected also in our guidance.

Jessica Meller: Very clear. Thank you very much.

Virgilio Gibbon: Thank you.

Renata Couto: [Operator Instructions] The next question will come from Lucas Nagano from Morgan Stanley. Nagano, you may now go.

Lucas Nagano: Good evening. Thanks for taking our questions. We have two questions. The first one is related to digital services growth. B2B seems to be growing at a consistent rate, but there was an acceleration in B2B sales growth in Q4 compared to the rest of the year. Can you give us some color on the initiatives on B2B, the challenges to help us better understand the growth rates from there? And the second question is related to M&A. If you could comment about a potential return in M&A, like how active is the pipeline, if discussions are somewhat returning as rates fall, and if you see upside in the current multiples. Thanks.

Virgilio Gibbon: Hi, Lucas. Virgilio here. So first on B2B business to physician contracts, I think that the constant growth here is much more related across selling, upselling our solutions as we have a very large penetration under the, or at least our biggest penetration solution, that is WhiteBook from PEBMED. That’s almost 80% of physician between one to five years after graduation that are using this solution. So the opportunity here is more upselling of other solutions and also cross selling, continuing medical education for these clients, for these physicians. On B2B, we are collecting the hanging fruit from the lending expanding strategy. So as we said in the past that we are just experiencing our relationship with big pharma companies, now we have multiple contracts with very large companies and we also with a higher value from each company.

So the B2B contracts this year grew more than 60% pure organic. So it’s a huge opportunity. And the sales, the opportunity that we are seeing on our pipeline for 2024 is even higher here. So it’s keeping a very good trend and the growth will be boosted for sure by B2B contracts along 2024.