Aflac Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Max Broden: Yes. We certainly expect the continued decent velocity of the labor force and so that will continue to be there. But at the same time, we do expect the recovery overall in our persistency going into 2023 relative to 2022.

Fred Crawford: I think you have to put it in perspective, too. This was largely focused on large accounts, the loss of large accounts, which will happen from time to time in the group business and the group business represents 15% of our earned premium. So in other words, look at our earned premium. It was down 0.2% in the fourth quarter. It was down 0.8% or less than 1% for the full year. That’s not what we want. We want growth in earned premium. But we can recover from periods of week persistency. We have to focus on it. We have to bring it back. But the largest lapse rates were in the group business, which currently represents a smaller portion of our earned premium and is the fastest-growing part of our company so generated tremendous sales, which helps make up for some of that lapse rate. So we’re trying to hold the line on earned premium, which is the most important component to manage.

Ryan Krueger: And then just one question on the critical illness rider that you’re going to be operating in Japan. Can you help frame how big of an opportunity that is? And it seems like trying — I know that Japan Post is in a gradual recovery mode, but it seems like that would be a fairly meaningful opportunity given that you can add it to the existing policies.

Dan Amos: Yes, I’d like Kite to answer that or Yoshizumi to cover that.

Koichiro Yoshizumi: This is Yishizumi. I will cover your question. We are currently planning to launch this lump-sum serious disease rider in April in Atria. But then that assumes that this product will be approved by the SSA, This product responds to customers’ needs of having to want to prepare against, not only cancer, but also for cerebral vascular diseases as well as heart diseases. And the Japan Post Group as well as with Aflac, we are trying to fully prepare to launch this product. And as you know, the Japan Post sales is gradually recovering. And what we are expecting is that this new rider will also help accelerate sales and recovery of the Japan Post.

Masatoshi Koide: So let me just add a little bit here. This is Koide. And this new rider that is to be attached to cancer product was jointly developed by Aflac and the Japan Post Group as part of our strategic alliance collaboration. That’s all from me.

Operator: The next question comes from…

Dan Amos: Excuse me, let me just make one other comment. I don’t think the rider is going to be that much premium. But what it does is it gives an opportunity to get with the salespeople and go back to everyone telling them what we’ve got, which will ultimately help sales of the cancer policy as well. So I would look at it that way. Now that’s just my viewpoint. Thanks.

Operator: The next question comes from Wilma Burdis of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Wilma Burdis: This is Wilma. Maybe you could give us some color on how modestly higher interest rates in Japan will impact Aflac in the longer run.

Fred Crawford: I think it may be good for Brad island to talk about that. It’s largely an investment question.