Aflac Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ryan Krueger: Thanks. And then on the reinsurance transaction, the transaction you did last year, I think, freed up $900 million of capital. But then I think around half of it or so was retained and then the other half was available for redeployment to shareholders. On this next transaction, would you expect closer to all of it to be available to return to shareholders?

Max Broden: We will deploy the capital appropriately in the respective business units, and if we have good opportunities to deploy the capital there, we will do so. If we feel that we have significant surplus capital, it will be moved up to holding company. And the holding company will deploy it in the different sort of capital distributions that the holding company generally does, i.e., dividends, buybacks, et cetera.

Ryan Krueger: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question will come from Suneet Kamath with Jefferies. You may now go ahead.

Suneet Kamath: Thanks, good morning. I just wanted to follow up to Tom’s question on the US reserve releases. It sounded like some of the benefit here was lower hospitalizations in the US due to COVID. And I just want to understand, are you assuming that kind of that lower level of hospitalization sort of persist going forward? Or are you assuming some sort of reversion to historical trend?

Max Broden: Let me kick off on that question, and I would ask Al Riggieri to fill in any blanks and add his color as well. But the fact of the matter is that we have seen lower levels, generally speaking, in terms of hospitalizations come through. And we’ve also seen changes in the way treatments are being done, i.e. more outpatient treatments as well. So we believe that we have seen a shift in both the way hospitals are operating and also the way individuals are going for their treatments. And we have factored that in to some extent.

Al Riggieri: Yeah. This is Al Riggieri. Just to add in a little bit on that. Remember, the COVID period dropped all hospital utilization, treatment patterns. Many of that during COVID would have some ups and downs during the period as hospitals had more capacity and people would return and get elective surgeries and all that. What we did this year was begin to recognize that 2022 was the first year in the United States where you would say that the pandemic was kind of in the rearview mirror. So we broadened the experience for 2022. We did still remove the experience, very low experience during COVID period. We brought in the post-COVID period, we called it, for 2022. And as Max was saying, continued to see even in that period in ’22, that we did have lower experience. So we’ve built that into the experience base or updating the assumptions.

Suneet Kamath: And I think, Max, you said you factored some of that into your reserve. Is it — does that mean that if things sort of persist the way they are, that there would be the potential for some more reserve releases down the road?

Max Broden: We believe that we have adequately reflected sort of the new paradigm or the new experience that we’re seeing now into our models. Now, please remember, these are obviously models. So what that means is that if these trends were to improve further than what we have experienced to date, there is the potential for further unlocking, favorable or negative. It can go the other way as well. We believe that we have reflected it to our best — the best way we can, given the data that we see. And it’s important that we do reflect it to the best way we can. But I also want to make sure that you understand that these are estimates and they can go both ways.

Suneet Kamath: Yeah. No, that makes sense. My other one is on Japan and the earned premium drop of 1.7% sort of adjusted. I would have thought at some point, the impact of the paid-up policies would sort of have run its course. And I know some of those policies were very long-dated, but I believe that they were sold quite a bit ago. So are we getting closer to the point where that impact is expected to fall off?