Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE:AMG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

And then as Tom said, really what we’re trying to do is grow our cash flow and our economic earnings per share, which we did in 2022 and in 2021. And the drivers are multiple drivers, because AMG’s model is unique. We can see those drivers come from affiliate performance, we can see it come from flows, we can see it come from new investments, or we can see the compounding effect of share repurchases. And in this period that I just described, we got three of those four drivers and they were pretty significant to our earnings profile.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Dan Fannon: Thanks. Good morning. Wanted to follow-up on the liquid alternative book, but focus on quants. And given the success and performance improvements you’ve seen over the last basically two years, do you think that we’re going to be talking about this business or remove the ex-quant discussion in 2023? And maybe talk about the discussions you’re having with clients and how you think about gross sales for that portion of your business in kind of this year or next? Yes, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Jay Horgen: Yes. Good morning, Dan. Thanks for your question. Good question. Yes. So, we have had outstanding performance in liquid alternative strategies. And I think you’re right to point it out, we’ve been reporting kind of an ex-quant flow profile for some time. It’s a slightly more nuanced situation because some of that quant with long-only global equities, and so, to my prior point, we are still seeing some risk-off in those strategies, albeit that pie — part of the pie has gotten smaller. So, it very well could be that we kind of just go back to straight up flows in 2023 because the liquid alternative strategies of the quant side have just excellent performance. And we do think that they’ve been underrepresented in client allocations.

So, we do think that’s going to change. Now, look, it takes time for those allocations to change. And if just conversations and activity at those affiliates are an indicator, we’re having increased level of searches, increased level of conversations around putting more of these strategies into portfolios. And we think those — we think portfolios need these types of strategies. Clearly, if you were under allocated to liquid alts especially in absolute return trend, macro, multi-strat in 2022, your portfolio performed much worse than those that had a fair allocation to these strategies. So, we do see in ’23 and in ’24 increasing organic flows into liquid alts. And our performance is just really good, almost categorically, Systematica, AQR, Capula, Garda, Winton, they all had excellent performance in ’22.

Most of those firms had great performance in ’21, and their one, three, five and 10-year numbers all look very competitive with either their benchmarks or even markets like the S&P. So, we do see increasing organic growth into these strategies. And not to lessen the discussion around private markets, which are also on our alternatives bucket, when you think about private markets, we have a number of sort of specialty areas within private markets, including Peppertree, which was a business that we made investment late last year in the communications infrastructure, as well as a private debt manager in Comvest and a number of other high-quality businesses in that segment, which really are still experiencing significant growth and significant fundraising.

So, just generally our alternatives area, which comes with higher fees, as Tom said, in many cases, longer lockups, the chance for performance fees, we see that driving our growth going forward.