Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE:AMG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So that’s just excellent paper for us and really gives us a lot of flexibility. And then the remainder is well laddered senior institutional and bank debt maturing over the course of the next 7 years or so. We’re currently running comfortably below our baseline 2x leverage levels. And net of cash, that long duration $1.1 billion is about 70% of our total balance sheet exposure in terms of leverage. As we think about this February maturity, as we’ve talked about in the past, we’ve been holding match duration treasuries against that, and we are planning to pay that bond off in the first quarter. And that’s really a function of some of the EBITDA that’s been capitalized away from us at very attractive rates and just rightsizing our overall debt level.

Importantly, though I used the word earlier, optionality, and that’s something that we feel very strongly about. We always have the ability to re-lever. We have the $1.25 billion revolver. We have clear access to public debt markets. And I think the primary reason you’d see us relever in the future would be if we saw a series of high-quality growth investments come across in terms of new investments, the ability to put capital to work in new product launches, that would probably give us the opportunity to want to put some leverage back in the system. And obviously, lots of those opportunities would come with incremental cash flow as well. So in terms of capital we have to put to work. Today, we have more than $500 million of cash above and beyond contemplated debt repayment and our repurchase guidance that can be deployed towards growth investments over the next several quarters, and that translates into more than $1 of incremental earnings power.

And of course, as we go into 2024, the business will continue to generate substantial cash flow. Now all that said, even with all the opportunities in front of us, as we’ve shown over the last 5 years, we’ve been very disciplined. And if we don’t end up finding great growth investments over the medium term, I think we have a demonstrated ability to return capital through repurchases and both of those opportunities give us the chance to drive earnings per share growth over time. Yes. And I’ll just pick up there. I mean, we are disciplined and we want to emphasize that disciplined nature. I think the important thing for us is to invest our shareholders’ capital for growth and with returns that we believe are in the mid-teens for our investors.

But to the extent that we don’t find those new investments, we will return capital and we have returned capital. So just — so everyone’s tracking over the last 5 years, we invested $1.6 billion in growth investments and returned over $2 billion in capital through repurchases. And we expect that, that pattern will continue. I think our goal is to increase the growth investments. But in all cases, we’ll be disciplined. Thanks, Brian.

Thomas Wojcik: Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Wojcik Brown with KBW. So I wanted to switch over to the equity side of the business. So that’s about 43% of your EBITDA today and 26% from the global equity side. So the full pressure there continues to be unrelenting really for the industry and still a challenge for you guys as well. I guess in light of some of those mega trends that you referenced, how are you really thinking about the equity side of the business, specifically the global equities piece. Is that something that can start to see a bit of an improvement here as we look out to 2024, what are you maybe seeing or hearing from the institutional investors as they think about their broader asset allocations and what that could mean for the flow picture there?

Jay Horgen : Yes. So I’m going to have Tom start with the detail, and I do have a couple of comments that I’ll come back to after that.

Thomas Wojcik: Yes. Thanks for your question, Mike. I think it starts, as you mentioned, with the overall industry dynamic and the environment, and I spoke to this a bit in the answer to a previous question, but I think clients are really challenged in terms of how they’re thinking about the global equity market environment today. So the first thing that I think really needs to happen to see some stabilization and flows for the industry to see some stabilization in the overall global economy, both from a macroeconomic perspective as well as from a geopolitical perspective. The second thing, of course, is you do have to have good performance. And we have the benefit of excellent long-term performance across many of our global equity managers but certainly some more challenging near-term performance.

So seeing some near-term stabilization and performance to go alongside the quality of brands and the quality of long-term track records that many of our affiliates exhibit would also go a long way toward helping us there. The other thing is we continue to be in a market that’s changing. And the way that clients, both on the institutional side as well as the wealth side, are looking to implement these strategies into portfolios and are looking to consume these alpha streams in terms of wrappers, I think, continues to evolve. And that’s an area that we’re also spending a tremendous amount of time on with our capital formation efforts and through our affiliate product strategy and development group, we’re thinking more about the right ways to deliver some of these unique investment capabilities to end clients, exploring new wrappers, really thinking through the right way to deliver and implement these strategies into portfolios.

So I think we have some tools at our disposal. We have some changes that need to happen in terms of the overall market dynamic and client preferences — but overall, we have an extremely strong bench of long-term track records that we know that clients will demand when we get to a place in the environment that ultimately is a bit more constructive for some of these strategies. Yes. And I think I’ll summarize one of the things that Tom said by saying we have a firm view here that the next 10 years of investing in sort of differentiated equities. It’s going to look very different than the prior 10 years. I think the market environment is completely different. — risk-free rates, much higher, higher volatility, more asset dispersion. And we think that, that’s actually good for fundamental managers.

I think everyone knows that AMG has always had more of a value and quality bias within the equity book. And we think that plays well to the environment that we’re in or heading in into. And there is obviously the macro backdrop that Tom just mentioned, but that’s going to change over time, too. And given the differentiated strategies that our Affiliates offer and the entrepreneurial nature and the ownership mindset of the businesses by being independent firms, we think those are the firms that clients worldwide will turn to for their active equity portfolios. Thank you. Operator Thank you. Mr. Horgan, there are no other questions at this time. I’ll turn the floor back to you for final comments. Well, again, thank you all for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

Operator: Thank you. This concludes today’s conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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