AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Helane Becker: Okay. That’s really helpful. And then just for my follow-up question. Like, I understand the whole share repurchase idea, and it makes perfect sense, but could you take the Company private and borrow at the same cost that you borrow as a public company? And does it make any sense to go down that path?

Aengus Kelly: Well, I think, look, overtime, as we generate the type of capital and cash flow that we’re generating, we’re going to keep buying back more and more of the Company if the opportunity continues to present itself. And if you look at our past behavior, Helane, that’s what we did. To do a levered buyout now, I think that will be challenging on our balance sheet. But if you just simply look at the quantum of capital that this business is generating every year and for that matter, has generated for 15 years, over some period of time, we will get there or thereabouts, I suspect.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Catherine O’Brien with Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O’Brien: Gus, maybe coming back to a comment you made earlier about I think any airline team worth their salt now those that the OEMs apply deliver less than what they’re telling them. We’ve actually had a couple of U.S. airline management teams talk about needing to be more proactive in managing their positions in the skyline — further into the future than they have historically, just given how long those lead times are and the persistent delays, AerCap, of course, has a very large order book, starts to peter out in 2027, although, of course, maybe that’s a moving target. How do you think about future orders if airlines start to try to get in line earlier than usual? I know it’s only a comment from a couple of airlines now, but does that impact your thinking at all?

Aengus Kelly: No, really, no, I mean the only thing that we think about is how to create value for our shareholders. As I said at one of the conferences recently, my shareholders pay my wages. The shareholders of Boeing and Airbus definitely do not. And so, we are more than happy to order aircraft when we believe that the price is right for the risk we’re taking. There are plenty of ways to grow in this business. It can be sale leasebacks. It can be orders from the manufacturers. It can be M&A. It can be repurchase of shares, return of capital to our shareholders. But one thing we will never do is grow for the sake of growth. As I said many times, there’s always a bunch of clouds hanging around the tens in Farnborough and La Borger waiting to order aircraft when everyone else is there.

That’s not the time to be ordering airplanes. The last time we ordered a significant number of airplanes was in March of 2020 when we ordered Neos. That is when you buy. That’s also in the same environment where we bought GECAS. So, great discipline is required and that discipline is dealing with the manufacturers, but just overall in the capital structure, realizing why you’re here. You’re here for your shareholders and no one else.

Catherine O’Brien: That’s great for the shareholders on the line, who appreciate that one. Maybe just one on the guidance repeat, and I don’t want to sound too greedy because you guys beat my numbers on both core and gains or not core, but x gains and with gains. But on my math year-to-date, adjusted EPS x gains is about $6.20. So your $8 guidance implies a small step down in 4Q EPS gains versus 3Q. Is there something on timing of leases expenses or something we should be aware of or power by the hour rolling off? Or perhaps there’s just some element of conservatism on timing of deliveries versus sales given everything going on in the supply chain.

Pete Juhas: Sure. So power by the hour, I think, will be about the same in the fourth quarter, maybe slightly down. But we did have a benefit, Cathy, this quarter, a $44 million benefit on the tax line, and that was basically the release of a deferred tax liability that had been had set up a while ago and realized we should be releasing. So that’s about $0.20, give or take, this quarter, which helped the earnings. But really, the answer is no. I mean there’s no change in the environment and nothing noteworthy about the fourth quarter as we see it. I think — could we do better than $8? Hopefully, we will do better. And you’ve seen that’s the way it’s turned out during the course of the year, whether on the core — whether on the — excluding gains or with gains as well. So yes, I’m hopeful that we can.

Operator: We’ll go next to Hillary Cacanando with Deutsche Bank.

Hillary Cacanando: Just on the GTF issue, I know the maintenance is the airline’s responsibility. But I have some investors ask if there could be a scenario where an airline that hasn’t affected aircraft on lease, expiring next year, decide to return the aircraft back to the lessor people inspection. Could that actually happen that you saw with the burden of GTF inspection actually fall in the last for?

Aengus Kelly: No. The — on the unlikely event that an airplay must be handed back, which is highly unlikely. But in the unlikely event it was under the lease, the airline is obligated, certainly in our leases, to return the engine in the condition it received us, which would be full life conditioned. They either have to do that as a full repair or give us the cash in kind. So, we will not be out of pocket. That burden then will ultimately fall upon Raytheon and Pratt & Whitney.

Hillary Cacanando: Got it. Okay. So even if they do return it to you, they have to return it in the condition, the on that. Okay. Got it. And then in the next year, I know you have some maturities coming up early next year. I was wondering if you kind of go over your capital market strategy for next year.

Pete Juhas: Sure. So if you look at this year, I mean we’ve come both to the capital markets funding, but also done a number of other financings outside the capital markets, so unsecured bank loans, secured bank loans, a small amount of ECA financing, et cetera. And we’ll look to do the same thing next year. And I’d say that probably means three to four trips to the market or markets and we will try to vary that. But that’s kind of how we’re looking at it. And I think when you look at it in total, the total amount of financing that we’ll do next year is pretty much the same as what we’ve done over the last 12 months.

Operator: We’ll take your next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

Vincent Caintic: I wanted to talk about the lease extensions of the economics, so very interesting to hear about the 80% to 90% of the activities, lease extensions. Just wondering the lease extension versus, say, a new aircraft delivery is the economics similar to that? Or are you may be able to get higher lease rates or just maybe if you can compare and contrast the two?