AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Terry Ma: Got it. That’s helpful. And then, you guys raised the guide X gain on sale toward the high-end, but it just still feels pretty conservative to me just given what you did in Q1. I understand there’s some one-time items. So, maybe can you just walk through what’s contemplated in the guide for the rest of the year and maybe just speak to where the areas of conservatism are.

Peter Juhas: Sure. Well, I’d say across the board, if you look back at the line items that I presented last quarter, I’d say we’re pretty similar on most of them for the full year. We did have some higher maintenance revenue during the first quarter. That was due to higher cash collections as well as the timing of events. And as we’ve talked about many times, maintenance can move around. That can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. So, maintenance came in a little stronger in the first quarter. We had a little bit higher other income in the first quarter as well. So, those were some of the drivers and a small tax benefit that I mentioned. So, those were some of the things that helped in the first quarter. I’d say as we look out for the rest of the year, and I mentioned this when we gave the guidance on the last earnings call, we do have some contingencies in there for defaults and things like that.

And so, those are still in there and we’ve kept them in for the rest of the year. Hopefully, we’ll do better than those, but at this point at this point we haven’t changed any of that.

Terry Ma: Great. Thank you.

Aengus Kelly: Sure.

Operator: We’ll go next to Jamie Baker with JP Morgan.

Jamie Baker: Good afternoon, everybody. So, I was hoping — Gus, I was hoping you could give us an example of where lease rates are coming in now on late 2025 expiring deals or even early 2026 relative to the economics that were captured in today’s results. We’re always being asked about the lag time between signing deals and when it hits the income statement. Obviously, a portion of today’s results were locked in, what, 18 to 24 months ago. Just hoping for a nice clean example, apples-to-apples, so I don’t know, tenure 320s, where renewals are coming in now for leases that aren’t going to hit until late next year.

Aengus Kelly: Well, Jamie, the good news is we’re going to answer that in some detail next week at the Investor Day. Peter Anderson, our Chief Commercial Officer, is going to give examples of 320s, 787s, which are our main aircraft types and make up more than the majority of our fleet, and he’ll show you there the rate of increase and how it’ll — when it will come into the revenue line.

Jamie Baker: Okay. That super helpful. We will there. That’s helpful. I mean, sure you agree — I mean, I think that’s the way at least most of my investors are trying to think about it, so you’ve given us something to look forward to. So, quick follow-up on the 35 aircraft that you sold in the quarter. Can you comment on any sort of geographic skew? I think at past quarters, we saw a bit of a sort of a North American emphasis. Just wondering if that’s still the case? I realize it wasn’t an enormous number of aircraft.

Aengus Kelly: Well, it was widespread, but again, as we’ve mentioned in prior quarters, our exposure into China is coming down, and by dollar value, that would have been the biggest component of sales, would have been China-based sales.

Jamie Baker: Okay, helpful. See you next week. Thank you.

Aengus Kelly: Thank you.

Operator: We’ll go next to Hillary Cacanando with Deutsche Bank.

Hillary Cacanando: Hi, thank you for taking my question. Could you buy back any shares so far in the second quarter? And in your guidance, are you assuming repurchases of $500 million authorized last quarter, and perhaps any other repurchases beyond that in your guidance? And also, I was wondering if you will consider paying a dividend as well, given that leverage to clients seems to be outpacing, maybe the ability to buy back shares?

Peter Juhas: Sure, Hillary, thanks. So, we’ve bought back around 1.2 million shares in the second quarter so far. So, year-to-date, that’s about 5.5 million shares for about $435 million. In terms of the guidance that we’ve provided, so we’ve assumed that we would spend our full authorization for the year, so we’ve got around $350 million left in that. And then also, just as we generate excess capital, we would assume that we would deploy a lot of that as well for share repurchases during the year. Obviously, the amount that we do ultimately will depend on how much — how we perform, how much excess capital we generate, and also other opportunities as well. So, that’s really where that stands. And then, I guess in terms of thinking about capital allocations, that is something that we’ll talk about next week as well, I think, further.

Hillary Cacanando: Okay, got it. And then, there was an article in the journal this morning saying that Embraer is exploring plans to introduce an aircraft to rival Boeing 737 and A321 in the narrowbody market, according to sources. So, just wanted to get your thoughts on how likely you think that is, and if you think that would be good for the market to have another player come in, and ultimately, would that be good for the lessors?

Aengus Kelly: I mean, Hillary, I think over the long-term, it may well be helpful. However, I doubt we’ll see anything in material numbers before the end of the 2030s. It’s just impossible to develop a new aircraft, particularly if you need a new engine technology. You would have to be well down the track already to have that delivering this side of 2030. So, that’s not happening. It’ll be mid-2030s at best if they even do it. The financial resources required to do that are extraordinary to compete with the capability of Airbus and Boeing. I think it’s a long shot, to be honest, and even if it does come off, I don’t think it’ll be relevant for the next 15 years.

Hillary Cacanando: Got it. Just one quick follow-up question. Then, where does China’s Comac stand in terms of the people’s perception of that and where you think that product is going?

Aengus Kelly: You’ve seen the announcements of recent sales to the Chinese majors of the Comac. Again, though, you must bear in mind that this is such a long, long journey to become a global player in aerospace manufacturing. They have one airplane today that is a technology shift behind the Neo and the MAX. For them to compete with the Neo and the MAX, they would have to have three or four aircraft in the same family. That’s not even in development yet. So, again, to my point, we all hope there’ll be competition, but I suspect it would be well into the late 2030s, maybe mid-2030s, given they have an airplane in operation before — I think it’s late 2030s, to be honest — before, like in Brazil, you would have a global competitor to Boeing and Airbus, and that’s best case.

Hillary Cacanando: Got it. Great. Thank you so much.

Operator: We’ll go next to Helane Becker with TD Cowan.