Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Lisa Su: Yeah. So, I mean, Joe, I think we updated our revenue expectations this quarter from our original number of $2 billion to $3.5 billion to try to give some bounding on some of the discussion out there. The way to think about the $3.5 billion is these are customers that we’re working with, who have given us firm commitments on what they need. As you know, the lead times on these products are quite long. So, it’s important to have those forecasts in early and we have a strong order book. So, that gives us good confidence to exceed the $3.5 billion. From a supply chain standpoint, our goal is always to build more supply we — and so, from that standpoint, we have also worked with our supply chain partners and secured significant capacity.

Think about it as first half capacity is tight and more comes on in the second half of the year, but we’ve certainly made more progress there. So, we do have more supply, and we’re going to continue to work with our customers on their deployments and we’ll update that number as we go through the year.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Toshiya Hari: Hi. Thank you for taking the question. I had one on the MI300 as well, Lisa. I guess, first of all, how should we think about the quarterly trajectory beyond Q1? You talked about Q1 being up sequentially. Is it fair to assume kind of a straight line as we progress through the balance of the year? Or is it more second half skewed? How should we think about that? And I guess more importantly, some of the cloud potential customers that have yet to officially sign-up for or sign-off on the MI300. I guess what’s the sticking point? Is it just a function of time and you just need a little bit more time to go back-and-forth and tweak things or is there a software kind of concern? I guess what’s holding them back at this point?

Lisa Su: Yeah, Toshiya, thanks for the question. So, first on the MI300 trajectory. I think you would expect that revenue should increase every quarter from now through sort of the end of the year, but it will be a bit more second half weighted and part of that is just customers as they’re finishing up their qualifications in their lines as well as sort of how our supply chain is ramping. So, yes, it should increase each quarter, but be a bit more second half weighted. And then, to your comment about customers, look, we are engaged with all of sort of the large customers. These are all folks that know what’s really well, given our deep relationships in EPYC. I think people just have different adoption cycles as they consider what they’re trying to do in their roadmap.

But I view this as still very, very early innings for us in this space. And I think the question was asked earlier. I think the key is this is not just about MI300 conversation. But it really is about sort of our long-term multi-generational roadmap. And so, that’s the context on which we’re working with our largest customers, as well as, as you know, there’s a lot of demand coming from folks that are more AI centric and not necessarily typical cloud customers, but more enterprise or let’s call it AI-specific companies that we’re also very well engaged with.

Toshiya Hari: Got it. That’s super helpful. And then as my follow-up, maybe one for Jean on the gross margin side. You’re guiding Q1 to 52%. I’m curious, again, I’m sure you’re not going to give quantitative guidance beyond Q1, but how to think about the trajectory for Q2 and beyond? I’m pretty sure you’re working through some kinks as it pertains to the Instinct ramp. Hopefully, that improves over time. So that should be a tailwind. FPGAs perhaps the second half turns for the better. And you’ve got server CPU volume growth throughout the year. So, it feels like you’ve got multiple tailwinds as we think about gross margin progression on a sequential basis. But what are the potential headwinds as we move throughout 2024? Thank you.

Jean Hu: Yeah, Toshiya, thank you for the question. Yeah, you’re absolutely right. We have some puts and takes that impact our gross margin. We guided the Q1, 120 basis points higher than Q4 sequentially, primarily because the higher Data Center contribution actually more than offset the decline of Embedded business in Q1. Going forward, the way to think about it is as you said is the major driver is going to be Data Center business is going to grow much faster than other segment. That mix change will help us to expand the gross margin nicely. I think you also are spot on, the Embedded coming back in second half, which will be a tailwind. With the Data Center GPU, we are at the very early stage of ramp. We are improving testing time yield and continue to expand gross margin and we expect to be accretive to corporate average.

So, those are all the tailwinds coming in the second half. I would say the headwinds side continue to be in the first half where we see Embedded business not only Q1 we see sequential decline, Q2 probably are going to be sequentially flattish versus Q1. That is a headwind for us. Because it does have a very nice gross margin. But overall, we feel pretty good about the trajectory of the gross margin improvement, especially second half.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Ross Seymore: Thanks for letting me ask the question. I wanted to get into the competitive environment. First on the Instinct side of things. How that’s going? It doesn’t seem to be slowing down your ramp whatsoever, but then also on the straight server CPU side of things. Lisa, you said you’re gaining share in that area. But as we think about future road maps, pricing incentives, those sorts of things, any meaningful change in the competitive environment that you’re seeing throughout 2024?

Lisa Su: Sure, Ross. So look, I think the environment for us is always competitive. So, I think that has not changed. If I look at the Instinct side, I think we have — I think we’ve shown that MI300 and our roadmap are actually very competitive. There are some places where let’s call it, it’s more even like in the training environment. But as we look at the inferencing environment, we think we have significant advantages. And that’s showing through in some of our customer work. So we think for both training and inference, we will continue to be very competitive. And then, as you go into the CPU side again, from our view, with each generation of EPYC, we’ve continued to gain share. I think, we exited the fourth quarter at record share for AMD.

And we’re still quite underrepresented in Enterprise. So I think there is an opportunity for us to continue to gain share as we go through 2024. From a competitive standpoint, what we see is Zen 4 is extremely competitive right now with Genoa, Bergamo, Siena. And as we go into Turin, we’re deep in the design in-cycle for Zen 5 and Turin and we feel very good about how we’re positioned.

Ross Seymore: Thanks for that. I guess as my follow up. On the Data Center side, another theme that’s been pervasive throughout 2023 at least was the GPU side driving out the CPU side. You mentioned that there is still a little bit of cloud digestion going on within your EPYC business. But where do you see that standing? I know you’re going to gain share, et cetera, but you guys fully benefit from the Instinct side for the Data Center GPU side, but what about on the CPU side of things? Is that headwind now behind us or is it still an issue?