The consensus of 22 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP)’s long-term earnings growth at 11.7%. Advance Auto Parts Inc has medium long-term debt at 32% of capital. Advance Auto Parts Inc is currently trading at a P/E of 15.4, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 18. If the earnings materialize as forecast, based upon forecasted earnings growth of 11.7%, Advance Auto Parts Inc’s share price would be $141.95 at the end of 2018 (brown circle on EYE Chart), which would represent a 10.7% annual rate of total return which includes dividends paid (yellow highlighting).
Earnings Yield Estimates
Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.
Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds illustrates that Advance Auto Parts Inc’s expected earnings would be 4.5 (purple circle) times that of the 10-year T-bond interest (see EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.
Summary & Conclusions
This report presented essential “fundamentals at a glance” illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.
Disclosure: Long AAP at the time of writing.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation. A comprehensive due diligence effort is recommended.
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