ADT Inc. (NYSE:ADT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

So I think while it’s not linear, it’s a step certainly in the trajectory for our 2025 goals. And we still are aligned with those 2025 goals things like $10 billion in revenue with $3 million in EBITDA taking our net leverage ratio to under three. Some of those factors — were some of the key factors. We’re paying out $1 billion of debt some of our commitments and our long-term goals.

Ashish Sabadra: That’s very helpful color. And if you don’t mind if I can just follow-up on that question around free cash flow as well. How do we think about the drivers for free cash flow going forward?

Don Young: Yes, sure. You’ll see our guide this year is $600 million to $700 million with including the benefits of the interest rate swaps. So a midpoint of $650 million, which represents about 20% year-over-year growth versus 2022. Our overall treatment for 2025 implied by $1 billion of potential cash flow. So we think we’re on that pace and we like that year-over-year growth consistent with the 20% that we grew in 2022. I think we’ve proven in 2022 the ability to deliver the cash flow, the movements in our SAC year-over-year and the revenue payback have us showing a clear line of sight to some of those goals, but especially the SAC, which is our biggest expense because cash output. We really like the revenue payback numbers are playing up. And some of the installation revenue is a big driver of that, especially, in the residential business. So when you add all those factors together it makes us feel good about the guidance on our way to the long-term goal.

Ashish Sabadra: That’s very helpful color. Thanks again.

Operator: This concludes the Q&A session of today’s call. I will now turn the call back over to the company’s CEO Jim DeVries for closing remarks.

Elizabeth Landers: And so — to as we have one more question from Manav, if you could squeeze him back in.

Operator: Manav, your line is open. Please go ahead. Manav, your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Hi. Good morning. This is Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. Thanks for taking questions. There’s been a lot of questions on specific drivers by business. But can I just read how do you recap the underlying assumptions and what the guidance contemplate from a macro standpoint, assuming a lower volume of housing relocations and higher interest rates, but what the broad macroeconomic assumptions are? And then also any help on how to think about sequential growth in margins given consideration to seasonality et cetera for 2023?

Don Young: Manav, can you repeat the last part of that about the seasonality I kind of caught the rest of it though. The last part of your question — can you repeat the last part of your question about seasonality

Unidentified Analyst: Yes. Yes. Just with regards to sequential growth in margin and how to think about that for in consideration of your guidance for full year 2023 with any impacts of seasonality.

Don Young: Got it. Okay. So overall how do we think about 2023 in the form of what’s going on with the macro fees? I mean as Jim mentioned there’s a bunch of different variables. As I think about the consumer business, while the home market rebound may be starting up, let’s assume it just flattened and the existing again that tends to be a net positive for us given the greater stickiness and the greater attachment to recurring revenue. Overall to some of the pricing that we’re seeing in the market, we’ve had some good trends especially on the IR fee or our revenue per unit in the home. So if you think about the consumer business, we see a bucking most of the trends with the macro given the customer portfolio that we target. The commercial business again given a robust backlog of over $420 million, we feel really strong about the new verticals that we’re in as well as the ability to knock down that backlog.