ADT Inc. (NYSE:ADT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

James DeVries: I think that’s fair, Brian. Super tough to predict. But all of the lead indicators that Ken mentioned really bode well for us. The devices, I think, I shared this on the last call the number of devices in a system correlates with retention. And our devices that are 10 or more devices in a system is about double right now than it was a couple of years ago. Ken mentioned an uptick in credit scores service backlog near record low. We’re getting more sophisticated on our own save offers. And so while we’re planning to hold serve come in right around where we are now, where we’ve got some cost for optimism given the positive lead indicators.

Brian Ruttenbur: Great. And then as a follow-up on the Google rollout on ADT+, I believe the plan was rolling out starting in the first quarter. When do you expect it to be fully rolled out for all new customers coming on board? Is it going to be 2023, beginning of 2024, maybe you can give us kind of some rough guidelines.

James DeVries: You bet. So the way that we’re staging it is that the self-install or DIY product with Google is now launched. And that’s with the integrated app that you’re familiar with Brian, later this year very late third quarter maybe fourth quarter, the intent is to roll out the product offering for our professional install product as well. So DIY is out and we’ll say Q4 for DIFM.

Brian Ruttenbur: Great. And then just one other quick question on solar. Are you seeing anything with the economy that’s slowing adoption of solar, or are you on plan or seeing an improvement kind of year-over-year from 2022 levels?

James DeVries: Yes. A lot of moving parts here. The housing market, the overall economy, the Inflation Reduction Act provides a bit of a tailwind. And I’d say net it’s probably a little softer demand than it might have been a year-ago. But yes, we’re still long-term bullish on solar. I mentioned this on our last call. I’m pleased with the progress the team is making. Jamie’s leadership is fantastic for us but there’s a lot of work to do here. And so I’m bullish on 2023 and even more so, as we continue to set the operating foundation to scale this business to size.

Brian Ruttenbur: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead. Manav, please go ahead your line may be on mute. Okay. We’ll move on to the next question and it’s from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Ashish Sabadra: Thanks for taking my question. I just had a multipart question about the 2025 goals. I’ll just ask them upfront. So the €“ like when we look at the midpoint of the 2023 guidance and the 2025 goals, it implies like 20% CAGR for revenue and 24%, 25% CAGR for free cash flow. So can you just talk about how should we think about that trajectory going forward? What will drive that kind of strong momentum and maybe some of the details that you provided but how important is Google and State Farm in helping deliver on those goals. Thank you.

Don Young: Sure. Thanks for the question Ashish. They’re coming off the back of our rate to 2022 I think our guidance for 2023, 5% revenue, 5% EBITDA and 20% of free cash flow growth. So your question really is how does that compare to our long-term growth? It’s not exactly linear, but I think we think it’s a great milestone to step in the right direction there. I think the revenue number you quote is probably a bit high versus what we shared at the Investor Day, but I think the way to look at it is a little bit more growth in the back-end from the solar business that base matures more in 2024 and 2025. The consumer business and the commercial business are coming out very strong in 2022s. We’re excited with that growth as well.