So the first thing that I’ll touch on are the types of analyses. I mean, there’s the Brad Tate, you know, Skyler Bloom models, and then there’s the Grossman math. But what I can tell you is that, look, we’re at a point right now where I think it’s really, the market is asking for more product. The clinicians have seen the product work well. So really it comes down to, can we produce more? We’re selling everything. We make both products, Senev and Bivigam. And honestly, Navi has been doing very well this year for us as well. And that’s a decent margin product. So really, this has been a hell of a start to the year. I mean, we’re sitting here May 9, and things just look great. But as far as the analyses, I mean, look, we have a good handle on the number of patients that could benefit from incentive.
And if you recall, the math is roughly, call it 250,000 to 500,000 PI patients. About half of them are on IG, and we estimate somewhere between, call it 15% to 30% of those have some chronic lung condition, have some significant comorbidity, that they’ve got a challenging course of treatment. Just on standard IG alone, most patients do very well, but we think that there could be in the order of ten to 30,000 people that can benefit from incentive. We haven’t even scratched the surface. So, you know, I think that we’ve demonstrated proof of concept, I think with some of the notes that I’ve been getting from investors this afternoon, very, very congratulatory thank you all very much. It’s better than the alternatives that you guys used to send me years ago.
But what I’ll say is that the demand is there. And I think I may have said this, Gary, at your conference. If not, maybe someone’s going to shoot me. But it’s like Rolex demand. I have no idea if it’s fabricated or not, but you can’t walk into a store and buy one. I mean incentive is all allocated out there. New patient starts our scheduled. We just have to make more product. I think the more we can make and with our seven to twelve month production cycle time, that is shortening. But we’ve got the ability to and we’ve said it all the time. We have tomorrow’s newspaper. We know how much we’re making. We know what we can forecast. And we would not be increasing guidance the way that we are as strong as we are if we did not think that we can meet these targets.
So that’s that piece. What I’ll say about the payers. Someone’s breathing heavy on my line. If they can just go on mute. If you’re not me. Thanks. The payers, we’ve, we’ve identified what good looks like. I think that we have identified what appropriate use. We’re not seeing prohibitive barriers to entry right now. Coverage and access is good. It’s ongoing. Our advantage IG program, which is our patient assistance program, is being utilized and it’s helping people with their co pays. But I really think that when you look at the pharmacoeconomic value proposition, it resonates with the prescribers, it resonates with the payers. And you know, I think that we really characterize appropriate use very, very well. Ascendant website’s been updated.
If you haven’t taken a look, you should look@incentive.com and you know, I just truly believe that we’re out there and we’re saying, no, don’t use this product in everyone. It’s not for everybody. It’s just not. It’s for a patient that we believe that is immune compromised, has PI, has secondary immune deficiency, and then has complex comorbidities that are hard to manage. And I think that in this right patient population we’re not seeing a lot of barriers to getting patients on therapy. And then I think the last part of your question was still no competitors. No one that we see some of the competitors out there who have announced programs with specialty hyper immunes, they’re not doing well with their programs. They’re not doing well in general.
So I just think that we’re standing alone with our portfolio of products. We’ve got a unique share of voice, if you will, within the immune compromised patient space. You know, that that’s where we focus specifically and our ip is solid and you know, we feel very, very good that with respect to incentive and how it’s made and how we market it, there is no competition that we are aware of in the United States for the foreseeable term. So hopefully that answers the three parts of the question.
Gary Nachman: That was great. But just on the outlook beyond 2025, I mean you guys do a great job of even going out that far. But since you’re talking about it, when do you think you’re going to have enough visibility, you know, later this year into next year once you start to see what I would say, what I had. Adam?
Adam Grossman: No, Gary, I mean, look, we have ideas, obviously, but look, I need to see, it’s all about timing. When in my yield enhancement, conformance, lots going to be made. How do I get it on file? What’s the FDA going to say? I could sit here and predict, but I don’t need to. I’ve got enough growth coming that I hope to keep everyone happy for the near term. I think as we progress to the back half of this year, obviously we’ll will be thinking about 2026 guidance and look in due course, as Skylar was saying, we should be in a position. But again, I think the sky’s the limit. And if the sky is that $2 billion peak revenue opportunity, I mean look, I’ve got staff here that say to me, I hate the term, but they say, boss, we’re going to get you as much plasma as we possibly can.
And I say don’t call me boss, but let’s get as much plasma as we could possibly get. I mean that’s what we’re focusing on here. Everyone is working together, yield enhancement every single day. That’s what’s driving everybody’s excitement in and around the production campus here at the plasma centers. I mean it’s buzzing. I mean the donors are coming in the doors. Our new donor promotions, our promotions for the hyper immune donors are really taking off, as Brad was mentioning. And Brad hit on a key point, which is we’re retaining more donors than ever before and that’s a key to win the battle. So keep your pants on. We’ll get you the numbers, Gary, we’ll get them for you. But look, I think that you can hear the confidence in our prepared remarks.
