Liz Shea: Thanks, Mohit. Operator, next question, please.
Operator: Our next question comes from Vamil Divan with Guggenheim Securities. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst: This is (inaudible) on for Vamil. Thanks for taking my question. So my question is on Humira. I was curious, given the recent performance of company has had with the erosion since the introduction of biosimilars. I was wondering if you can now provide maybe a better sense around the company’s expectations on Humira’s longer-term tail revenues in both the US and ex-US markets. Thank you.
Rob Michael: Hi, it’s Rob. I’ll take that question. So we do expect that in the US tail will start to emerge in 2025 or 2026 timeframe. Keep in mind 2024 is the first full year for US biosimilars. We’ll have to see what happens with volume uptake this year and also where interchangeability lands. And ultimately, what does contracting look like next year. So, I wouldn’t expect us to quantify the tail this year. But it’s certainly possible, something we would do either in 2025 or 2026. As it relates to international, you’re seeing, I think this year, it’s a step-down of about $400 million. Half of that is really the last wave of markets like Canada, Puerto Rico where we’re seeing, I’d say, some incremental erosion we would expect this year.
And then the other half would be your typical international price erosion you see across therapeutic areas. So not really specific to biosimilars. And then the other quarter of it would be what we’re seeing is just the strength of Skyrizi and Rinvoq as these newer agents elevate standard-of-care, you see some share go to those newer agents. And so, probably the best way to think about international would be, if you want to adjust for half of the erosion this year as being more of the final waves, and then you get a sense of what could potentially be the ongoing beyond that. But we’ll be more specific, I think we need to see really how the US plays out with this being the first full year for biosimilars, before we can really give you more color.
But we’re very, very pleased with the progress we’ve made so far.
Liz Shea: Thanks, Dan. Operator, next question, please.
Operator: The next question comes from Carter Gould with Barclays. Your line is open.
Carter Gould: Great. Good morning, thanks for taking the questions. Two on the neuroscience portfolio. I guess first on 951. How should we think about that? Is that more sort of on growing the overall pie of device data therapies versus taking share from apomorphine and gels. And then, maybe looking a little bit longer-term, AbbVie has sort of three Phase 2 Alzheimer’s studies that are going to readout later this year or by early next year. Fully acknowledging the commercial challenges by the players in the market today and that’s some of these targets are now validated. How should investors think about these assets either individually or collectively and your level of excitement? Thank you.
Jeff Stewart: Yes. Hi, it’s Jeff. I’ll take the first question. So what we look at when we see this market at a macro — at a macro-level, you have a significant number of patients, 85% of patients are just on these oral medication. So, oral [indiscernible]. Okay. And they essentially need to consume more and more and more orals, and sometimes at the end of it they’re taken 12 pills a day, it’s very, very difficult to manage. But then they’re faced with a very difficult decision, which we kind of call like a surgical barrier. And that surgical barrier is to get any sort of more advanced relief, you either have to think about deep brain stimulation, which is a brain surgery or our own DUOPA, which is a GI surgery. So the way we see this market developing is we see that 951 starts to establish a very nice transition zone, because you don’t have — it’s a subcu.
So a new market segment that starts to emerge before bigger interventions like DBS or DUOPA. And obviously, the ability to basically move quicker to more relief from these chronic oral basically over treatment. So that’s how we see it. And as Roopal highlighted, we’re seeing some very nice uptake in Japan, where we launched late last year, and also in Germany and some of the first European launches. So that’s how the market is exactly playing out. We’re establishing essentially a new high efficacy category here with 24 hours of ongoing relief. You can do super specific dosing titration and the pump is much smaller and again, it’s a subcu injection that you move around every three days. So it’s a nice — it’s a nice opportunity for the company.
Roopal Thakkar: And maybe I’ll talk about the other assets that you mentioned in Alzheimers. First, 916, that’s our A beta antibody. What we like about that one thus far, the profile we’ve seen is a long half-life, which would be good to space out dosing. Potentially higher potency if that holds, and we see robust reductions in beta amyloid that could allow for subcutaneous dosing that’s spaced apart. And the other thing we are looking at is potentially lower ARIA. So if we see those three things over the course, I would say, end of this year, early next year, I think that, that would be quite exciting, because it would be a differentiated profile, again a better convenience and potentially better benefit-risk profile. So that’s 916.
552 is our SV2A that’s our oral medication in cognition that’s currently in Phase 2. And we anticipate readout at the end of this year, early next year. Now, that one is being studied in a setting where patient can be on a therapy already like an [Aricept] (ph), or nothing. And we would use the typical ADAS-Cog assessments along with a variety of others including other neuropsychiatric symptoms, like depression. So that’s another nice one that could combine with a variety of different assets in Alzheimers. The third one I’ll mention is around Emraclidine, which comes from Cerevel. They are at early stages right now in elderly patients. And the goal there would be an Alzheimer’s disease psychosis of the six million or so diagnoses, I would say around 40% of these patients present with symptoms of psychosis.
So with all the therapies that are in the clinic, we think we have a very nice complementary suite of options that could address numerous symptoms of Alzheimers, because it won’t be just one therapy that’s going to solve this. But more to come end of this year and into next year.
Liz Shea: Thanks, Carter. Operator, next question, please.
Operator: The next question comes from [Technical Difficulty]. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst: Thanks for the question. Just on the reaffirmed long-term guide, can I clarify if the Cerevel and ImmunoGen deals are in this 2029 guide given you included them in the 2024 guide? And you up Skyrizi and Rinvoq by $6 billion, migraine by $1 billion. If these are the pushes, what are the pulls in reaffirming that long-term guidance?
Rob Michael: So, this is Rob. I’ll take that question. Yes, we did include ImmunoGen and Cerevel in our long-term guide. The thing to keep in mind is, high-single-digits, when you think about the range that could represent, that’s around $10 billion between the low-end of the high-single-digits and the high-end of the high-single-digits. And so, there aren’t any pulls, what we’ve updated as we walk you through it is, we’ve increased the oral CGRP peak revenue, we’ve increased Skyrizi, Rinvoq and we’ve reaffirmed the others. So there’s nothing that we took down. But just keep in mind that you’ve got a pretty, pretty wide range. If you look at Street consensus, we’re encouraged that it continues to move up. It has moved up over the course of the last quarter, about $3 billion in 2029.
It’s nice to see that upward movement. But it’s still below what we expect. If you think that, that growth rate for the Street is just under 5%, we expect high-single-digits. And so, even with this update, as well as ImmunoGen and Cerevel, we’re still high-single-digits. But keep in mind, it’s a pretty wide range. And it would be, regardless industry-leading growth and we’re set up very well to continue delivering a very strong growth, and we’re setting ourselves very well to grow very nicely in the next decade as well.
