This presents a bullish case for premium apparel brands like Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE:RL), Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS), and Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH) which are directly correlated to consumer confidence, liquidity, and disposable income in the economy.
Coach! In for the game
The best thing about Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH) is its solid balance sheet. The company operates with little or no debt, and yet it is expanding ambitiously in India and China. With a net margin of 21.3%, and sales nearly $5 billion, the company is an absolute cash cow. Its quarterly net sales rose 4%, with only North America lagging with just 1% increase.
International sales rose 12%, but its operations in China recorded exceptional sales growth (40%). Although the company would be opening 25 new stores in North America, its management feels that growth lies in the emerging world.
To continue its growth momentum, management announced that Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH) would be opening 30 new stores in China this year, bringing the total count to 125 (a massive 31.6% increase), and expects its total square footage in China to increase by 35%. The company also plans to open 10 new stores in Japan (193 stores already operational), in order to boost in square footage by 10%. Altogether, Coach seems well poised for a session of exponential growth.
The company also has a share repurchase program worth $1.5 billion underway, which will be carried out by 2015. Since the company is already generating massive chunks of cash, the board will more likely boost its dividend payout by 11%. But that’s only speculation.
At the CMP, its shares yield 2.49% with a modest payout of 30.46%. Analysts expect its EPS to grow by 13.5% for the next 5 years, which means an investment can double in value in just over 5 years. Its shares trade at a forward P/E of 11.6 times and a PEG of 0.98, suggesting that its shares are undervalued. Barclays has an overweight rating for Coach, with a price target of $65 (35% premium).
Peer comparison
Kors also appears to be a solid growth pick. Its comparable same-store-sales in North America surged 41%, while sales in Japan spiked 103%. Its wholesale revenues rose 77.4%, while its retail sales jumped 66.8%. The company was able to record spectacular growth due to its series of expansions.
Kors has an impressive set of financial metrics, some of which have been shown in the table below.
| ROE | 52.35% |
| 5yr EPS growth estimate | 32.63% |
| Current Ratio | 4.8% |
| Sales past 5 years | 43.94% |
(Financial Metrics of Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS))
But the shares of Michael Kors have appreciated by nearly 32% over the last year, and at the CMP, its shares appear to be overvalued. Moreover, Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH) enjoys better margins and carries a modest yield.
| Company | Forward P/E | Net Profit Margin | Dividend Yield |
| Ralph Lauren | 18.98x | 10.36% | 0.9% |
| Michael KORS | 24.7x | 17.31% | -NIL- |
| Coach Inc (NYSE:COH). | 12.07x | 21.31% | 2.4% |
Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE:RL) loses out due to an expensive valuation, and significantly lower net margins. Its gross margin is greater than Kors, but its low net margin indicates an expensive operating business structure.
Conclusion
Although shares of Coach have lost nearly 33% of their value over the last year, I believe that there’s a significant upside potential in the stock. Of course, risk-averse investors should buy Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS), but as a contrarian play, Coach seems to be a great stock due to all the mentioned reasons.
The article A Value Play in the Apparel Industry originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Piyush Arora.
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