A Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Valuation of Tesla Inc (TSLA): Of Investment Regrets and Disagreements!

For some of you, the fact that there is a value here that justifies whatever your Tesla status is right now (long, short or just watching) should not be the end of your analysis. Each of these stories may be possible, but the tests you have to run, and I will prejudge your conclusions, is whether they are plausible. With each story, there are key questions that need answering:
 
– With the big auto stories, the key question will be whether Tesla can climb to the very top of the heap in terms of revenues, generally reserved for mass market companies, while earning operating margins that are usually reserved for smaller luxury auto companies?
 
– With the techy auto stories, the key question becomes whether a company that derives the bulk of its revenues from selling cars be profitable and reinvest like a tech company?
 
– With the FAANGy stories, the investment question becomes whether you should up front for a company on the expectation that it will be an exceptional company. It very well might make it to the top of the heap, but if it does not, you are set up for disappointment.
 
– With the MYB story, you are approaching the most dangerous place in valuation, where you pick and choose each assumption, without considering the ones you have already made. Put simply, is it even possible to build a company that generates revenues like Toyota, earns margins like Microsoft and invests more efficiently than any manufacturing company in history has ever done, while still preserving the low cost of capital of an auto company?