In this article, we will take a look at the 8 Best Undervalued Energy Stocks To Buy According to Analysts.
Following another eventful year for the global energy sector, 2024 continues the trend of disruptions, headwinds, and opportunities. The previous year concluded with a landmark agreement at COP28 to reduce global methane emissions, a significant contributor to worldwide emissions. Despite being one of the world’s more mature industries, the international energy sector remains incredibly dynamic, with journalists, governments, investors, and analysts paying special interest to developments within the industry to assess their potential impact on the global business and economic landscapes.
Energy stocks experienced negative returns in 2023, but have risen in early 2024 alongside the price of oil. Generally, energy stock prices tend to track changes in energy prices. For instance, when energy prices peaked in 2022 due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, many companies in the energy sector saw gains. Global production levels are also crucial to the sector’s performance. While U.S. oil production has been relatively high in recent months, many OPEC+ countries have capped production. Although demand for energy products continues to grow, there is uncertainty about whether supply will increase accordingly.
On another front, global investment in the energy transition has increased tremendously over the years, hitting the $1.8 trillion mark in 2023, flagging a 17% rise from the previous year, according to BloombergNEF. However, this amount is a fraction of the $1.77 trillion invested globally, with the business case for adopting renewable energy becoming more compelling for companies. Conversely, the oil and gas sector has seen a significant surge in merger and acquisition activity, with over $155 billion in deals in the fourth quarter of 2023. This total surpasses the combined value of deals from the previous five quarters. Facing challenging market and economic conditions, oil and gas companies—especially those in upstream, midstream, and oil field services—are expected to continue this consolidation trend into 2024.
Oil prices bottomed on June 5 due to an unexpected increase in U.S. crude stocks and a larger-than-anticipated rise in fuel inventories, heightening demand concerns amid potential supply growth later this year. At the time data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that the U.S. crude stockpile rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week ending May 31, contrary to analysts’ expectations of a 2.3 million barrel draw. However, this build was less than the American Petroleum Institute’s report, which indicated an increase of over 4 million barrels. On the other hand, gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2 million barrel rise. This contributed to demand concerns, as the week reflected fuel usage around the Memorial Day holiday, traditionally seen as the start of the U.S. summer driving season. Oil prices increased by about $5 since then, currently trading above $78 per barrel.
The energy industry is not only massive but also holds significant growth potential. According to the United Nations, achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement will require an annual investment of $2.4 trillion in energy systems over the next 11 years. Illustrating this growth, a report states that the global renewable energy market, valued at $899.24 billion in 2022, is expected to grow from $1,050.31 billion in 2023 to $3,637.99 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 16.80% during the forecast period.
The current year promises to be another rollercoaster ride for the energy industry, raising critical questions about the feasibility of achieving the net-zero targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. Commenting on this, Rystad Energy CEO Jarand Rystad remarked:
“Last year was a pivotal one for the energy world. Renewable energy capacity expanded rapidly, keeping up with global power demand growth for the first time. Solar PV needed to grow by 220 gigawatts (GW) in 2023 to track the 1.6 DG scenario for global warming. The latest figures now indicate that it could end up at above 400 GW. And there is now supply chain visibility for an annual delivery of 1,500 GW. Global coal demand most likely peaked in 2023, and clean energy technologies are now more affordable than fossil fuel alternatives in most parts of the world. Fossil fuels will, however, remain an important component of the energy mix for the next decades. Countries like Denmark, Finland and Portugal are close to achieving zero carbon power sectors, successfully dealing with the intermittency challenge of renewables. Still, there are also setbacks in renewable deployment, like the cost inflation seen in offshore wind, and governments will need to step up stimulation to get these sectors back on track. This year could see more inflection points in the energy transition, with impacts felt well into the latter half of the decade.”
With this context in mind, we are now talk about Wall Street analysts’ best undervalued energy stocks to buy.
Our Methodology
To compile our list of the best undervalued energy stocks to buy according to analysts, we used a stock screener to identify energy stocks with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios below 25. We then ranked these firms based on their average analyst share price target upside. For each of these energy stocks, we have also included hedge fund sentiment. Why do we track stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
8. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY)
Average Analyst Estimates as of May 28: $72.15
Average Analyst Upside as of May 28: 15.74%
P/E Ratio: 17.06
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY), headquartered in Houston and incorporated in Delaware, is a U.S.-based company specializing in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States and the Middle East. The company also operates petrochemical manufacturing facilities in the United States, Canada, and Chile.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) received a reaffirmed Neutral rating and a $70.00 price target from Roth/MKM on June 10. The firm’s stance is influenced by several factors, including Occidental’s relatively higher debt levels compared to its competitors, lower projected long-term production growth, and investments in direct air capture (DAC) carbon capture projects that may not yield short-term profits. This outlook follows the recent disclosure that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway acquired a substantial amount of OXY stock. Between June 5 and June 7, Berkshire Hathaway purchased 2.6 million shares of Occidental, amounting to $153.3 million at an average price of $59.75 per share.
The company recently completed a large-scale asset divestiture program and used the net proceeds from asset sales and free cash flow to repay near- and medium-term debt maturities. In addition, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) successfully extended a near-term $7 billion debt maturity beyond 2025. The company continues its debt reduction initiatives with plans to reduce the remaining $3.7 billion in debt maturing between 2024 and 2026. We like these debt reduction initiatives, but the company still has a substantial amount of debt and trade at a forward PE of 14. There are other energy companies with less debt and lower PE ratios than OXY.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, 61 hedge funds out of the 919 funds tracked by Insider Monkey had stakes in Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY). Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway emerged as the company’s largest shareholder as it owns a $16.1 billion stake in OXY.
7. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)
Average Analyst Estimates as of May 28: $187.20
Average Analyst Upside as of May 28: 16.34%
P/E Ratio: 14.82
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), headquartered in San Ramon, California, is a prominent American multinational energy company primarily focused on the oil and gas industry. Originally established as the Standard Oil Company of California, it is the second-largest direct descendant of Standard Oil. The company operates in over 180 countries worldwide.
The company has been making several significant market moves recently. Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and its partners in Namibia’s Petroleum Exploration License 82 (PEL82) have signed an agreement transferring the operatorship of the offshore asset to Chevron, which already operates on the Namibian side of the Orange Basin.
Additionally, Hess shareholders recently approved a $53 billion takeover by Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), advancing a controversial acquisition central to a high-profile clash between the leading U.S. oil companies.
Furthermore, at its 2024 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) reported a record-high production of 3.1 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day in 2023. The company also achieved its ninth consecutive quarter with adjusted earnings exceeding $5 billion and posted an adjusted return on capital employed (ROCE) above 12% for the first quarter of this year. CVX currently trades at a forward P/E of 12.
As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, 62 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held stakes in Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), a decline from the 71 hedge funds in the previous quarter.
