3. Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51
Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) is a healthcare firm based in Denmark. On December 5, investment advisory JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating on Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) stock and raised the price target to DKK 850 from DKK 800.
At the end of the third quarter of 2023, 51 hedge funds in the database of Insider Monkey held stakes worth $2.2 billion in Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO), compared to 43 in the previous quarter worth $778 million.
In its Q3 2023 investor letter, Polen Capital highlighted a few stocks and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) was one of them. Here is what the fund said:
“We added new positions in Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) in the third quarter. We have been monitoring Lilly and Novo Nordisk for some time, and new clinical results from a recent drug trial give us confidence in the large upside potential for GLP-1s. These results from a Novo Nordisk study showed impressive cardiovascular outcomes for its GLP-1, Wegovy. This study of over 17,000 overweight or obese people with established cardiovascular disease (but without diabetes) showed that Wegovy reduced the likelihood of major adverse cardiovascular events (heart attack, stroke, sudden cardiac death) by over 20% for up to five years. This large and well-controlled trial helps to demonstrate that the weight loss benefits of GLP-1s (likely similar for Mounjaro and Wegovy) lead to better health outcomes for patients and likely save the healthcare system significant amounts of money over the long term. In our view, this makes it very unlikely that payors and governments will deny patient access and reimbursement for these drugs for the long haul (hence the positive stock price moves for Lilly and Novo when the data was released mid-quarter).
We have started with a small 1% position in Lilly, but when paired with our new holding in Novo Nordisk at 2% (NVO is slightly larger as its valuation is lower), it represents a 3% combined position in the two companies we expect to maintain a duopoly in this large drug class over the next several years.
Novo Nordisk has a long history as the leader in diabetes pharmaceuticals. It is much more narrowly focused on diabetes than Lilly with its GLP-1 drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy (Wegovy is the same drug as Ozempic but uses a different name for obesity), driving most of the company’s revenue and earnings growth. The cardiovascular outcomes trial mentioned above is a big positive for Novo. It establishes the duopoly with Lilly in insulin management for Type 2 diabetics and weight loss for the huge number of overweight and obese people across the globe.
Novo has more legacy diabetes products that its newer drugs will cannibalize, but our research indicates that we can expect high-teens earnings per share growth from Novo over the next five years. In addition, both Novo and Lilly have next-generation diabetes and weight loss drugs in development that appear even more effective than the current offerings while also offering new treatment modalities, such as oral drugs versus today’s auto injectables.”
