3M Company (NYSE:MMM) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Turning to cash, our businesses continue to deliver strong and consistent free cash flow. Our expectation is that adjusted free cash flow conversion performance post-spin will remain in the range of 90% to 110%. Please turn to slide 15 for more details on our full year guidance. Included in our outlook is for normal sequential patterns through the year, coupled with the end-market trends just discussed. As a result, we anticipate that our second half of the year sales will be slightly stronger than the first half. Our expectations also include a 1% foreign currency headwind to sales given the strength of the U.S. dollar at current spot rates or a negative $0.20 to earnings per share. We also anticipate an approximately 75-basis-point benefit to sales from the commercial agreement with Solventum.

Please note that this benefit will be reflected within acquisition and divestitures from an external reporting perspective. We expect adjusted operating income and earnings per share to show relative strength in the second half of the year. This is primarily due to the impact from the timing of the Solventum spin on April 1st along with our pre-tax restructuring charges of $250 million to $300 million that are weighted 70% to the first half of the year. We will continue to benefit from productivity and restructuring actions, partially offset by increased investments in the business as we progress through the year. Looking at below the line items, we estimate full year other expense, net will be in the range of $75 million to $100 million, mostly weighted to the second half of the year.

And our 2024 adjusted tax rate is expected to be in the range of 19% to 20%, with the first half of the year coming in at the high end of the range. As Bruce mentioned earlier, and detailed further on Slide 26 in the appendix, the new operating category named Other is forecasted to have a net operating loss of approximately neutral to $25 million. This range includes first quarter net operating loss of approximately $65 million on a continuing operations basis. Beginning in April, Transition Service Agreement costs plus a markup will be reimbursed to 3M, and therefore, we will generate modest income in the three remaining quarters of the year. Finally, Corporate and Unallocated includes full year 2024 sales in the range of $225 million to $275 million for commercial agreements with Solventum beginning in April.

We expect full year Corporate and Unallocated net operating loss in the range of $125 million to $175 million. These ranges include first quarter revenue of approximately $25 million and net operating loss of approximately $75 million. As we have previously discussed, we estimate annualized dis-synergies of approximately $150 million to $175 million. These costs were previously associated with Solventum and will now be allocated to Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics and Consumer starting in April. Specific to Q2, we expect continued strong execution to drive operating performance. As disclosed in our Form 10-K, stock-based compensation grants were delayed to Q2. As a result, we expect to incur $125 million to $150 million in expense in Q2.

We will also increase investments to support end-market demand and drive growth and productivity. Please turn to slide 16 for more details by business group. Taking into account my earlier comments regarding current full year macroeconomic and major end market forecasts, we estimate organic sales growth in Safety and Industrial to be flat to up low-single digits. Adjusted organic sales growth for Transportation and Electronics is forecasted to be up low-single digits. This is better than our estimated range of flat to up low-single digits provided in January, recognizing our strong Q1 growth performance. And in Consumer, we estimate organic sales to be down low-single digits, which includes our ongoing product portfolio initiatives. These actions are estimated to create a year-on-year organic growth headwind for the Consumer business of approximately 2-percentage points.

I want to take a moment to thank our team for the work they have done in successfully executing across our three strategic priorities. Their disciplined work has created value and returned capital to shareholders with the successful spin out of our Health Care business. They have also helped reduce risk by reaching two large settlements while making progress on the exit of PFAS manufacturing. And most importantly, our teams have made tremendous progress on fundamentally improving how we work, which is driving better performance across the business. In closing, we delivered a strong start to the year. As we look ahead, we are focused on building on our momentum, supporting expectations for a return to organic topline growth, margin expansion, investments in high growth and attractive end markets, and continued strong cash generation.

This leaves us well-positioned for long-term success and consistent value creation for our customers and shareholders. Please turn to slide 17 and I will turn it back over to Mike. Mike?

Mike Roman: Thanks Monish. Paying a competitive dividend has been a priority for 3M for more than 100 years. This will continue to be true following the spin-off of Solventum. As a part of the spin, we distributed 80.1% of Solventum’s outstanding shares to our shareholders and post-spin have made the decision to reset 3M’s dividend. As a result, we anticipate a dividend of approximately 40% of adjusted free cash flow. This represents a dividend that is in line with our industrial peers and well above the S&P 500 median, with the potential to increase over time. We expect to seek Board approval to declare the second-quarter dividend in May, with payments anticipated in June. In addition, post-spin, we have stepped back into the market for share repurchases.

Before I conclude, let me emphasize some important points from the quarter. Q1 was a strong start to the year, driven by significant improvements in operational execution, as well as the achievement of several major milestones toward our strategic goals, including the successful spin-off of Solventum and the settlement of two major legal matters. I would like to thank our people for their dedication and continued focus on delivering value for our customers and shareholders. Through their efforts, we are well-positioned to deliver a strong 2024. Tomorrow, May 1st, I transition into the role of Executive Chairman. I look forward to working with Bill Brown as he assumes the role of CEO. That concludes our formal remarks and we will now take your questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] We go first this morning to Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

Julian Mitchell: Thanks very much. Good morning and congratulations, Mike, on the transition, and obviously, you’ll stay very involved in the Executive Chairman role. And…

Mike Roman: Yeah. Thank you, Julian.

Julian Mitchell: Maybe — absolutely. Maybe just to start off with, Monish, you packed a lot of clarification on the moving part into the prepared remarks, so thanks for that. Maybe just to try and understand a little bit better the quarterly sort of cadence here. So it sounds like second quarter EPS down slightly maybe versus the sort of 170 cont ops number for Q1, and that’s really because of the stock comp and the one timers that you talked about. So do we think about sort of second quarter revenue being similar to first quarter margins down a bit, because of the stock comp and one timers, and then as we step into the second half, you’ve got higher revenues half-on-half, and then sort of good operating leverage of the stepped up revenue. Maybe just any thoughts around that?

Monish Patolawala: Yeah. I would say, Julian, so you summarized it. I would go back and say, there’s so many moving pieces that I would really say first look at first half, second half, and then when you do that, we would also show you that on revenue we are starting to hit normal seasonality trends. So on revenue, the first half, second half is 49%, 51%, and then the margin split first half, second half is 47%, 53%, and the reason for that is some of the items that you’ve mentioned, part of the biggest item there is Solventum’s first quarter where we don’t get reimbursed for TSAs, and that’s driving the 47% to 53%. If you now go into the important factors just into Q2 to make sure that I cover all the points, restructuring charges are between $250 million to $300 million for the year, 70% is weighted to the first half.

Similarly, you mentioned it too, and I would — I said that in my prepared remarks, we will incur stock-based compensation headwind around $120 million to $150 million. FX, the stronger dollar, continues to remain in the second quarter, so we’ve got to factor all that in. And I would say that’s why we’ve given you first half, second half guidance. There are more details. I know Bruce and the team can walk you through it, but if you start with that, I think you’ll get directionally in the zone that we’re talking about.

Julian Mitchell: That’s very helpful. Thanks, Monish. And then maybe a second question, perhaps, more for Mike, but on capital allocation. So, clearly, you and the Board spent a lot of time thinking about balance sheet leverage of 3M to settle on that sort of 40% dividend payout ratio. You also mentioned, though, that on the buyback, some step up since the Solventum spin. So maybe help us understand kind of how you and the Board are thinking about 3M’s leverage requirements from here, how meaningful could a buyback be, and then tied to that, Monish, any clarification on interest expense guide for this year based on that balance sheet?

Mike Roman: Sure, Julian. Yeah. I would start with, we continue to be a strong cash generator and we’re well capitalized to invest in our business, which continues to be the first priority for capital allocation and also return capital shareholders, including the dividend that we’ve been talking about and share repurchases. And I — my comment, we’re back in the market, the pace will depend on how we view the macro, how we look at our performance, the intrinsic value of our stock. We haven’t declared really how we’re going to move forward on that. But that — so well positioned to, like I said, invest in and drive the capital allocation priorities that we talk about.

Monish Patolawala: Julian, I’ll answer your second question. When we talk about below the line items, we talk about two things. Mainly it’s pension and it’s interest expense/income. So I’ll combine the two. So a guide is net expense of $75 million to $100 million or $0.10 per share to $0.15 per share. Q2, as I mentioned, will continue to benefit from the interest income that we receive from the — dividend that we receive from Solventum of $7.7 billion. And so therefore, the $75 million to the $100 million guide for the year will mostly be weighted to the second half of the year.

Julian Mitchell: Great. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. We go next now to Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

Nigel Coe: Oh! Thanks. Good morning.

Mike Roman: Good morning, Nigel.

Monish Patolawala: Good morning.

Nigel Coe: Good morning. Good morning. And Mike, hopefully the Exec Chairman role is a bit less stressful than Chairman and CEO role. So congratulations on that. So just a few more, maybe a few more details on the 2Q, Monish. The restructuring, I understand 3% in the first half, 3% in the second half. How does that phase between 1Q and 2Q? I’m just trying to understand whether that’s fairly level loaded or whether there’s a bit more coming through in the second quarter. And then on the restructuring, I see the total charges, but in terms of the gross payback, what kind of payback are we assuming on that restructuring? And are we still — on a 3M RemainCo basis still on track for $700 million, $900 million of savings by 2025?

Monish Patolawala: Yeah. So I’ll start with the first one, Nigel. As I said, it’s 70% weighted in the first half of the $250 million to $300 million range. In the first quarter, at a holdco basis, we did $122 million of restructuring that I’ve said in my announcement. And then you’ll see Health Care was approximately $20 million of that. So you’ve got $100 million that is on a RemainCo basis and so the balance is so you can get the math. When I come to your next piece on payback, I just wanted to start again. I’ve said this before. I’ll say it again. You have to look at restructuring in total. So when we started this program, we said there are multiple things we wanted to achieve. Number one was we wanted to change the way we work.

And the way we achieved that was streamlining our supply chain, getting a shorter path to customers. And third was reduce stranded costs, have a lighter center, as well as create oxygen to invest in the business. And when we put that program together, that was including holdco. As we have now spun out Health Care, you can see all those items starting to come in, which is margin expansions coming in and that is happening because of the improvement we have in our supply chain and the way we work. It’s happening because we are closer to customers. It’s happening because we have reduced stranded costs. When we started our journey and we announced the spin of Health Care, we had said industry benchmark was somewhere between 1% to 1.5% of sales, which is like $400 million to $450 million and now our dis-synergies from the spin out of Health Care and the $150 million to $175 million and we’re going to keep working that.