2U, Inc. (NASDAQ:TWOU) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Paul Lalljie: I mean paid marketing is down. We spent $26 point-something million less than paid marketing. And as you can see from the revenue trajectory, we are able to maintain that. And we are able to augment paid marketing with organic growth, so from a lead perspective. So, the overall high-level metrics are there. And we are trying to up-level that conversation, if you will, and not get too much into each of the inputs that get you to the overall level.

Ryan Griffin: Got it. Thank you. And just for a follow-up on the capital allocation front. Are there any other debt refinance catalysts you are looking at or maybe to reduce the term loan any further?

Paul Lalljie: I mean Ryan, look at it this way, we delivered what, $125 million of EBITDA in 2022. We are on a trajectory to deliver €“ pick a number, $157.5 million plus in 2023. We have the fundamentals as an organization to have optionality when it comes to capital markets. And we will continue to explore that. At the end of the day, we are very focused on optimizing our balance sheet, and we will make sure we continue to look for opportunities as we go through time. I don’t know if that is in the near-term or when that is, but we are building the fundamentals to make sure that we can tap into the capital markets as appropriate and optimize our balance sheet.

Ryan Griffin: Got it. Thanks so much.

Operator: And we will take our next question from Josh Baer with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Josh Baer: Great. Thank you for the question. If we look at EBITDA margins in the back half of this year, and I know there is some Q4 seasonality around lower marketing spend, but I think you were over 19%. So, I am wondering why EBITDA margins for 2023 goes down to 16% from these higher levels assuming that there is the continuation of that reduced paid marketing spend in the first half of 2023, which wasn’t there in 2022. So, just wondering if you could give any context there maybe where €“ if you are investing into next year and where?

Paul Lalljie: So, Josh, let me put that into perspective a little bit. The third quarter of 2022 was a 14% EBITDA margin and in Q4 25%. And revenue in that back half of the year of 2022, let’s say, $468 million with EBITDA of about $91 million. That’s the 19% that you are referring to. And if you take the midpoint of our guidance of $157.5 million as a percentage of the midpoint on the revenue side, that’s the 16%. Keep in mind, half of the back half number that you are talking about there, the Q4 numbers has seasonality associated with it. And when you are looking at the full number of 16% margin in 2023, that number encompasses a full cycle, meaning Q1, which is our tallest pen and then Q4, which is going to be lower seasonal marketing spend.

But having said all of that, I mean at the end of the day, this is January, this is the beginning of the year. And there is an element of prudence when it comes to our guidance that we delivered here today. Remember, we are in a very complex macroeconomic environment. And we have to be prudent as we go through 2023. But you hit the nail on the head. And funny enough, we were prepared for that question by looking at the back half of the year margin, what does it mean from a run rate perspective and you can tell from the response here. That’s a very good observation on your part.

Josh Baer: Thanks. And I definitely appreciate that. You like to outperform EBITDA and embed some prudence in there. I guess my other question is just we talked about through some of the positives around top of funnel and efficiency from edX. Wondering if you could comment on any impacts you are seeing from the pullback in paid marketing spend to top of funnel or enrollment?