In this article, we look at the 25 Countries Where Muslim Population Will Increase The Most By 2030.
Trends in Muslim Population Growth
According to a report by the Pew Research Center, the global Muslim population is expected to grow rapidly from about 1.90 billion in 2020 to nearly 2.20 billion by 2030, marking almost a 15% increase.
The Middle East-North Africa is the most predominantly Muslim region in the world, with 93.1% of its 409.31 million people being Muslim as of 2020. By 2030, the total population in this region is expected to grow to 474.88 million, with 93.3% being Muslim.
The Asia Pacific region is home to the majority of the world’s Muslim population, with 1.13 billion Muslims in 2020. By 2030, the total number of Muslims is projected to increase to 1.27 billion, representing an almost 12% rise. While in Europe, Muslims are expected to increase from about 6.8% in 2020 to about 8% in 2030 as a share of the population.
North America is expected to see the most rapid Muslim population growth. The Muslim population in North America is projected to grow by 26.66% to 6.59 million by 2030, compared to 2020.
In 2020, Indonesia had the largest Muslim population, totaling approximately 229.62 million. However, by 2030, it is projected that Indonesia will fall to second place, with its Muslim population increasing to 245.02 million. India is forecasted to become the largest Muslim population by 2030, reaching 248.96 million. Following India and Indonesia, Pakistan is expected to have a Muslim population of 230.39 million, and Bangladesh is projected to have 168.05 million Muslims by 2030. This significant growth is largely driven by the young age and high fertility rate of Muslims compared to other religious groups. In every region except the Middle East and North Africa, Muslim fertility is higher than the regional average.
Around 2075, Islam will be the world’s dominant religion as 31% of the world’s babies are born to Muslims, despite Muslims comprising only 24% of the global population. In contrast, the Christian population will also continue to grow, but more modestly. Regional differences are significant. For example, the Christian population in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow substantially. However, in Europe, Christian deaths already exceed births and this trend is likely to continue. The birth rate among religiously unaffiliated people is low, and they are projected to decline as a share of the global population. By 2060, the global population is expected to reach 9.6 billion, with Muslims comprising 31% and Christians 32%.
Wealthiest Muslim Nations and Their Economic Drivers
Most Muslim countries are located in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with some also in Central Asia and the Asia-Pacific. The wealthiest Muslim nations are predominantly located in the Middle East, where economies are largely driven by oil and natural resources. Several large energy-sector corporations such as BP (NYSE:BP) also known as British Petroleum have been operating there for several decades.
BP (NYSE:BP) has been working in the Middle East for more than 100 years and has been an investor in Abu Dhabi since 1939. BP (NYSE:BP) ) played a leading role in the discovery of oil in the Emirate in 1958. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) which is an energy and petrochemicals group owned by the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, and BP (NYSE:BP) have maintained a strategic partnership for over 50 years in energy, renewables, and carbon capture and storage technology.
On February 14, ADNOC and BP (NYSE:BP) announced the formation of a new joint venture (JV) in Egypt. This JV, with BP (NYSE:BP) holding a 51% stake and ADNOC 49%, aims to develop a highly competitive gas portfolio by leveraging both companies’ technical capabilities and proven track records. As part of the agreement, BP (NYSE:BP) will contribute to three development concessions of North El Tabya, Bellatrix-Seti East, and North El Fayrouz offshore blocks along with other exploration agreements in Egypt. The JV’s formation is expected to be completed during the second half of 2024. ADNOC will provide a cash contribution, which can be utilized for future growth opportunities.
Commenting on the event Musabbeh Al Kaabi, ADNOC’s Executive Director for Low Carbon Solutions and International Growth, said:
“Today’s announcement with BP represents a significant step forward as ADNOC builds its international natural gas portfolio. This progressive joint venture partnership will enhance Egyptian energy security and the economic potential of the region’s most populous Arab country. Building on our long-standing strategic partnership with bp, ADNOC looks forward to continuing to explore other opportunities as we collectively seek to decarbonize our operations and lead a just and equitable energy transition.”
Executive Vice President of Regions, Corporates & Solutions at BP (NYSE:BP), William Lin, added:
“This dynamic JV offers a platform for international growth that advances our longstanding and strategic partnership with ADNOC that spans over five decades. Together, we will build on the 60 years of safe and efficient operations of bp and its partners in Egypt and continue to produce and deliver secure, lower-carbon energy in the form of natural gas to the country.”
The projected growth of the global Muslim population is expected across various regions, particularly in Asia Pacific and North America. As Islam becomes the world’s dominant religion by 2075 their influence on global affairs, economics, and culture will expand, with that in context let’s take a look at 25 countries where the Muslim population will increase the most by 2030.
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Our Methodology
To compile our list of 25 countries where the Muslim population will increase the most by 2030, we consulted the Religious Composition by Country report by the PEW Research Center. Here is the list of 25 countries where the Muslim population will increase the most by 2030, ranked in ascending order of the increase in population between 2020 and 2030.
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25 Countries Where Muslim Population Will Increase The Most By 2030
25. Uzbekistan
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 2.72 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 32.9 million
Percentage Increase: 9.01%
Uzbekistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia and is predominantly Islamic country. As of 2020, Uzbekistan had a population of 30.18 million Muslims. By 2030, the Muslim population in Uzbekistan is expected to increase by 2.72 million to 32.9 million, which constitutes a 9.01% increase.
24. China
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 2.81 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 30.82 million
Percentage Increase: 10.03%
Islam is a minority religion in China and most of the Muslims reside in the northwestern Xinjiang region, which contains a significant Uyghur population. In 2020, China had a Muslim population of 28.01 million. By 2030, the Muslim population in China is expected to grow to 30.82 million with an increase of 2.81 million Muslims and marking a 10.03% rise.
23. Algeria
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.23 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 42.66 million
Percentage Increase: 8.19%
Algeria is a predominantly Muslim country and has a population of 39.43 million Muslims as of 2020. The population of Muslims in Algeria is projected to grow to 42.66 million by 2030 with an increase of 3.23 million, or 8.19%. Islam is a significant part of Algeria’s cultural and religious identity.
22. Syria
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.61 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 26.2 million
Percentage Increase: 15.98%
Islam remains the dominant religion in Syria. Syria has a Muslim population of 22.59 million in 2020, which is expected to rise to 26.2 million by 2030. Muslim population in Syria is expected to increase by 15.98% which represents an addition of 3.61 million more Muslims.
21. Iran
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.66 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 84.54 million
Percentage Increase: 4.53%
Iran is an Islamic republic with a majority Shia Muslim population. In 2020, Iran had a Muslim population of 80.88 million. By 2030, Iran’s Muslim population is projected to increase to 84.54 million, adding 3.66 million Muslims which represents a 4.53% increase.
20. Somalia
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.70 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 15.81 million
Percentage Increase: 30.55%
Somalia is a predominantly Muslim country following Sunni Islam. Somalia had a Muslim population of 12.11 million in 2020. The Muslim population in Somalia is forecasted to grow to 15.81 million by 2030. This is an increase of 3.70 million Muslims or 30.55%.
19. Senegal
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.85 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 19.33 million
Percentage Increase: 24.87%
Senegal, officially the Republic of Senegal lies in the westernmost end of West Africa, In 2020, Senegal had a Muslim population of 15.48 million. The population is expected to grow by 24.87% to 19.33 million by 2030. Senegal will have 3.85 million more Muslims by 2030.
18. Malaysia
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.98 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 26.05 million
Percentage Increase: 18.03%
Islam is the majority religion of Malaysia followed by Buddhism and Christianity. Muslims represent two-thirds of the country’s population and play a central role in its society. Malaysia’s Muslim population was 22.07 million in 2020. By 2030, the Muslim population in Malaysia is expected to rise to 26.05 million representing an increase of 3.98 million Muslims, or 18.03%.
17. Saudi Arabia
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 4.76 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 35.45 million
Percentage Increase: 15.51%
Saudi Arabia is considered the “Home of Islam”, two of Islam’s holiest cities Mecca, where the Prophet Muhammad was born, and Medina, where he is buried are located in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia had a Muslim population of 30.69 million in 2020. The population of Muslims in Saudi Arabia is projected to grow by 15.51% to 35.45 million by 2030.
16. Burkina Faso
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 5.00 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 19.24 million
Percentage Increase: 35.11%
Burkina Faso is a landlocked country in West Africa and Islam is the predominant religion in the country. In 2020, Burkina Faso had a Muslim population of 14.24 million. By 2030, the number of Muslims in Burkina Faso is expected to increase by 5 million to 19.24 million, representing a 35.11% increase.
15. Turkey
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 5.66 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 84.75 million
Percentage Increase: 7.16%
Turkey is predominantly Muslim, with a majority Sunni population. Turkey had a Muslim population of 79.09 million in 2020. The population of Muslims in Turkey is projected to grow by 7.16% to 84.75 million by 2030 representing an increase of 5.66 million Muslims.
14. Mali
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 5.99 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 25.6 million
Percentage Increase: 30.55%
Mali is a predominantly Muslim country with Islam being a central aspect of its culture. In 2020, Mali had a Muslim population of 19.61 million. By 2030 the Muslim population in Mali is expected to rise to 25.6 million with an increase of 5.99 million Muslims. In terms of percentage, the Muslim population in Mali is forecasted to increase by 30.55%.
13. Tanzania
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 6.32 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 27.27 million
Percentage Increase: 30.17%
Tanzania is a predominantly Christian country, with Christians making up 63.1% of the population as of 2020. Tanzania had a Muslim population of 20.95 million in 2020. By 2030, this number is projected to grow to 27.27 million. The population of Muslims in Tanzania is expected to increase by 6.32 million Muslims, representing an overall 30.17% increase.
12. Ethiopia
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 7.92 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 44.21 million
Percentage Increase: 21.82%
Ethiopia is a predominantly Christian country, with Christians making up 61.9% of the population as of 2020. Ethiopia has a substantial Muslim minority, primarily in the eastern and southeastern regions. In 2020, Ethiopia had a Muslim population of 36.29 million. The Population of Muslims in Ethiopia is expected to grow to 44.21 million by 2030, representing an increase of 7.92 million Muslims, or 21.82%.
11. Niger
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 8.49 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 30.15 million
Percentage Increase: 39.20%
Islam is the dominant religion in Niger and had a Muslim population of 21.66 million in 2020. As of 2020, 98.3% of the population in Niger is Muslim. The Muslim population Niger is expected to rise significantly by 39.20% to 30.15 million by 2030. This represents an increase of 8.49 million Muslims.
10. Sudan
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 8.73 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 47.16 million
Percentage Increase: 22.72%
In 2020, Sudan had a Muslim population of 38.43 million. By 2030, the total number of Muslims in Sudan is projected to increase by 22.72% to 47.16 million, which represents an addition of 8.73 million Muslims. Sunni Islam is the predominant religion in Sudan.
9. Yemen
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 9.07 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 41.13 million
Percentage Increase: 28.29%
Yemen is predominantly Shia Muslim, with a majority Sunni population. Yemen had a Muslim population of 32.06 million in 2020. By 2030, the total number of Muslims in Sudan is expected to grow to 41.13 million with an increase of 9.07 million Muslims, or 28.29%.
8. Afghanistan
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 10.42 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 51.03 million
Percentage Increase: 25.66%
Afghanistan is overwhelmingly Muslim, with Islam being the central religion for 99.7% of the population as of 2020. Roughly 85% of the Muslims in Afghanistan practice Sunni Islam. Afghanistan had a Muslim population of 40.61 million in 2020 and is expected to see this rise to 51.03 million by 2030. This is an increase of 10.42 million Muslims or 25.66%.
7. Egypt
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 11.67 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 102.09 million
Percentage Increase: 12.91%
Egypt is a predominantly Muslim country and Islam is deeply integrated into its culture and society. Since 1980, Islam has served as Egypt’s state religion. In 2020, Egypt had a Muslim population of 90.42 million. The number of Muslims in Egypt is projected to grow by 12.91% to 102.09 million by 2030 which represents an increase of 11.67 million Muslims.
6. Iraq
Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 11.79 million
Muslim Population in 2030: 53.22 million
Percentage Increase: 28.46%
Iraq is a predominantly Muslim country and 99.1% of the population in the country identify as Muslims. Approximately 55% of the Muslims in Iraq are Shia Muslims, whereas 40% are Sunni Muslims. Iraq is also home to many sacred Muslim sites, including mosques and shrines. Iraq had a Muslim population of 41.43 million in 2020. By 2030, the population of Muslims in Iraq is expected to increase to 53.22 million, adding 11.79 million Muslims, or 28.46%.