25 Countries where Muslim Population will Increase the Most by 2030

Published on February 7, 2024 at 11:01 pm by Ashar Jawad in Lists, News

In this article, we look at 25 countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030. You can skip our detailed analysis on the economic potential of the Islamic world and head over directly to the 10 Countries where Muslim Population will Increase the Most by 2030.

Islam is the second largest and the fastest growing religion in the world, with 1.8 billion Muslims, who account for 24% of the global population. Driven by fertility rates and the proportion of youth among the major religions, the world’s religious profile is rapidly evolving. According to the PEW Research Center, by 2030, the world’s Muslim population is likely to be proportionate to 26.5% of the world’s population, while by 2050, it will account for nearly 30% of the share and come close to equaling the total number of Christians in the world – which is currently an estimated 2.4 billion people.

The population of Muslims in 2030 will be 38% higher than in 2010, while the Christian population is projected to grow 19% during this period. The population of Hindus will be expanding by 23%, while the number of Jews in the world will have risen by 10% in these two decades. Moreover, if the current trends were to continue, by 2050, 10% of Europe’s population will be Muslim, and Islam would become the second largest religion in the United States, surpassing Judaism.

Economic Potential of the Muslim World

The Muslim world contributes 8.51% of the global economy. While this is disproportionate to the size of the group’s overall population, the Islamic world is full of economic potential. 53% of the globe’s proven oil and gas reserves are found in the Middle East. These two natural resources alone contribute to over half of all exports from the region.

Several large energy-sector corporations operate in the resource-rich region. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has pumped over $30 billion in gas projects in Qatar since the 1990s, which has resulted in the development of 12-14 facilities in the country. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has been present in Saudi Arabia for the last 90 years as well, and has played a pivotal role in what is today Saudi Aramco – the second largest company in the world in terms of revenue, which generated $161 billion in profits in 2022, which was thrice of what Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) earned that year.

British Petroleum, or BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) spearheaded oil discovery in the UAE in 1958. In March 2023, the company alongside Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) jointly offered $2 billion to acquire fifty-percent of the stake in NewMed Energy, an Israeli natural gas producer. Later that year in July, BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) invested $10 million in a California-based biofuel firm that plans to set up its first plant in Dubai. Israel has also awarded BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) license to explore gas off the Mediterranean coast.

Islam is a major religion in south and southeast Asia as well, especially in countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia, where it is the predominant religion. Tech companies, such as Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) for example, have been tapping into investment opportunities in the region due to the abundance of talented, skilled human resources, coupled with cheap labor.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in 2021 announced opening a data center in Indonesia, which it expects would contribute an additional $6 billion to the company’s overall revenue. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) also signed a $1 billion partnership program that year with the government in Malaysia to establish several data centers across the country between 2021 and 2026.

Several other tech and IT related companies operate in the region as well. Samsung, for instance, manufactures its top-tier Galaxy series smartphones in both Bangladesh and Pakistan.

25 Countries where Muslim Population will Increase the Most by 2030

Methodology

Countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030 are listed in ascending order of the estimated increase in population of Muslims in these countries between 2020 and 2030. Figures have been sourced from projections made by the PEW Research Center.

If interested, you can also take a look at the 25 Countries where Muslim Population will Increase the Most by 2050.

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Let’s now head over to the list of countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030.

25. Uzbekistan

Muslim Population in 2030: 32.9 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 2.72 million

Percentage Increase: 9.01%

Over 97% of the population in Uzbekistan comprises Muslims. That share is likely to hold by 2030 with a 9% increase in the group’s population.

24. China

Muslim Population in 2030: 30.82 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 2.81 million

Percentage Increase: 10.03%

Muslims form a religious minority in China, accounting for barely 1-1.5% of the country’s overall population. Despite that, their population is still a sizable number – around 28 million in 2020, and forecasted to get close to 31 million by 2030.

23. Algeria

Muslim Population in 2030: 42.66 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.23 million

Percentage Increase: 8.19%

Nearly 98% of Algeria’s population is Muslim. The African nation will be among countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030, according to forecasts by the PEW Research Center.

22. Syria

Muslim Population in 2030: 26.2 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.61 million

Percentage Increase: 15.98%

93% of Syria’s population comprises Muslims, of which three-fourth are adherents of the Sunni sect of Islam. Muslim population is forecasted to grow about 16% between 2020 and 2030, and by 38% between 2020 and 2050.

21. Iran

Muslim Population in 2030: 84.54 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.66 million

Percentage Increase: 4.53%

Iran is among countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030. About 99.4% of the population in Iran is Muslim – a majority of them belonging to the Shia sect.

20. Somalia

Muslim Population in 2030: 15.81 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.7 million

Percentage Increase: 30.55%

Somalia’s birth rate of 6.42 births per woman is one of the highest in the world. It is a predominantly Muslim-majority country, where the population of the group is forecasted to grow by over 30% between 2020 and 2030, and a whopping 116% by 2050.

19. Senegal

Muslim Population in 2030: 19.33 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.85 million

Percentage Increase: 24.87%

Over 96% of the population in Senegal identified as Muslim in 2020 according to PEW. That share is likely to grow further to 98.87% by 2030 due to a significant increase in the group’s population during the time period.

18. Malaysia

Muslim Population in 2030: 26.05 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 3.98 million

Percentage Increase: 18.03%

Malaysia is known for its religious diversity, harmony, and coexistence. Muslims account for about two-thirds of the population currently. That proportion is likely to rise to 68.4% by 2030, with Hindu and Buddhists groups projected to experience a dip in their share of the population.

17. Saudi Arabia

Muslim Population in 2030: 35.45 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 4.76 million

Percentage Increase: 15.51%

Saudi Arabia is home to Islam’s holiest sites. It is the largest producer of oil in the Middle East, which has attracted labor from around the globe, in particular the Muslim world. The population of Muslims is forecasted to increase by 15.51% between 2020 and 2030.

16. Burkina Faso

Muslim Population in 2030: 19.24 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 5 million

Percentage Increase: 35.11%

Burkina Faso is a diverse country. 63% of the population in this African country is Muslim, while Christians and adherents of folks religions form sizable minorities – 21.7% and 15% respectively. The country’s Muslim population is forecasted to grow exponentially from 14.2 million in 2020 to 19.24 million in 2030, and 32.2 million by 2050.

15. Turkiye

Muslim Population in 2030: 84.75 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 5.66 million

Percentage Increase: 7.16%

Turkiye is known for its rich Islamic history and Ottoman architecture. 98% of the population in the country is Muslim. This proportion is likely to hold in 2030, helped by a 7.16% increase in the group’s population compared to 2020.

14. Mali

Muslim Population in 2030: 25.6 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 5.99 million

Percentage Increase: 30.55%

Muslims make up 95% of the population in this West African country, while Christians account for 2.4% of the share. Mali’s Muslim population is projected to increase by nearly one-thirds between 2020 and 2030, and grow by over 100% to touch 40 million by 2050.

13. Tanzania

Muslim Population in 2030: 27.27 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 6.32 million

Percentage Increase: 30.17%

Tanzania is next on the list of countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030. The number of Muslims in the country will grow 30.17% by 2030 and more than double their current population of 20.95 million by 2050.

12. Ethiopia

Muslim Population in 2030: 44.21 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 7.92 million

Percentage Increase: 21.82%

Ethiopia is a Christian-majority country in Africa (62%), where Muslims form a sizable minority and account for 36% of the population. Muslim population is rapidly growing, however. By 2030, they will make up 37.3% of the population, and are forecasted to touch the 40% by 2050.

11. Niger

Muslim Population in 2030: 30.15 million

Estimated Increase in Population between 2020 and 2030: 8.49 million

Percentage Increase: 39.20%

Niger is among countries where Muslim population will increase the most by 2030, with an expected increase of 39.20% in the group’s population between 2020 and 2030.

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