Wall Street Analysts are usually positively biased. You have to be very careful when using their estimates and forecasts. Sell side analysts have a lot of conflicts of interest and it’s always safer to discount their projections by at least 10%. Insider Monkey, your source for free insider trading data, pays more attention to Wall Street analysts when they’re pessimistic. They don’t have much to gain business-wise when they issue a negative rating or forecast about a stock. That’s why we think their negative estimates are more credible.
We gathered the 20 stocks analysts expect to fall the most based on the stocks’ average price target. We required at least 5 analysts covering the stock. We’ll also pay special attention to stocks that had at least 2 insiders selling during a 3 month period and with no insider purchases. The data source for analysts’ price targets is Bloomberg. Insider trading data are from Insider Monkey. Here are the 20 stocks Wall Street analysts expect to fall the most:
1. Sears Holdings (SHLD): Average target price for Sears is $58. The stock currently trades above $72. There weren’t any recent insider purchases or sales in Sears Holding.
2. Masco Corp (MAS): Average price target is $11.42 and the most recent stock price is $13.36. There weren’t any insider purchases or sales in Masco.
3. Netflix (NFLX): Analysts’ average price target for Netflix is $157.83, yet the stock is trading at $191. There aren’t any insider purchases but several insiders are selling like crazy. Netflix is also one of the stocks Whitney Tilson is extremely bearish about. It was also one of Tilson’s biggest losers last year, increasing around 250%.
4. Nvidia Corp (NVDA): The stock trades above $22.50 but analysts’ average price target is only $20.20. There aren’t any insiders purchasing but there were two insiders selling during the past 3 months.
5. Xilinx Inc (XLNX): Average price target for XLNX is $28.01 and the stock trades above $31. There weren’t any insider trading in Xilinx.
6. Autonation (AN): Average price target is $25.14, but the stock trades at $28.77. There have been several insiders buying and selling Autonation’s stock.
7. F5 Networks (FFIV): The stock trades at $139.37 but average price target is only $128.56. There were no insider purchases but there were several insider sales in F5 Networks.
8. Novellus Sys (NVLS): Current stock price is $35.68 and the average price target is $33.30. There were no insider purchases but several insiders were selling Novellus shares during the past three months.
9. Whole Foods (WFMI): Analysts’ average price target is $48.35 and the stock price is currently $52.64. There were also several insiders selling WFMI.
10. JDS Uniphase (JDSU): The stock trades at $16.60, slightly above analysts’ $16.11 price target. There were several insider sales in JDS Uniphase during the past couple of weeks.
11. Sealed Air Corp (SEE): Average price target is $24.64 vs. the current stock price of $25.81. There were two insiders selling and an insider buying Sealed Air stock. As a result, the stock doesn’t satisfy our criteria to short.
12. Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK): There aren’t any insider transactions at Hudson City Bancorp. The stock currently trades at $12.19 (currently today’s decline is more than 7%) vs. the $12.12 average price target.
13. Allegheny Energy (AYE): There is one insider selling Allegheny Energy. Analysts’ average price target is $23.50 but the stock price is above $25.50.
14. Altera Corp (ALTR): Average price target is $36.22 vs. the current stock price of $39.07. There are several insiders selling and no insiders purchasing Altera shares.
15. Weyerhaeuser (WY): Average price target is $19.96 vs. the current stock price of $21.51. There was one insider selling Weyerhaeuser.
16. Diamond Offshore (DO): There aren’t any insider transactions in Diamond Offshore. The stock trades at $74.32 vs. the average target price of $68.56.
17. Prologis (PLD): Average price target is $13.78 vs. the current stock price of $14.36. There weren’t any insider transactions in Prologis.
18. Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR): Average price target is $35.96 vs. the current stock price of $36.95. Several insiders at Juniper were selling during the past 3 months and there weren’t any insider purchases.
19. Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB): Average price target is $62.81 vs. the current stock price of $66.22. There were several insider sales at Biogen but no insider purchases.
20. Paychex Inc (PAYX): Average price target is $30.42 vs. the current stock price of $32.35. There weren’t any insider purchases at Paychex.
