In this article, we will be taking a look at the 20 most dangerous countries in Asia. To skip our detailed analysis, you can go directly to see the 5 most dangerous countries in Asia.
Considering the fact that Asia is the biggest continent on the planet, both in terms of size and population, it is hard to generalize but we will talk about specific issues facing the most dangerous countries in Asia, and the impact of such activities on the countries’ economies as well as the impact on business and investment opportunities.
Several of the countries most impact by terrorism are located in Asia, including Pakistan and Afghanistan, both of them impacted by activities the Taliban and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan respectively. Meanwhile, the rise of another major terrorist group in the Islamic State , has further created instability in the various Asian, and even African countries, and despite being largely neutralized in recent years, IS and its affiliates are still the deadliest terrorists in the world even in 2022, having launched attacks in over 20 countries. Go elsewhere in Asia and you will note many countries engaging in either direct or indirect conflict, with other countries caught in between, as in the case of Syria and Yemen, where proxy wars are being fought, costing tens of billions of dollars in damages in the past decade alone.
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All this instability in the most dangerous countries in Asia has severe business and economic repercussions that have been the subject of many studies. One such study conducted by the Organization of Economically Developed Countries in 2002, after 9/11, discovered that increased military spending to fight terrorism will likely result in spending being diverted from other important areas, including further investment in business development. At the same time, due to a lack of security, governments, businesses and individuals may all hire private security, which is a global industry expected to be worth $113 billion in 2023. As industries where private security is necessary, such as private banking and ATMs continue to grow worldwide, so does private security, especially in the most dangerous countries in Asia, and hence, may provide a good investment opportunity with high returns if healthy growth continues in this sector. Meanwhile, a study on the economic consequences of terrorism in South Asia discussed how terrorist activities in the region have negatively impacted the human development index which is why you are unlikely to find any South Asian country among the nations with the highest quality of life in the world. However, it is also important to remember that while most African countries have some sort of score on the Global Terrorism Index, but even among the 20 most dangerous Asian countries, 4 are not at risk of terrorism in any form, which shows that while the Asian countries where terrorism is an issue face a higher magnitude of terrorist activities, it is not as widely spread in the continent.
Of course, while terrorism is a major issue, so is crime, both violent and non-violent. Even if the threat of terrorism isn’t high in a country but the likelihood of violent crime is significantly high, that has a major impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) which itself is a signal on whether it’s worth investing in a country or not. A study assessing the impact of crime on foreign direct investment in Indonesia, mentioned this relationship in its conclusion stating the following:
“per Capita, Population and Road significantly positively influence the FDI Inflow variable and Crime and Wage exert a significantly negative effect on FDI Inflow. It is found that for every increase in total crime incidence per 100,000 people by ten percent, FDI inflow is expected to decrease by approximately 0.95 percent. A high crime incidence in a region, could lead to that region being undesirable for investment due to its negative image. In general, the crime rate influences the investment decisions in terms of location. This study suggests that besides boosting economic growth, stimulating infrastructure development, and lowering the provincial minimum wages, government needs to pay attention to crime incidence in each province. Government should allocate adequate resources to minimize the crime rate. When policies can successfully lower the incidence of crime, it is expected that the investors will respond positively and choose to invest in the province. Therefore, the effectiveness of policies related to crime, play an important role in foreign investment.”
This also explains why, nearly 80% of total foreign direct investment is concentrated in just 5 economies in Asia, where GDP growth is really high and have demonstrated stability, with these five countries being China, Singapore, Hong Kong, India and the UAE in that exact order, while half of total global investments have been made in Asia. Meanwhile, other countries are also seeing encouraging signs in terms of foreign direct investment, including Malaysia where FDI grew by 39% to $17 billion. On the other end, Saudi Arabia is one of worst impacted countries in Asia, as FDI fell by 59% in the first drop in the country in the last five years. To combat this, the country launched the National Investment Strategy launched in October 2022 and expects the FDI to reach $100 billion by 2030.
Similarly, if a nation is counted among the most dangerous countries in Asia, it will unsurprisingly have a negative impact on tourism. If foreigners don’t feel safe in a country they’re aiming to visit, whether it’s due to terrorist activities, scams or violent crimes, they can easily change their destination, depriving the country of tourism revenue which can be a major contributor to a nation’s economy. This is also why there is little hospitality presence, especially of the largest hotel chains in the world, in the most dangerous Asian countries as there is simply not enough demand and opportunities of growth and profitability. A study assessing the impact of crime on tourism concluded “Crime can have a very negative impact on tourism, and following all of the above mentioned, it can be concluded that security in tourism cannot be “taken for granted” and that it is necessary to make significant efforts (both financial and organisational) to ensure a safe environment for tourists (Ghaderi et al. 2017). In its complex relationship with crime, the tourism industry is in a specific and unfavourable position, since tourism is trapped by the danger of harmful publicity that is caused by crime and its effects on the number of tourist visits, and on the other hand, by the fact that the causes of crime are not solely confined to tourism.” This is why you will struggle to find most of the most dangerous countries in Asia among the most visited countries in the world. On the other hand, as demand for travel in Asia-Pacific increased, even Thailand, which is one our list, still manages to see sustainably high demand for tourism and major tourism companies including Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) and Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR) have opened hundreds of hotels in the region with Japan, China, Indonesia and Thailand making up the bulk of demand.
Methodology
To determine the most dangerous countries in Asia, we first considered their rankings on both the Global Terrorism Index and inverse ranking on the Global Peace Index. We then also checked their rankings based on their homicide rate from 2010 to 2021, with said data being obtained from the World Bank. We then assigned 40% weightage to the first two criteria and 20% weightage to the latter, to come up with our final rankings.
20. Indonesia
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 24
World Peace Index Ranking: 78
Homicide rate ranking: 209
The most populous Muslim country in the world, Indonesia has seen more violence in its West Papua region and is among the 25 nations most impacted by terrorism.
19. Kazakhstan
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 93
World Peace Index Ranking: 66
Homicide rate ranking: 89
Kazakhstan’s homicide rate, while continuing to improve, is the reason why it is considered somewhat dangerous.
18. North Korea
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 93
World Peace Index Ranking: 25
Homicide rate ranking: 121
While North Korea has no terrorism issues, it is one of the most secluded countries in the world, and spends the most per capita on military of any country in the world. It has also been the least peaceful nation in Asia-Pacific since the inception of the Global Peace Index and is easily among the most dangerous countries in Asia, especially for tourists. as can be seen in the case of Otto, an American tourist, who was arrested and sent back to the U.S. in terrible condition, and died a few days after his return.
17. Sri Lanka
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 29
World Peace Index Ranking: 75
Homicide rate ranking: 148
Sri Lanka faced a sovereign debt crisis in 2022, resulting in the country’s rating being downgraded. However, it looks like the country’s economic situation is improving now and is aiming to improve tourism demand in a bid to facilitate the country’s GDP.
16. Tajikistan
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 50
World Peace Index Ranking: 38
Homicide rate ranking: 177
While relatively safe, terrorists still occasionally carry out attacks including on Western bicyclists in 2018, not to mention another attack in 2019 on a government border post.
15. Kyrgyz Republic
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 93
World Peace Index Ranking: 30
Homicide rate ranking: 100
Kyrgyzstan has seen a huge improvement in its homicide rate though its average is still skewed by higher homicide rates in the early 2010s.
14. Bangladesh
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 43
World Peace Index Ranking: 48
Homicide rate ranking: 152
Bangladesh is the second-most improved country in South Asia in terms of terrorism, and only two such attacks were recorded in 2022, with no fatalities.
13. Palestine
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 33
World Peace Index Ranking: 23
Homicide rate ranking: 216
Palestine’s fight against a much more powerful Israel for independence has resulted in insecurity and instability in the region, but at the same time does host terrorist groups such as Hamas.
12. Lebanon
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 52
World Peace Index Ranking: 26
Homicide rate ranking: 135
While Lebanon’s score in the World Peace Index has continued to improve, it is still among the most dangerous countries in Asia.
11. Israel
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 25
World Peace Index Ranking: 27
Homicide rate ranking: 180
Israel has been accused of violating international law against Palestine and even of carrying out a genocide, with many also claim that its army carries out terrorism. On the other hand, it does face a threat from Palestinian terrorists which have recorded several attacks in Israel in 2022.
10. Thailand
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 26
World Peace Index Ranking: 61
Homicide rate ranking: 108
Thailand is one of the most visited countries in the world, and has also recorded a significant improvement in its Global Peace Index score. If this trajectory continues, it could soon drop off our list.
9. India
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 13
World Peace Index Ranking: 31
Homicide rate ranking: 138
India saw a decline in deaths due to terrorist activities, which may be a direct result of the country being among those with the biggest increase in military expenditure.
8. Iran
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 21
World Peace Index Ranking: 13
Homicide rate ranking: 155
There were seven terrorist attacks in Iran in 2022 which resulted in 42 deaths, signifying the country being among the most dangerous nations in Asia.
7. Syria
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 5
World Peace Index Ranking: 3
Homicide rate ranking: 168
Syria is another Asian country known for the major humanitarian crisis it has been facing as a result of a civil war which started in 2011. Many foreign countries are also involved in the war including Iran, Turkey, Russia and the U.S., which has simply worsened an already complex situation.
6. Philippines
World Terrorism Index Ranking: 18
World Peace Index Ranking: 35
Homicide rate ranking: 75
Philippine’s World Terrorism Index ranking has been impacted by a couple of attacks in the country by IS, resulting in three deaths.
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Disclosure: None. 20 most dangerous countries in Asia is originally published on Insider Monkey.