In this article, we will take a look at the 16 countries where population will fall by 2030. To skip our detailed analysis, go directly to 5 Countries Where Population Will Fall by 2030.
The World Population Outlook by 2050
A report by the United Nations highlights that Earth will be home to 9.7 billion people by 2050. Countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to experience magnificent growth in their population. In fact, India is expected to take over the number one spot with the largest population in the world by 2027.
The report also highlights the 9 countries expected to experience the largest growth in their population in the next 30 years. These include India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States of America.
However, the global birth rate is expected to slow down with every passing decade. The average number of births per woman dropped to 2.5 in 2019 from 3.2 in 1990. Additionally, the birth rate per woman is expected to decrease to 2.2 births per woman by 2050.
The report suggests that a fertility level of at least 2.1 births per woman must prevail to maintain the current population level. Twenty-seven countries have already experienced a decline in their population due to falling fertility rates. By 2050, the United Nations expects 55 countries to experience a decline in their population; for some, the drop may be as large as 10%.
Ukraine: A Case on The Implications of a Declining Population
Declining birth rates are not the only reason for this phenomenon. Factors such as increasing immigration from a country, natural disasters, and wars tend to produce similar outcomes. For instance, the recent Ukraine-Russia conflict has immensely shaped the population demographic of Ukraine. On August 1, BBC reported that the war had led to a 28% decline in the birth rate in Ukraine. Additionally, 6 million people have fled from the country to reside in other countries in the Eurozone.
The implications of a declining population may have a range of consequences for economies like Ukraine. On July 7, Reuters reported how the war has left people with new challenges. These include having to rebuild the country from scratch while maintaining a certain standard of living. With millions of people fleeing from the country, bringing back or maintaining the pre-war standard of living is even more challenging; or close to impossible.
The report discusses a living example of a woman, Natalka Korzh, a TV director, who had her life figured out in her newly built house before the war broke out. She had to escape to protect herself and her family from the war. She shifted to Portugal and does not plan to return to Ukraine even after the guns settle. According to the report, only one out of 10 people intend to return to Ukraine after the war subsides. The significant loss of the working population in Ukraine is detrimental to the country’s economic recovery.
Additionally, a major cause of concern for economists and businesspersons alike is the possible shortage of skilled labor in the long run. Volodymyr Kostiuk, CEO of Farmak, one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the country, suggested that the company needed more skilled laboratory workers to make enough revenue. He indicated that efforts to bring people back must be made to prevent business loss as it may harm the economy once the war subsides. Moreover, a poll conducted by a Ukrainian think-tank, the Institute for Economic Research and Political Studies suggested that of 500 businesses, one-third saw labor shortages as a key challenge post-war.
Maintaining a certain level of population growth is important for the economic progress of a country. Without enough young and skilled labor, it is close to impossible for a country to grow and establish itself as a strong unit. Countries and their respective cities showing promising signs of population growth are also among the cities with the fastest growing economies.
How Does a Growing Population Benefit Africa?
On the other end of the spectrum, Africa shows promising signs of population growth in the coming years. In fact, according to the report by the United Nations, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double by 2050. Check out countries with the highest rates of population growth.
The African region has one of the world’s most human and natural resources. Its young population is only expected to grow and accelerate in the next few decades, showing promising signs for the African economy. A report by McKinsey Global Institute, published on June 5, discusses the opportunities for the African economy.
According to the report, the region experienced poor economic growth between 2010 to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict only worsened matters for the African economy. However, certain countries and cities within the region have shown promising signs due to investment in innovation. These include Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, to name a few.
The report also highlights that African countries are rapidly adapting to develop a large tertiary or service industry. The report suggests that employment in the services industry increased from 30% to 39% in 2019. Moreover, the services sector contributed to 49% of the region’s economic output in 2019, followed by 50% in 2020. The report builds on the narrative that to boost the African economy to new heights, African economies must exploit opportunities within this sector.
With that, let’s see major companies driving the African economy. These include Naspers Limited (OTC:NPSNY), MTN Group Limited (OTC:MTNOY), and Vodacom Group Limited (OTC:VDMCY).
Naspers Limited (OTC:NPSNY) is a technology, internet, and multimedia multinational in South Africa. Naspers Limited (OTC:NPSNY) owns the famous global investment group Prosus N.V. (OTC:PROSY). On September 12, Naspers Limited (OTC:NPSNY) announced the launch of the company’s new generative AI tool by Prosus N.V. (OTC:PROSY). PlusOne is a generative tool used by the company internally. The tool integrates with existing systems used by the company, such as Slack, to enhance efficiency and communication.
MTN Group Limited (OTC:MTNOY) is a multinational mobile telecommunications industry in South Africa. The company is not only a harbor of growth for the African economy; in fact, MTN Group Limited (OTC:MTNOY) is also big on corporate social responsibility. Incorporating CSR gives the company a big name in the international market. On September 20, the company announced that the Africa-America Institute awarded MTN Group Limited (OTC:MTNOY) the 2023 corporate social responsibility award. To shed light on the growing need for companies to invest in technology while also maintaining their responsibility to society, the CEO and MTN Group President, Ralph Mupita, stated:
“These people are still not digitally connected and could well end up as a digital underclass. We must ensure that as technologies such as AI develop, we also get large language models trained in African languages. Initiatives such as conversational payments that are taking root in places like India must come rapidly to Africa.”
To add to the importance of sustainability, MTN Group’s Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer Nompilo Morafo stated:
“Our business has always been about more than connectivity; it’s about empowering communities, driving inclusion, championing diversity, and ensuring that our operations leave a positive, lasting impact.”
Vodacom Group Limited (OTC:VDMCY) is a mobile communications company based in South Africa. The company is continuously striving to enhance mobile usage and connectivity in Africa. On September 21, the company reported that Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal invested over ZAR 1 billion to enhance user network connectivity. Of this budget, almost ZAR 700 million will be directed towards projects related to radio access networks and network capacity upgrades. Moreover, ZAR 173 million will be allocated to enhancing the core mobile network infrastructure. To shed light on the investment by Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal, Imran Khan, managing executive at Vodacom KwaZulu-Natal, stated:
“In pursuing our aim of creating an inclusive digital society, we are making a significant investment into the region’s network. By expanding access to reliable, quality connectivity by deploying more sites and network upgrades, we aim to provide an exceptional network experience to our customers. With this effort, we hope to bring the benefits of digitalization to all communities we serve.”
Countries with a growing population immensely benefit in economic terms. A larger population indicates that the country is home to a large but young working population. However, with limited resources left to support future generations, countries must be able to maintain a balanced population. Let’s discuss the 16 countries where population will fall by 2030.
Copyright: rawpixel / 123RF Stock Photo
Our Methodology
We sourced data from the UN population data portal for our article, 16 countries where the population will fall by 2030. The UN data portal has information for all countries, territories, and Islands. The database incorporates a range of metrics surrounding gender, age, use of contraceptives, and birth rates, among others.
For our methodology, we acquired the population level in 1990, followed by the forecasted population in 2030. Using these two figures, we calculated the population growth rate between 1990 and 2030. It is to be noted that all the values are estimates extracted from the UN data portal. For countries with the same rate of population decline, we ranked them in alphabetical order. All countries with a negative growth rate were included in the list below. The list is in ascending order of the countries’ respective population drops.
16 Countries Where Population Will Fall by 2030
16. Japan
Population in 1990: 124 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 119 Million
Population Drop: 4.03%
Japan is expected to experience one of the largest declines in population by 2030. A higher death rate compared to a birth rate along with a large aging population are primary reasons for the decline.
While Japan is expected to experience a drop in population, Africa’s population is expected to surge. Some of the top companies leading the African economy include Naspers Limited (OTC:NPSNY), MTN Group Limited (OTC:MTNOY), and Vodacom Group Limited (OTC:VDMCY).
15. Russia
Population in 1990: 148 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 141 Million
Population Drop: 4.73%
A large number of abortions coupled with a high death rate and a declining life expectancy rate are all factors contributing to the possible decline in population in the Russian Federation.
14. Belarus
Population in 1990: 10 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 9 Million
Population Drop: 10%
Belarus is among the countries that are expected to experience the largest decline in population by 2030. Primary reasons for this decline include low birth rates, high mortality rates, high outflow of migrants, and a declining fertility rate. Moreover, the country has been dealing with a huge child mortality crisis since the Chernobyl accident in 1986.
13. Serbia
Population in 1990: 8 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 7 Million
Population Drop: 12.5%
Serbia is among the countries that are expected to experience the largest decline in population by 2030. Primary reasons for this decline include low birth rates, high mortality rates, high outflow of migrants, and a declining fertility rate. The population of Serbia could further drop to 5.8 million by 2050.
12. Romania
Population in 1990: 23 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 19 Million
Population Drop: 17.39%
Romania is currently dealing with a huge population issue. Declining birth rates coupled with a high mortality rate and an aging population are among the primary reasons for the expected population drop by 2030.
11. Georgia
Population in 1990: 5 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 4 Million
Population Drop: 20%
Georgia is among the countries that are expected to experience the largest decline in population by 2030. Primary reasons for this decline include low birth rates, high mortality rates, high outflow of migrants, and a declining fertility rate.
10. Croatia
Population in 1990: 5 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 4 Million
Population Drop: 20%
Wartime human losses combined with a declining birth rate are the primary reasons for the current decline in the population of Croatia. The country is expected to experience a 20% drop in population by 2030 as compared to 1990.
9. Puerto Rico
Population in 1990: 4 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 3 Million
Population Drop: 25%
Puerto Rico is expected to experience one of the largest declines in population by 2030. A higher death rate compared to a birth rate along with a large number of emigrants are primary reasons for the decline.
8. Republic of Moldova
Population in 1990: 4 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 3 Million
Population Drop: 25%
High levels of emigration have long been a primary concern for the Republic of Moldova. The country is expected to experience a 25% drop in population by 2030 as compared to 1990.
7. Lithuania
Population in 1990: 4 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 3 Million
Population Drop: 25%
Lithuania is expected to experience the largest decline in population by 2030. A higher death rate compared to a birth rate along with a large number of emigrants are primary reasons for the decline.
6. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Population in 1990: 4 Million
Expected Population in 2030: 3 Million
Population Drop: 25%
A declining birth rate combined with an aging population has contributed to the rank of Bosnia and Herzegovina among the countries expected to experience a major drop in population by 2030.
While some countries are expected to experience a huge drop in their populations, Africa is expected to undergo healthy population growth. For investors looking to increase their exposure to the African market, some stocks they can look up include Naspers Limited (OTC:NPSNY), MTN Group Limited (OTC:MTNOY), and Vodacom Group Limited (OTC:VDMCY).
Click to continue reading and see 5 Countries Where Population Will Fall by 2030.
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Disclosure. None. 16 Countries Where Population Will Fall by 2030 is originally published on Insider Monkey.