In this article, we shall discuss the 12 most unfriendly cities in Canada. To skip our detailed analysis of the macroeconomic outlook of Canada, and the tourism and hospitality industry in Canada in 2024, go directly and see 5 Most Unfriendly Cities in Canada.
Canada’s Economic Outlook 2024: An Overview
According to a review by S&P Global, Canada’s economic outlook in 2024 is to remained subdued, with real GDP growth expected at only a sluggish 0.9% in 2024, which is only slightly better than 0.7% forecasts from November 2023. To measure economic growth whilst eliminating the statistical carry-over bias of the typically reported ‘annual average’, GDP is expected to grow at a little over 1% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2023. Despite this, the report predicts that the economy will do better in 2024 than it did in the final three quarters of 2023. Hence, although growth momentum has picked up slightly in Q1 2024, it has done so from an exceptionally low base. On the housing front, the economy seems to be in a bit of an uptick, with homes sales tracking higher than in Q4 2023 despite slowing down in February in many of the unfriendliest cities in Canada. The mortgage picked up during the first 2 months of 2024, which is expected to propel residential investment growth in Q2 2024. Furthermore, inflation has dropped to 2.8% in March 2024, just below the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s1%-3% target with consensus forecasts surging through to 3.1%. The central bank’s preferred core inflation plummeted in Q1 2024 to a 3.2% average year-on-year, down from 3.4% in December 2023.
Despite favorable indicators, even in many of the most unfriendly cities in Canada, investors are still wary of investing in Canada as they do not expect a sustained uptick in GDP growth unless monetary policies are relaxed. Aggregate outlays are still underperforming, especially on a per capita basis, causing unemployment to rise by 0.8 percentage points as compared to Q4 2023. This is also owing to an increased supply in the labor force fueled by a skyrocketing immigrant population in some of the unfriendliest cities in Canada. Employment rates have also been hovering around the pre-pandemic average as private players slowed down hiring processes during the second quarter of 2023. Today, employment growth has fallen behind population growth for more than 13 straight months. With domestic demand unfavorable at best, Canada’s employment prospects continue to remain bleak, with unemployment set to increase to more than 6.3% by the end of 2024 after averaging at a little over 5.4% in 2023.
Investor sentiment around the Canadian economy in 2024 can be accurately gauged by evaluating the performance of some of the ETFs we covered in our article 10 Best Canadian ETFs, like the iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF (XUS.TO), which mirrors the performance of the S&P 500 Index, net of expenses. Incepted on April 10, 2013, the fund has 503 underlying holdings as of April 25. In the last five years, the fund is up 76.3% as of April 26. Another ETF worth considering is the Horizons S&P 500 Index ETF (HXS.TO), which is the fourth largest ETF operator in Canada with $20.28 billion of assets under management as of April 26. In the last five years, the ETF is up more than 88.14% as of April 26, signaling incredibly strong investor sentiment around the Canadian economy.
Business Travel in Canada: An Analysis
According to market research firm Mordor Intelligence, the Canadian tourism market is valued at $16.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach valuations of $17.2 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 1.17% during the five-year forecast period. At the end of 2023, nominal spending in Canada’s tourism sector hit $109.5 billion, topping 2019 levels of roughly $105.1 billion. However, record inflation and high interest rates in a post-pandemic macroeconomic environment may have fueled this total, with the report predicting that the industry will have to generate spending of more than $122 billion to match pre-pandemic spending in real terms. In this vein, travel spending is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels for another 2 to 3 years, especially in some of the most unfriendly cities in Canada.
A major trend affecting the Canadian travel industry in 2024 is the resurgence of business travel, with business travel expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024, which is one year later than the wider North American regions but in line with global recovery. For 2024, business travel spending is forecasted to reach $25.9 billion, representing an annual growth rate of 13.5%, especially in many of the most unfriendly cities in Canada. This outpaces global recovery, which stands at 11.8% and also lags recovery in the United States, which as we mentioned in our article on the 20 Most Visited Cities in the US by Foreign Travelers, stands at a mere 9.2%. According to pre-pandemic calculations, in 2019, Canadian business travel spending stood at $25.7 billion, before succumbing to COVID-19 closures. According to survey data by the GBTA, Canadian travel buyers expect to spend more on business travel in 2024, with more than 59% projecting higher spending by companies relative to 2023. More than 65% of Canadian business travelers expect their companies to take more business trips in 2024, with more than 55% of travelers reporting an average spending of $884 per business trip in 2023. In light of the resurgence of business travel in Canada, investors are seeming more enthusiastic about stocks like Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB), Marriot International Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR), and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT).
One major way to gauge increasing investor interest in such stocks is to evaluate the performance of prominent travel ETFs like the Harvest Travel & Leisure Index ETF (TSE:TRVL), which provides investors with exposure to the growth trends in the travel industry driven by structural, demographic forces, even in the most unfriendly cities in Canada. With more than 30 equities under management including prominent major beneficiaries of business travel like Marriot International Inc. (NASDAQ:MAR), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) and Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB), in the last five years, the fund is up more than 24.23% as of April 26. Another ETF which needs to be considered is the Defiance Hotel Airline and Cruise ETF (NYSE:CRUZ) which tracks the performance of 63 holdings of the BlueStar Global Hotels, Airlines, and Cruises Index. In the last one year, the fund is up more than 26.3% as of April 26, signaling strong investor interest in travel stocks. To read on more potential tourist destinations in the near future, check out our article on 20 Countries That Have The Potential To Be Major Tourist Destinations.
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Our Methodology
To compile our list of the 12 most unfriendly cities in Canada, we decided to undertake a consensus-based approach using a diverse variety of credible sources like travel blogs, news articles and Reddit threads to ascertain some of the rudest, unfriendliest cities in Canada (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). We then shortlisted more than 30 cities which appeared most frequently during our research. Since unfriendliness is an incredibly multifaceted and complex phenomenon, we established a three-pronged criteria to measure the level of unfriendliness in each city using the index from our articles The World’s 30 Unfriendliest Cities Heading into 2024 and Top 20 Unfriendliest Cities in the US: the criteria is premised on the frequency of unpleasant tourist interactions (15 points), lack of tourist infrastructure (10 points), and incidents of scams and crime (5 points). We then proceeded to award each city a cumulative score according to the aforementioned criteria and selected 12 cities which scored the highest points. Subsequently, we ranked each entry based on the total points scored, from lowest to highest. Where there was a tie, we broke it based on the frequency of unpleasant tourist interactions.
By the way, Insider Monkey is an investing website that tracks the movements of corporate insiders and hedge funds. By using a similar consensus approach, we identify the best stock picks of more than 900 hedge funds investing in US stocks. The top 10 consensus stock picks of hedge funds outperformed the S&P 500 Index by more than 140 percentage points over the last 10 years (see the details here). Whether you are a beginner investor or professional one looking for the best stocks to buy, you can benefit from the wisdom of hedge funds and corporate insiders.
As Asia emerges as home to some of the most popular tourist destinations in the world, you can get a more nuanced perspective on the market by checking out our coverage of 15 Most Unfriendly Countries in Asia.
12 Most Unfriendly Cities in Canada
12. Kitchener
Insider Monkey’s Score: 16
Even though Kitchener is known as a student city because of two popular universities situated there, the transport system in the city is not thought to be effective. Many tourists find it difficult to move from one place to another within a city. There are various travel restrictions in Kitchener and the commute is generally known to be extremely expensive, making Kitchener one of the most unfriendly cities in Canada.
11. Edmonton
Insider Monkey’s Score: 17
Edmonton is known for having one of the highest crime rates in Canada. Some of the main forms of crimes in the city include robbery and physical assault. Every year, the crime rate in Edmonton increases by a certain percentage. Due to this, many tourists find the city to be unwelcoming and many residents feel unsafe living in the city.
10. Winnipeg
Insider Monkey’s Score: 17
In recent years, the crime rates have been increasing in Winnipeg. It is known to have the highest violent crime severity index in Canada. This is primarily because of economic instability, poverty, and marginalization of people. The high rates of crime in Winnipeg are seen as an unwelcoming trait by visitors, making it one of the most unfriendly cities in Canada.
9. Toronto
Insider Monkey’s Score: 19
Many visitors report having unpleasant interactions with the locals in Toronto. The people of Toronto are generally described as rude, reserved, and self-centered. This may be because Toronto is a big city and so the people of Toronto may be occupied with the hustle and bustle of city life. However, outsiders still feel unwelcome while visiting the city.
8. Mississauga
Insider Monkey’s Score: 21
Mississauga has a lack of social spaces, including green spaces and parks, which makes it difficult for tourists to visit the country and relax. Additionally, the transit system in the city is not known to be very effective, making it difficult for visitors to travel within the city. This makes Mississauga one of the most unwelcoming cities in Canada.
7. Ottawa
Insider Monkey’s Score: 22
The infrastructure in Ottawa is considered to be extremely unsatisfactory, which makes it difficult for newcomers and tourists to travel across the city. The subway system specifically, is thought to be incredibly inconvenient to use. Primarily due to these reasons, many outsiders perceive Ottawa as one of the most unwelcoming cities in Canada.
6. Vaughan
Insider Monkey’s Score: 22
Even though Vaughan is generally safe, many people consider it to be one of the most unfriendly cities in Canada. This is mainly because the people of Vaughan are thought to be extremely rude. Some of the recurring complaints by tourists include being disengaged from the environment, being too noisy in public, and not letting people merge into traffic.
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Disclosure: None. 12 Most Unfriendly Cities in Canada is originally published on Insider Monkey.