In this article, we look at the 12 most powerful countries in the Middle East as we head into 2024. You can skip our detailed analysis on the race for power in this critical oil-rich region and head over directly to the 5 Most Powerful Countries in the Middle East Heading into 2024.
The Middle East is a region of major power imbalances and inequalities, with wealthy high-tech countries bordering neighbors ravaged by war. While some governments are able to subsidize education, healthcare, and electricity, others next door are crippled by high poverty, unemployment, and power cuts.
The major source of this disparity is oil and gas – vast reserves of which have propelled some Middle Eastern countries to be richer than others. That being said, it is not only access to these two natural resources that made these nations wealthy. Shifting political realities of the region and their strategic relationships with global powers have also contributed to their fortunes.
Oil and Gas in the Middle East
According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), 53% of the world’s proven oil reserves, and half of all natural gas reserves are in the Middle East. These two natural resources account for 51% of all exports from the region. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait are among the largest oil producing countries in the world, with their citizens enjoying some of the highest quality of living.
Several large multinational oil and gas companies such as Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) have been operating in the Middle East for nearly a century now and have invested billions of dollars in exploration, extraction, and production of oil and gas.
Local companies in the industry also fare well. Saudi Aramco, for instance, is the largest oil and gas company in the world, and the second largest company in the world by revenue – only next to Walmart. Saudi Aramco produces an estimated 13 million barrels of oil each day. The sheer magnitude of its operations can be gauged by its net profit of $161 billion in 2022, which was more than triple of what Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) earned during the same year.
Financing Military Power
Many oil-rich countries are also leveraging their economic strength to bolster their national defense as well. Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil producer in the Middle East, was the fifth highest spender on defense in the world in 2022, with an estimated $75 billion in military spending. This included a $3 billion purchase of Patriot missiles produced by RTX Corporation (NYSE:RTX) to protect the Saudis from rocket attacks from Houthis in Yemen.
The Saudis have also emphasized on developing their own defense industry. Reuters reported in March 2022 that Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) would invest $1 billion in manufacturing parts of its THAAD missile defense system in Saudi Arabia.
During the same year, the UAE also acquired THAAD missile defense system from the United States for a deal worth $2.25 billion in 2022, while Egypt received an C-130J-30 Super Hercules Aircraft. The contractor for both deals was Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT).
The Saudis and Emiratis have also been looking to buy Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT)’s F-35 fighter jets. That interest has so far not been heeded by the United States, which feels it could trigger an arms race in the region. Blocked from the F-35s, Abu Dhabi went ahead and acquired 80 Rafale fighter jets from France and Riyadh is contemplating to do the same.
Arab-Israeli Normalization
Parts of the Middle East have remained restive and had regimes antagonistic towards the United States for its support for Israel amid its territorial dispute with Palestine. Israel is one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East today and enjoys strong diplomatic, financial, and military support from the United States.
Efforts have been made over several decades to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. Much success has been achieved in recent years, with the landmark Abraham Accords agreement in 2020 which normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. This was followed by Sudan and Morocco establishing ties with Israel in 2021.
Since 2020, the UAE and Israel have signed a free trade agreement and signed trade deals worth $10 billion. In March, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) and BP p.l.c. (NYSE:BP) jointly offered $2 billion to acquire 50% of Israeli natural gas producer NewMed Energy.
Earlier this year in September, the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman said his country was getting closer to a historic normalization agreement with Israel. Talks have broken off since, after Israel invaded the Gaza strip in response to Hamas launching a ‘surprise attack’ on Israel on October 7.
Turkey’s Power
Turkey is another powerhouse in the region that has taken on an influential role in its neighborhood under President Erdogan’s government driven by its ideology of neo-Ottomanism and nationalism. Ankara has played an active part in the conflicts in Syria and Libya, and positioned itself as a mediator in many political and diplomatic tussles in the Islamic world.
Economically, despite the Turkish Lira crashing, the country remains a force with a nominal GDP closing in on the one trillion dollar mark. Its cultural influence is also at an all-time high with millions of tourists flocking to Istanbul every year. The government has also spent heavily over the last decade or so on promoting Turkish culture through television series, some of which have been focused on projecting Turkey as the guardian of all Muslims beyond its borders.
Methodology
We have ranked the 12 most powerful countries in the Middle East heading into 2024 basing our analysis on four metrics – economic strength, military strength, political soft power, and cultural influence. How these countries ranked in the Middle East on each metric was identified, after which weights were assigned to each metric – 60% to economic and military strength, and 40% to political power and cultural influence. Aggregated scores were calculated after these weights were applied. Countries are ranked in descending order of the weighted rankings.
Data has been sourced from 50 Largest Economies in the World in 2023, 25 Most Powerful Militaries in the World, Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index 2023, USA News, and CEO World. Methodology for cultural rankings was the same as used in our 2022 article, Cultural Influence by Country: Top 25 with the Most Cultural Influence.
An aerial view of Dubai, the 2016 epicenter of the technology industry.
Let’s now head over to the list of the most powerful countries in the Middle East heading into 2024.
Top 12 Most Powerful Countries in the Middle East:
12. Bahrain
Economic Strength Rank: 13
Military Strength Rank: 13
Political Soft Power Rank: 9
Cultural Influence Rank: 14
Weighted Score: 12.15
Bahrain is one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East. The country has a stable economy, sized at $44 billion, and a per capita GDP of just over $26,000. Bahrain also boasts one of the most powerful currencies in the world, with the Bahraini Dinar only being second to the Kuwaiti Dinar in terms of exchange rate strength against the US Dollar.
Politically as well, Manama has a critical role to play in the region. It allied with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt during the tensions with Qatar in 2017, and then in 2020, it signed the Abraham Accords along with the UAE to establish ties with Israel.
11. Jordan
Economic Strength Rank: 12
Military Strength Rank: 14
Political Soft Power Rank: 10
Cultural Influence Rank: 9
Weighted Score: 11.65
Jordan is another critical country in the Middle East, that borders conflict-hit Syria to the north, Iraq in the east, and Israel and the West Bank to its west. The country enjoys strong relations with the United States and the two nations work together to advance peace and moderation in the Middle East. Jordan is a major recipient of American financial and military assistance.
10. Oman
Economic Strength Rank: 10
Military Strength Rank: 11
Political Soft Power Rank: 8
Cultural Influence Rank: 10
Weighted Score: 9.8
Oman is one of the strongest countries in the Middle East, despite not being as rich in oil and gas as some of the other powerful regional countries are. A key strength of Oman is its strategic location which it has used to become a major logistic hub in the region.
Moreover, the Omani government has maintained a balance in relations with both regional neighbors and global powers, and has shied away from being an active part of conflicts.
9. Iraq
Economic Strength Rank: 7
Military Strength Rank: 6
Political Soft Power Rank: 14
Cultural Influence Rank: 12
Weighted Score: 9.2
Iraq was ravaged by war after the US invaded the country in 2003, and then later by ISIS making advances in various parts of the country. Unlike what we have seen in Afghanistan, Iraq has been able to turn things around and get up on its feet again. Much of the Iraqi economy is dependent on oil. The country is the fifth largest producer of oil in the world, with proven reserves of an estimated 145 billion barrels.
The Iraqi military is battle-hardened after its successes against terrorist groups, and ranks 45th in the world according to the Global Firepower Index of 2023.
8. Kuwait
Economic Strength Rank: 9
Military Strength Rank: 12
Political Soft Power Rank: 6
Cultural Influence Rank: 8
Weighted Score: 9.00
Kuwait is one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East. It was ranked 35th out of 121 countries on Brand Finance’s Global Soft Power Index in 2023, which makes it the sixth most politically influential country in the Middle East. Much of its strength is derived from its vast reserves of oil and gas.
Kuwait has a history of armed conflicts with Iraq, because of which it has raised a strong military. However, in recent decades, it has kept itself at a distance from regional conflicts and focused on strengthening itself economically. The Kuwait Dinar is the strongest currency in the world against the US Dollar.
7. Iran
Economic Strength Rank: 6
Military Strength Rank: 4
Political Soft Power Rank: 12
Cultural Influence Rank: 7
Weighted Score: 7.05
Despite facing western sanctions for several decades, Iran still manages to be one of the strongest countries in the Middle East heading into 2024. Militarily, its armed forces are known for their battle-hardness. The country’s military boasts a manpower of nearly 600,000 troops and a tank fleet of more than 4,000.
Iran ranks highly on its cultural influence in the world, be it in the soft form through Persian culture, heritage, and cuisine, or through the hard form by having political groups and militias in regional countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria that are loyal to the regime in Tehran.
6. Qatar
Economic Strength Rank: 8
Military Strength Rank: 9
Political Soft Power Rank: 4
Cultural Influence Rank: 6
Weighted Score: 7.00
Qatar is one of the most powerful countries in the Middle East because of its wealth of natural resources in oil and gas. In 2017, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt ended diplomatic relations with Doha, and even went on to enforce a blockade on the country due to a diplomatic row that lasted a couple of years. Qatar still managed to come out unscathed through its ties with Iran and Turkey.
It is also among the most politically and culturally influential countries in the world. A reputation that has further grown after Qatar successfully hosted the 2022 FIFA World Cup and welcomed thousands of travelers from across the world.
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Disclosure: None. 12 Most Powerful Countries in the Middle East Heading into 2024 is originally published on Insider Monkey.
