In this article, we will take a look at what the future could hold for the US housing market as well as the 12 best housing stocks to invest in according to analysts.
The US Housing Market: An Outlook for 2025
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of previously owned homes rose 4.8% in November as compared to October. Contracts for these homes were likely signed in September and October as mortgage rates fell to an 18-month low in September but then moved higher in October. Regarding the future of mortgage rates, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin expects mortgage rates to stay around the 6% range for the next two years instead of rates declining to the 5% range in the next year or even the following. In an interview with CNBC, Reffkin states that the market will improve, with pending applications to purchase a home currently up 10% year-over-year. He considers not having enough inventory to be the key issue. While inventory has climbed over the year which is a positive, it is still 20% less than pre-pandemic levels.
On December 18, The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by another quarter point marking its third rate cut in 2024. However, mortgage rates rose. For the week ending December 19, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate spiked to 6.72%. Orphe Divounguy, Zillow senior economist, joined CNBC to talk about the firm’s 2025 housing market outlook. He stuck to an optimistic view for the coming year pointing towards mortgage rates easing relative to their current levels which is going to drive higher home sales. Regarding increasing home sales, Divounguy thinks new construction will see more activity. New home sales increased in November regardless of the increase in mortgage rates. Meanwhile, existing home sales are expected to rebound but not that much. Thus, the overall housing market will be healthy considering more homeowners starting to come back to the housing market.
Ivy Zelman, Zelman & Associates executive vice president, countered the above optimistic view as she expects more challenges ahead for the housing market. In an interview with CNBC, she mentioned how the entry-level buyer remains troubled due to affordability issues which are worse off with elevated mortgage rates. As the affordability index is about 25% above the trend line for existing homes and 10% to 15% higher for new homes, the market is challenging.
Now that we have reviewed the housing market, let’s move to the 12 best housing stocks to invest in according to analysts.
A wide shot of a residential housing development taking shape with heavy machinery in the foreground.
Our Methodology:
In order to compile a list of the 12 best housing stocks to invest in according to analysts, we first used a stock screener to make an extended list of the relevant companies with the highest market caps. Moving on, we shortlisted the top 12 stocks from our list which had the highest average upside potential. The 12 best housing stocks to invest in according to analysts have been arranged in ascending order of their average upside potential, as of December 27.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
12 Best Housing Stocks to Invest in According to Analysts
12. Independence Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:IRT)
Average Upside Potential: 10.22%
Independence Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:IRT) is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates multifamily apartment properties across non-gateway US markets including Atlanta, Louisville, Memphis, and Raleigh.
IRT delivers industry-leading operating performance, outpacing industry growth over the past few years as compared to peers in non-gateway and coastal markets. Due to the firm’s attractive location in Sunbelt markets, as well as its investments in value-add renovations and new development initiatives, the momentum for the business is expected to continue.
The high-growth Sunbelt and Midwest regions have shown strong fundamentals with favorable population migration trends due to a lower cost of living, better tax policy, and growing economic opportunity. Additionally, the rent versus buy differential will support rental demand in 2024, with ownership costs 55% to 231% higher than IRT’s rent on average.
In the third quarter of 2024, IRT grew its average occupancy by 90 basis points to 95.4% with a 1.2% increase in average rental rates. The company’s focus on resident renewal and retention during 2024 continues to support occupancy with the third quarter retention of 57%, up from 55.8% in 2Q 2024. IRT also hit a major milestone in October as it received a ‘BBB’ investment grade credit rating from S&P Global Ratings, marking the firm’s second investment grade rating since receiving one from Fitch Ratings in early March.
11. American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH)
Average Upside Potential: 10.51%
American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) is a leading large-scale integrated owner, operator, and developer of single-family rental homes. While the company started by acquiring, renovating, and leasing single-family homes in an undersupplied rental market, it has grown to launch its own homebuilding arm through which it offers new communities across the US.
The company serves as one of the leading single-family rental companies and homebuilders in the country, regarded for quality and integrity. AMH has reimagined single-family living to make leasing a home easy and accessible since 2012. The firm owned nearly 60,000 single-family properties in the Southeast, Midwest, Southwest, and Mountain West regions of the US, as of September 30, 2024.
American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE:AMH) favors from long-term housing tailwinds such as a national shortage of high quality single family homes, limited new construction, single-family rents being a lot cheaper than home ownership costs, and millennials aging into prime single-family living years.
In a favorable market, the company is pursuing a consistent and strong external growth strategy. While AMH, the largest integrated single-family rental builder, has 2,200 to 2,400 deliveries expected in 2024, it opportunistically acquired a portfolio of nearly 1,700 high-quality detached single-family rental homes that overlay well within the firm’s existing footprint.
