The results of the UK’s referendum may have shocked the world (and the UK as well), but these 10 countries that will benefit from Brexit are surely looking forward to London invoking Article 50.
Despite what Nigel Farage has been telling us, Brexit is by no means a done deal. While the referendum vote was clear, the aftermath showed us that support for leaving the EU isn’t quite clear. If the referendum was to be held again a week later, there’s a little doubt that the result wouldn’t be very different. Still, a vote is a vote, and it must be respected. The UK voters have made their bed and now must lay in it, together with the rest of the Europe that didn’t get to have a say in the matter.
The procedure for leaving doesn’t begin by the vote itself, though. United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Theresa May have announced that she intends to invoke the infamous article 50 by March 17th, 2017. However, UK Supreme Court, presiding by Lord Chief Justice Lord Thomas has ruled that invoking the Article 50 is a prerogative of the Parliament and that the government must put it to a vote before proceeding. This one will be the vote that matters, as it will be a mandatory one. Although it is hard to imagine MPs voting against their constituencies’ will, it isn’t impossible, especially considering that some two-thirds of MPs oppose Brexit. If anything, the debate should be quite interesting to watch. The government has appealed the decision, and the final verdict will be passed in December. Once Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and their demands are thrown into the mix, it is clear that the road to Brexit will be extremely bumpy one.
The fact that immediately after the court announced its decision the pound rose by 1% shows just how significant Brexit is for the economy. That one percent doesn’t even begin to make up the losses the UK and its citizens have suffered so far, which according to Credit Suisse amount to $1.5 trillion. This loss of wealth has significantly hit the lower income families, and increased number of them barely manages to stay above the poverty line. The rich have also been hit, but they won’t feel it in the same way. The 20% drop in the value of the British Pound since the referendum have cost some 400,000 people their millionaire status.
Even the countries on our list, the ones that will benefit from Brexit, will suffer some negative consequences. The difference is that in their case, the positive ones will hopefully outweigh the negative ones. In the case where several countries share the same benefit, we grouped them together. For some of them, economic gains will be greater than the losses. Interestingly, some of them on this list are also among the 15 Largest Economies In the World Ranked by 2015 PPP. For those that seek political opportunities, the economy is a secondary issue. Let’s see which are the countries that will benefit from Brexit.
9.&10.&11. United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar
Currently, London is one of the biggest hubs of international talents in the world. That can quickly change if the post-Brexit government adopts stricter immigration measures, spurred by the right wing elements in the Conservative Party. The ensuing exodus could benefit Gulf countries, UAE among them the most, due to the country’s fairly liberal stance (at least compared to the rest of the Middle East) on religion and race and general welcoming attitude towards foreign experts.
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7. & 8. Hungary and Poland
Both countries that rank 7th and 8th in our list of countries that will benefit from Brexit have a large expat population currently working in the United Kingdom. If referendum promises are kept, many of them could find themselves unemployed, with the only option of returning home. For the most part, this is a skilled workforce, and both Poland and Hungary are currently experiencing a shortage of skilled workers, especially in medical and IT fields. The downside is that a lot of unqualified, low wage workers will be coming home as well, which can increase the unemployment levels in both countries.
6. Germany
The United Kingdom is Germany’s third largest export market, with 7.5% of all exported goods ending on the British Isles. The immediate aftermath of Brexit will see some turmoil in the German economy, but once the dust has settled, Berlin’s benefit from Brexit will be clear. Economically speaking, Frankfurt will most likely take over from London the title of the financial capital of Europe. The technology sector will also seek a new home and Germany is the logical choice. Long-term speaking, the advantages of these are tremendous and will certainly outweigh all losses incurred in the post-Brexit era. When it comes to politics, Berlin is poised to gain even more. It will become the undisputed European leader (something Germany tried to achieve by war twice in the last century) and will be able to push its agenda on smaller members without London’s meddling. In the end, we just might see a stronger the European Union, with Germany at the helm. And now, let’s see which countries are also on our list of countries that will benefit from Brexit.
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5. Scotland
We are continuing our list of countries that will benefit from Brexit with Scotland and its referendum in 2014 was a clear indication that the majority of the country favors remaining a part of the United Kingdom. The Brexit referendum has somewhat eroded that support, but despite the fact that majority of Scots voted against leaving the European Union, polls indicate that clear, if not that overwhelming, the majority still prefers to be a part of UK. Nicola Sturgeon, the Frist Minister of Scotland, has announced on several occasions that a new referendum is to be held within the Brexit Window, that is two years after the Article 50 is invoked, which is the timeframe the UK has to negotiate an exit deal with Brussels. Once the political and legislative hurdles have been cleared and Theresa May actually invokes Article 50, which will set the UK firmly on the exit path, perhaps Scotts will finally reconsider their support for London and vote on dissolving the Treaty of Union from 1706. William Wallace will finally be avenged.
4. India
Up next in our list of countries that will benefit from Brexit is India, and its benefit from Brexit is mostly indirect. First of all, it will be cheaper for Indians to travel and study in the UK, due to a sharp nosedive taken by the pound after the referendum. Depending on the negotiations with Brussels, UK may also enforce stricter immigration policies toward Europeans, which will open up plenty of opportunities for Indians to fill up the vacancies Polish, Hungarian, Romanian and other Eastern European countries leave open. Finally, the United Kingdom will have to set up new trade deals, post-Brexit and this is India’s chance to secure more favorable status among London’s trading partners.
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3. United States
At first glance, Brexit spells disaster for United States foreign policy. The strongest ally they have in Europe just isolated itself from the European Union, and now the leading roles in Brussels when it comes to foreign affairs will be secured by France and Germany. Both of this countries are much less eager to jump on US bandwagon when it comes to intervention on foreign soil and securing a wide coalition like the ones for the Afghanistan and Iraq wars now seem almost impossible. However, there are few possibilities that can, if conducted carefully, more than make up for America’s loss of influence. First of all, the key for US – EU relationship is finding a way to elevate relations between Washington and Berlin on a new level. This will require careful maneuvering by the State Department and also a dose of humility, but cordial US – German relationship can be a game changer not just for America, but for Europe as well. With European traditional reluctance to properly finance its armed forces (not to mention the loss of UK forces, which only leaves France as battle tested and combat ready army in Europe) NATO will play even bigger role in continent’s security. If Washington plays its card right, United States can in the end benefit greatly from Brexit. And now, let’s see the top two countries that will benefit from Brexit.
2. China
China’s benefit from Brexit is similar to that of India but on a somewhat larger scale. Since its market is more important to the United Kingdom, it stands to reason that Beijing will be able to negotiate a better trading deal. On the other side, China will benefit from smaller and less powerful the European Union. Even with the UK in its fold, Brussels was unable to create a common European policy towards China, allowing Chinese politicians to play divide and conquer by offering juicy deals to certain member states and avoiding a firm European stance on Chinese closed market and one-sided trading practices. While in the short term China may suffer some consequences from the turmoil on the European markets (EU is, after all, its second largest trading partner) in the long run China only stands to gain from Brexit.
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1. Russia
Russia is the number one on our list of countries that will benefit from Brexit. While economic gains may not be significant, if there are any at all, politically speaking Vladimir Putin has hit gold. The strongest anti-Russian voice within the EU, apart from former Warsaw Block countries, came from London. Now that that voice is no longer heard, the chance for some sort of a deal between Brussels and Moscow have increased drastically. Both Germany and France have significant pro-Russian groups which will have a much easier job of swaying their respective government into a deal with Kremlin over a range of issues, including Ukraine, Crimea, and energy supply. At the same time, United States have lost a huge chunk of its influence in Europe, now that their staunchest ally is no longer part of the union.
