Ethanol, also known as ethyl alcohol, is a renewable fuel that can be naturally produced through the fermentation of sugars by yeasts, or it can be man-made through petrochemical processes. Ethanol can be utilized for various applications, but it is majorly used in the US as a gasoline additive in the transportation sector to enhance fuel efficiency and reduce emissions. According to the latest data released by the US Energy Information Administration on December 18, US fuel ethanol production saw a significant increase of more than 2% during the week ending December 13. At the same time, fuel ethanol stocks experienced a slight decline, while exports surged by nearly 33%.
A Catalyst for the Ethanol Industry
The E15 fuel blend, which contains 15% ethanol was restricted due to concerns about increased smog pollution in hot weather. However, earlier in 2024, the E15 fuel blend was temporarily approved in 49 states for the summer and the US government allowed the year-round E15 sales by 2025 only in certain Midwestern states. These regulatory changes boosted the ethanol industry margins as retailers sought to offer lower-cost fuel to consumers.
On December 17, a US government funding bill included a provision allowing year-round sales of gasoline with a higher ethanol blend, specifically E15. This inclusion represents a significant victory for the corn and ethanol industries, which have long advocated for the expansion of E15 sales to boost demand for their products. The plan also provides credits to some refiners for compliance with the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a mandate requiring refiners to blend billions of gallons of biofuels into the nation’s fuel supply or purchase credits from those that do. The biofuels industry has welcomed this provision, with Geoff Cooper, President of the Renewable Fuels Association, expressing hope that the funding bill would be swiftly enacted.
CoBank Report: U.S. Ethanol Production to Remain Steady
According to a report by CoBank, published on December 12, the US ethanol production in 2025 is expected to remain largely unchanged from 2024 levels, with the industry facing significant political and regulatory uncertainties. The report highlights that while the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that ethanol production will average about 1.05 million barrels per day in 2025, the sector is navigating several challenges, including policy uncertainty surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, small refinery exemptions (SREs), and the potential impact of tariffs.
The report notes that the incoming Trump administration is likely to take a cautious approach to proposing new RFS renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2026-2029, preferring to wait for actions on pending SREs. During the previous Trump administration, 34 SREs were granted for the 2017 RFS compliance year, whereas the Biden administration has not approved any SREs and has denied 79 SRE petitions to date. This contrast in policy approaches adds to the regulatory uncertainty facing the industry.
Despite these challenges, the report identifies some positive trends, particularly in the area of global demand for ethanol. CoBank emphasizes that expanding renewable blending requirements in countries around the world are contributing to a growing global demand for ethanol. US ethanol exports are projected to set a new volume record in 2024, with Canada emerging as the top destination. However, the potential for trade policy changes, including the imposition of tariffs on world trading partners and retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products, including ethanol and distillers’ dried grains (DDGs), could limit export growth. Additionally, the expansion of corn ethanol production in Brazil may increase competition in the global market, further impacting US ethanol exports.
With the ethanol industry facing a mix of regulatory changes, global demand shifts, and political uncertainties, the sector is poised for significant developments in the coming years. However, the potential for increased global demand offers promising opportunities for growth. With that in context, let’s take a look at the 11 best ethanol stocks to invest in now.
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Our Methodology
To compile our list of the 11 best ethanol stocks to invest in now, we scanned renewable fuels ETFs plus online rankings to compile an initial list of 20 companies that are involved in the production, sale, or processing of ethanol. Then we used Insider Monkey’s Hedge Fund database to rank 11 stocks according to the largest number of hedge fund holders, as of Q3 2024. The list is sorted in ascending order of hedge fund sentiment.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
11 Best Ethanol Stocks To Invest In Now
11. Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 3
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) is a renewable fuels and biochemicals company primarily focused on producing ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. The company operates an ethanol plant located in California.
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) is pioneering an innovative approach to ethanol production by integrating biogas, specifically sourced from dairy manure, into its manufacturing process. In Q3, the company invested $4.5 million in the construction of dairy digesters. These digesters convert organic waste from dairy farms into biogas and transport it to the company’s ethanol facility in Keyes, California.
By utilizing this biogas as a fuel source, Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) can significantly reduce the carbon footprint of its ethanol production, thereby creating a “low carbon” ethanol product. This approach also makes the ethanol production process more economically viable. In Q3, Aemetis, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMTX) Keyes plant, which has an annual production capacity of 65 million gallons per year, generated $45 million in revenue by producing 15.5 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol.
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) is actively working on building strategic partnerships and expanding the market for ethanol through the promotion and adoption of E15, a 15% ethanol blend. The company is also investing in capital projects to reduce the capital intensity of its ethanol production.
10. Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 7
Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) is a Colorado-based company that specializes in converting renewable energy into energy-dense liquid hydrocarbons for use as renewable fuels. The company’s products include renewable gasoline and diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, renewable natural gas, and ethanol, as well as animal feed and protein. Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) is a pioneer in the conversion of agricultural feedstocks, particularly corn, into protein and ethanol, this ethanol is then further refined into high-value products such as jet fuel.
Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) is poised for significant growth through a combination of strategic acquisitions and technological advancements. In Q3, the company announced the acquisition of ethanol production plant and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) assets of Red Trail Energy. The acquisition brings in a low-carbon ethanol plant with a 65 million gallons per year capacity and an operating CCS site that is currently capturing 160,000 metric tons of carbon annually and generating monetizable tax credits under section 45Q of the tax code.
Furthermore, Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) was granted two patents for its breakthrough ethanol-to-olefin (ETO) process. These patents cover the innovative methods and systems used to convert ethanol into olefins, which are essential building blocks for a wide range of industrial and commercial products.