In this article, we discuss the 10 worst airline stocks according to short sellers along with the outlook on the airline industry.
The airline industry is one of the most crucial industries to the global markets and supply chains. It did suffer quite significantly over the last 4 to 5 years mainly due to the pandemic. However, in 2024, the airline industry is projected to achieve operating profits of more than $49 billion, which is supported by strong demand and pricing power, according to a PwC report from January.
Passenger numbers are rebounding to almost pre-COVID levels, although full recovery of lost growth may take longer. However, there are still a few challenges that the industry needs to overcome, including supply chain and production quality issues, which are expected to continue impacting aircraft deliveries throughout the year.
Trends in Advancement of the Airline Industry
According to PwC, generative AI is set to change the industry by improving efficiency and customer service. Additionally, 2024 is an important year for increasing the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), with goals to reach 5-10% SAF by 2030. However, large investments are necessary to create the needed infrastructure.
We also discussed the role of AI in the industry in our article 11 Worst Aviation Stocks to Buy According to Analysts. Here is an excerpt from the article:
“Like most industries of today, airlines are also implementing AI to improve the efficiency of their operations. According to an August report by CNBC, these companies are using AI for tasks like ground control, customer service, and optimizing flight routes.
American Airlines introduced its AI-powered “smart gating” system at its Dallas-Fort Worth control center. The tool automatically assigns gates to incoming flights, which cut runway taxi time by around 20%, or two minutes per flight, across five airports. The system also helps passengers, baggage, and crews make quicker connections, which improves overall efficiency.
Alaska is using AI to streamline flight paths and optimize aircraft turnaround times at gates. Its tool is described as “Waze for the skies,” and it uses AI to plan faster routes, which saves fuel and reduces delays. Additionally, the system monitors ground operations as it tracks when fuel, catering, and baggage trucks arrive and depart, which allows agents to address delays immediately.
United has implemented generative AI for customer service, especially during flight disruptions. The AI generates detailed, empathetic messages explaining delays, which has increased customer satisfaction by 4% since its rollout on 6,000 flights.”
North America Leading the Way
According to a KPMG report posted in January, the North American airline market has been the primary driver of global traffic growth and profitability, accounting for 56% of the IATA’s industry profit forecast for 2024. The region quickly recovered from the pandemic and achieved profitability in 2022, with transatlantic travel rebounding in the summer of 2023.
While low-cost carriers (LCCs) initially benefited from early domestic recovery, premium international travel demand has surged which favors the bigger airlines. The major carriers have seen strong demand for their premium services, which are driven by both leisure and business travelers. On the other hand, LCCs like Spirit and JetBlue have faced challenges, including softer demand, higher fuel and labor costs, and capacity constraints due to engine issues.
In June, IATA increased its profit forecast for global airlines in 2024 and now expects a net profit of $30.5 billion, which is higher than both the $27.4 billion expected in 2023 and the earlier 2024 forecast of $25.7 billion.
Some major expectations for 2024 include record revenue of $996 billion and 4.96 billion passengers, but ongoing supply chain issues are limiting aircraft deliveries. Cargo revenues are also declining from their pandemic highs but remain above 2019 levels.
IATA also highlighted the need for supply chain improvements and favorable public policy to support industry profitability and investments in sustainability.
With that, we look at the 10 Worst Airline Stocks According to Short Sellers.
10 Worst Airline Stocks To Buy According to Short Sellers
Our Methodology
To select the 10 worst airline stocks according to short sellers, we used a Finviz stock screener to identify over 20 airline stocks. Next, we narrowed our list to 10 stocks with the highest short interest but were also the most popular among elite hedge funds, as of Q2 2024. Finally, these stocks were ranked in ascending order of their short interest.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10 Worst Airline Stocks According to Short Sellers
10. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 4.76%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 51
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) is a major provider of scheduled air transportation, serving both passengers and cargo across the globe. With a remarkable operational scale, the airline conducts around 4,000 daily flights to more than 280 destinations on six continents.
The airline has established significant hubs in important markets, including Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles, and London, among others. In 2023, the company successfully served over 190 million customers, which shows its extensive reach and popularity in the airline industry.
Despite its strong position, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) faced challenges in recent months due to a software update that caused a crash in Microsoft operating systems. The disruption led to extensive flight delays and cancellations, with the airline canceling over 5,000 flights between July 19 and July 25. The incident not only affected customer satisfaction but also resulted in an estimated financial loss of around $500 million, as noted by CEO Ed Bastian. It ranks 10th on our list of the worst airline stocks according to short sellers.
For the second quarter, the airline reported earnings of $2.36 per share on revenue of $16.7 billion, slightly below expectations of $2.37 per share and $15.5 billion in revenue.
Year-over-year, net income declined by 30%, but the airline generated $2.7 billion in free cash flow during the first half of the year, which was evidence of its ability to maintain liquidity and financial health amid challenges.
The company is placing an increasing emphasis on premium travelers and expects that revenue from this segment will grow faster than that from economy travel. The shift includes a focus on its “loyalty and other” revenue streams, which now account for 56% of total revenue.
Premium revenue saw a 10% increase in the quarter compared to the previous year. Loyalty revenue rose by 8%, fueled by growth in co-brand spending and a greater mix of premium credit card usage.
Moreover, the airline’s SkyMiles loyalty program and its partnership with American Express offer significant potential for future revenue growth. In Q2, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) received $1.9 billion from American Express, marking a 9% increase from the previous year. The ongoing investment in premium services and loyalty programs positions the company favorably to capture more high-value customers and diversify its revenue sources.
Oakmark Fund stated the following regarding Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) is a leading global airline. Of the big three U.S.-based airlines (Delta, United and American), we see Delta as the most competitively advantaged. We believe the company’s years of industry-leading operational performance and investments in the customer experience have established Delta as the premium brand in the industry. We also think its geographically optimal hubs, high local market share, robust loyalty program and unique corporate culture all support healthy returns on capital. Delta currently trades at 6x our estimate of normalized earnings per share. We believe this is an attractive valuation for a competitively advantaged and growing business in an out-of-favor industry.”
9. Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE:CPA)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 5.42%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 24
Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE:CPA) operates airline passenger and cargo services primarily through its subsidiaries, Copa Airlines and AeroRepública. Copa Airlines benefits from its strategic hub in Panama, which offers a broad network of flights across North, Central, and South America, as well as the Caribbean. AeroRepública runs a low-cost airline model called Wingo, that serves Colombia and several cities in the surrounding region.
Recently, the company added its first Boeing 737 MAX 8 to its fleet, bringing the total number of aircraft to 110, which includes 76 Boeing 737-Next Generation aircraft, 29 Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft, and one Boeing 737-800 BCF (Boeing Converted Freighter).
At a stake value of $325.405 million, 24 hedge funds held positions in Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA) in the second quarter. As of June 30, Renaissance Technologies is the top shareholder in the company and has a position worth $82.99 million.
For the second quarter, Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA) reported a net profit of $120.3 million, which showed strong financial performance. The operating income reached $159.5 million, with a margin of 19.5%, marking some of the best results in the company’s history.
Management attributed the success to the company’s effective management of low ex-fuel unit costs and sustained demand for air travel in the region. However, it is worth noting that passenger yields fell to 12.1 cents, an 8.7% decrease from the previous year. The decline was largely due to a revision in the unredeemed ticket revenue provision for tickets sold in 2024, which also contributed to a 7.9% drop in passenger revenues per available seat mile (PRASM).
While Copa Holdings (NYSE:CPA) has seen some challenges and is among our list of the worst airline stocks according to hedge funds, analysts are bullish on it. The stock has a consensus Buy rating among 15 analysts. As of September 20, the average price target of $150 represents an upside of 63.88% from the present levels.
8. Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 5.48%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 14
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATSG) is an Ohio-based prominent provider of aircraft leasing and air cargo services, both domestically and internationally. With a fleet that includes converted freighter models such as the Boeing 767 and Airbus A321, it has established itself as a key player in the freighter leasing market.
The company operates through two main segments, Cargo Aircraft Management Inc. and ACMI Services. In addition to leasing aircraft, the company offers flight crews, insurance, and maintenance services, and even conducts aircraft conversions from passenger to freighter configurations. Its diverse client base includes delivery companies, freight forwarders, airlines, and government entities.
Air Transport Services (NASDAQ:ATSG) has faced challenges in recent months. In its second quarter, the company reported revenues of $488 million, a decline from $529 million in the same period last year. The drop in demand for air cargo services can be attributed to broader economic uncertainties and geopolitical issues, including ongoing conflicts like the situation in the Middle East. As a result, aircraft leasing and related revenues fell by 7%, despite the addition of fourteen new freighter leases during the quarter.
It is among the worst airline stocks according to short sellers. The ACMI Services segment reported a pretax loss of $7 million in the second quarter, a significant turnaround from the $24 million in earnings recorded a year prior. Additionally, ACMI Services faced rising expenses related to crew training, maintenance, and ground service rates, which compounded the challenges in this segment.
Despite these hurdles, analysts see potential in the company’s outlook. On August 12, Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli raised the price target for Air Transport Services (NASDAQ:ATSG) from $14 to $15 and maintained a Hold rating.
The analyst mentioned that while the second quarter’s revenue fell short of expectations, the company exceeded its EBITDA and earnings per share estimates. The outlook for 2024 has also been adjusted positively, with expectations for approximately $526 million in adjusted EBITDA, which is a sign of an increase driven by recent aircraft leases and anticipated pricing improvements in the fourth quarter.
CEO Mike Berger expressed confidence that the company is on track to meet its revised goals, with an expectation for seasonal charter opportunities to enhance the performance of the ACMI Services segment. In the first half of the year, Air Transport Services (NASDAQ:ATSG) generated $107 million in positive free cash flow, and management anticipates further additions in the second half.
7. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 6.54%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 16
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) is an American ultra-low-cost carrier headquartered in Colorado. It operates flights to over 120 destinations in the U.S., Caribbean, Mexico, and Central America. It is a subsidiary of Indigo Partners, LLC, which is a private equity firm that focuses on transforming airlines into low-cost carriers.
Frontier Group (NASDAQ:ULCC) mostly caters to price-sensitive travelers, as it offers low-cost air travel across North America while maintaining a strategic focus on underserved airports and secondary markets. Its business model relies on low fares, ancillary fees for optional services, and a streamlined operation that maximizes efficiency.
Analysts are showing mixed views on the company’s stock. On September 16, TD Cowen increased Frontier Group’s (NASDAQ:ULCC) price target from $3 to $4 with a Hold rating, as reported by The Fly. The update came after the company increased its financial outlook for the third quarter of 2024. According to the firm, the airline’s leaders sounded confident and excited about the future, especially looking ahead to 2025.
On the same day, Citi analyst Stephen Trent increased the company’s price target from $3.50 to $4.70 but maintained a Neutral rating. The firm noted that the airline is showing progress in improving its revenue mix and stabilizing earnings. However, despite potential short-term stock support from U.S. interest rate cuts, the airline’s high financial leverage and cash burn do not align well with its earnings improvements. Additionally, its shares remain highly volatile, even compared to other U.S. airlines.
In Q2, 16 hedge funds had investments in Frontier Group (NASDAQ:ULCC), with positions worth $214.551 million. Wildcat Capital Management is the most dominant shareholder in the company as of Q2 and has a stake worth $138.342 million.
6. Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 7.14%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 30
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) is a Washington-based company that operates a diverse network of airlines through its subsidiaries. It runs through three main segments, Mainline, Regional, and Horizon.
The company provides air transportation services primarily using Boeing jets and serves passengers and cargo across the U.S. and extending to various destinations in Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas.
The company has faced significant challenges recently, especially following the incident involving Flight 1282 in January. A mechanical failure caused by a missing bolt on a door plug resulted in a serious issue for one of its new Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft, which led to operational disruptions and increased costs.
CEO Ben Minicucci has acknowledged improvements at Boeing but commented that the anticipated delivery of the 737 MAX 10 jets has been pushed back to mid-2026. The delay adds to the uncertainty regarding fleet expansion and modernization, which are critical for maintaining competitive advantage. It ranks 6th on our list of the worst airline stocks according to short sellers.
Labor relations have also presented hurdles for Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK). In February, flight attendants at the airline voted to authorize a strike mandate for the first time in thirty years.
According to the Association of Flight Attendants, the strike was a reflection of widespread demands from labor unions for increased wages, which coincided with ongoing contract negotiations for many U.S. cabin crew.
In August, a proposed three-year labor agreement, which included a 32% average pay increase and new provisions for boarding pay, was rejected by the flight attendants. The developments highlight the ongoing push for better compensation and working conditions across the airline industry, adding pressure to the company’s operational stability and financial performance.
On a more positive note, Alaska Air (NYSE:ALK) has made significant strides in expanding its market presence through strategic acquisitions. Recently, the company finalized a $1.9 billion purchase of Hawaiian Airlines after securing necessary approvals from the U.S. Department of Transportation.
The acquisition is expected to improve competition and benefit consumers by broadening access to both airlines’ networks. CEO Minicucci emphasized the potential for at least $235 million in annual synergies by the third year following the merger, which could strengthen the company’s financial outlook and operational efficiency. Additionally, the agreement includes commitments to maintain essential routes and uphold consumer protections, which will further enhance its appeal to travelers.
5. Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 8.72%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 23
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) operates as a major low-cost carrier in the U.S. with service to nearly 120 destinations domestically and 10 international countries including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. It uses a point-to-point network and operates a fleet exclusively of Boeing 737 aircraft, making it the largest operator of this model.
The company is known for its customer-friendly policies, such as allowing two free checked bags and no fees for flight changes, as well as its unique boarding process. The airline’s frequent flyer program, Rapid Rewards, uses a points-based system and offers flexible redemption options without blackout dates.
On September 20, TipRanks reported that Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu reaffirmed a Sell rating on Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), with a $20 price target, as the analyst highlighted some operational and financial challenges. Some of the analyst’s major concerns include a lower passenger load compared to 2019 and lower revenue per seat mile, compared to its network competitors. The shift to larger aircraft has raised non-fuel costs, leading to an 80% reduction in 2024 earnings estimates.
The analyst said that even though the company is introducing changes like more legroom and overnight flights, these may not offset revenue losses from its EarlyBird seating program. The airline’s cost-cutting efforts are not fully realized yet, and adjustments in aircraft orders pose further financial risks.
Despite challenges faced by Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), its stock was held by 23 hedge funds in the second quarter and the stakes amounted to $429.489 million. Elliott Management is the biggest shareholder of the company and has a position worth $171,660 million, as of June 30.
4. Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 9.52%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 13
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) is an air carrier company that has been navigating the complex landscape of air travel with a business model that emphasizes both passenger services and cargo operations.
Operating primarily in the U.S. and expanding into Latin America, the company has a fleet of 43 passenger aircraft and 12 freighters, supporting a network of nearly 107 routes across 107 airports. It caters to various markets, including leisure travelers, cargo clients, and military services.
Sun Country (NASDAQ:SNCY) is one of the worst airline stocks according to short sellers. The airline is currently facing challenges, particularly due to overcapacity in the domestic market, which has placed pressure on unit revenues.
In the second quarter, it reported a total revenue of $254 million, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the same period in 2023. The fare per scheduled passenger fell by 20.1%, which is evidence of the tough pricing environment.
Despite the headwinds, the company has managed to maintain its focus on cost control, with total operating expenses growing at a slower pace than its total block hours. The effort has contributed to a decline in adjusted cost per available seat mile (CASM) by 4.9% year over year.
Additionally, Sun Country (NASDAQ:SNCY) has reason for optimism, as it has posted eight consecutive profitable quarters, with a GAAP earnings per share of $0.03 and an adjusted EPS of $0.06 in Q2.
CEO Jude Bricker attributed the success to the company’s unique and diversified revenue model, which stands in contrast to many of its low-cost competitors during these challenging times.
A significant development in this regard is the recent amendment to its agreement with Amazon, which extends its partnership through 2030 and introduces the operation of up to eight additional Boeing 737-800 cargo aircraft by early 2025. The expansion could increase Sun Country’s (NASDAQ:SNCY) cargo fleet from 12 to as many as 20 freighters, which can provide a substantial boost to its revenue streams.
3. Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 10.77%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 17
Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) is a major U.S. airline, headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada. It is known for its ultra-low-cost business model. The airline focuses on serving underserved leisure markets and connects smaller and medium-sized cities to popular vacation destinations. The company uses a fee-based revenue structure, according to which it keeps base fares low while offering several add-on services such as seat selection, baggage handling, and food purchases.
Allegiant Travel’s (NASDAQ:ALGT) ancillary revenue is one of the most attractive features of its business model, which includes fees for services beyond just the ticket price. The approach has helped the airline maintain profitability while keeping base fares competitive. It also partners with hotels, car rental services, and tourist attractions and offers bundled travel packages.
On September 20, Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT) raised it Q3 outlook based on its August performance. Chief Commercial Officer Drew Wells reported stronger-than-expected demand and unit revenue for late September, with third-quarter unit revenues showing a 5.5% year-over-year decline, an improvement from the earlier forecast of a 7.5% decline.
The company’s CFO, Robert Neal said that non-fuel unit costs for Q3 increase is expected to be 4.5%, which is 2.5% lower than expected. Fuel costs for the quarter are expected to average $2.70 per gallon, down from $2.80.
Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT) expects its August capacity to be up around 1.8%, compared to previous forecasts of 1.3%. In August, the company updated Q3 guidance, which shows a 1.8% year-over-year rise in system available seat miles (ASMs), with scheduled service ASMs up 1.6%. The company anticipates an operating margin between -0.5% and -1.5%, and EPS excluding special charges, is projected to range between -$0.75 and -$1.25, compared to the previously forecasted range of -$1.50 to -$2.50.
However, even with a positive outlook, some analysts remain bearish on Allegiant Travel’s (NASDAQ:ALGT) stock. On September 21, TipRanks reported that Bank of America Securities analyst Andrew Didora reiterated a Sell rating on the company with a $40 price target. Despite its positive update on third-quarter guidance, including better-than-expected revenue and cost control, the analyst remains skeptical.
The analyst stated concerns over its unique route network, high expenses from new pilot agreements, and the costly Sunseeker project. Despite lower fuel costs, the company’s financial challenges and high debt levels contribute to his bearish outlook.
In Q3, 17 hedge funds had stakes worth $111.800 million in Allegiant Travel (NASDAQ:ALGT). With 945,839 shares worth $47.51 million, Diamond Hill Capital is the company’s largest shareholder as of Q2.
2. American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 14.78%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 38
American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL), formed from the merger of American Airlines and US Airways in December 2013, is a major player in the airline industry. With a fleet of around 1,000 aircraft, the airline operates approximately 6,700 flights daily to nearly 350 destinations across more than 50 countries.
It has a strong network with hubs in key cities including Charlotte, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Miami, which positions it well to cater to both domestic and international travelers. It is among the worst airline stocks according to short sellers.
In the second quarter, the airline reported record revenues of $14 billion, a modest year-over-year increase of 2%. However, the achievement was tempered by a significant 46% drop in net income, which amounted to $717 million, or $1.01 per share. The difference between the two is a sign of the challenges the company faces in maintaining profitability amid rising operational costs, even as demand continues to grow.
To enhance its revenue outlook, American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) has implemented a series of measures, yet the continuing effects of its past sales and distribution strategies are expected to keep influencing its performance negatively throughout the year.
As a result, the airline forecasts its adjusted earnings per diluted share for the third quarter of 2024 to be around breakeven. For the entire year, the expected adjusted earnings range from $0.70 to $1.30 per share, which is an indication of a cautious but hopeful approach to navigating the current economic landscape.
Additionally, American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) is actively working to strengthen its balance sheet. During the second quarter, the company successfully reduced its total debt by approximately $680 million, progressing towards its ambitious goal of cutting total debt by $15 billion by the end of 2025.
Currently, it has managed to achieve over $13 billion, or about 87%, of that target. The company also reported a strong liquidity position, ending the quarter with roughly $11.7 billion in total available liquidity, which includes cash, short-term investments, and undrawn credit facilities.
1. JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU)
Short Interest as % of Shares Outstanding: 19.92%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 19
JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU) is a well-known U.S. airline and has a fleet of Airbus, along with a few others.
It has developed into a significant operator in the airline industry, operating over 1,000 flights daily to more than 100 destinations across North America, the Caribbean, and Europe.
One of the important aspects that set the company apart from its competitors is its commitment to customer satisfaction, which includes offering amenities like in-flight entertainment and comfortable seating while maintaining a low-cost fare structure.
While it is a known airline operator, JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) faced challenges in the second quarter. The company reported a 2.7% decrease in system capacity compared to the previous year, which contributed to an operating revenue drop to $2.4 billion, marking a 6.9% decline. It tops our list of the worst airline stocks according to short sellers.
Ursula Hurley, the CFO, noted that various factors impacted the company’s unit costs, including changes in compensation recognition from Pratt & Whitney and lower-than-expected capacity. However, Hurley expressed optimism about the second half of the year, emphasizing the company’s commitment to cost management and the introduction of the JetForward cost transformation program.
On September 6, TD Cowen raised the price target on JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) to $6 from $5 and kept a Hold rating. The revision is owed to a more positive outlook based on the company’s guidance, which suggests improved revenue potential and anticipated cost relief stemming from favorable jet fuel prices and effective management of non-fuel expenses.
In Q2, 19 hedge funds held stakes in JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU), with positions worth $156.894 million. As of the second quarter, Icahn Capital LP is the most significant shareholder in the company and has a position worth $107.957 million.
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