Our list of the 10 states with the lowest number of physicians per capita, might give you some insight into the states that will be affected the most by the projected total physician shortfall of between 40,800 and 104,900 physicians by 2030.
To explain the projected shortfall we have to know a little bit about the US population growth history. The period from 1946 until 1964 is so-called “baby boom” period, during which the US experienced a dramatic increase in birth rates, and according to the US Census Bureau in 2012, there were 76.4 million people living in the US that were born during the baby boom period. This very large population is getting old, and it is projected that it will double the number of older Americans by 2040. Older people need more medical care, and not only that – there is definitely a lot of doctors from that population that will retire. However, that is not the only reason for the projected shortfall. The main problem is that there is not enough federally supported residency training positions for MDs. Or, as the Association of American Medical Colleges explains it: “Without raising the federally imposed cap on support for graduate medical education (GME) and expanding training capacity, the increase in medical school graduates will do little to help the growing demand for physician services.“
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You might be wondering what is the ideal ratio of physicians per 100,000 people? Well, the truth is that there is no right answer to that question. The number of necessary physicians depends on many factors that vary from community to community. For example, if a community has a larger percentage of older people it will need more doctors, as we already mentioned in the explanation of the projected shortfall. Other factors such as the percentage of physically inactive people, obesity rate, hypertension rate, diabetes rate, all contribute to the increased number of necessary doctors. World health organization determined, that absolute minimum of medical staff needed to deliver essential maternal and child health services is 23 doctors, nurses and midwives per 10,000 population, but this number is targeting low-income countries and only a part of the health care system.
The state with the highest number of doctors per 100,000 people has more than 2.3 times the doctors than the state with the lowest number of doctors, and contributing factors to this situation are median household income, and percentage of people without health insurance, it is quite simple – physicians move to the states where they will have a bigger paycheck.
If you’d like to know what types of physician specialties have the longest annual work hours, check out our article 10 Doctors and Specialists Who Work the Longest Hours.
We are ranking the states by the number of active physicians per 100,000 population, and in order to paint a clearer picture of the “health status” of each state we will also provide student enrollment data, and number of residents and fellows in ACGME-accredited training programs using data for the year 2014 as provided by the Association of American Medical Colleges(AAMC). In addition to that we include interesting statistics from StateOfObesity and United States Census Bureau, while life expectancy at birth was taken from the Measure of America. From now on we will use per capita as meaning per 100,000 population, and we begin our list of 10 states with the lowest number of physicians per capita.
10. Texas
213.3 active physicians per capita
Student enrollment per capita of 27.6 could be better, but the number of residents and fellows in ACGME-accredited programs of 29.1 per capita is somewhat encouraging. What is very unsettling is the percent of the population without health insurance – 19.1, the highest of all states. Physical inactivity rate of 29.5 percent and obesity rate of 32.4 percent put Texas among the ten worst states in both categories. And n0w, let’s see what else we have in our list of states with the lowest number of physicians per capita.
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9. Iowa
211 active physicians per capita
Iowa easily gets into top ten states with the highest student enrollment per capita of 49.7. Knowing just that you would not expect to see it on our list of the 10 states with the lowest number of physicians per capita, however number of residents and fellows in ACGME programs per capita of 27.1 is lower than the state median of 27.3, and much lower when compared to the number of students. Percent of the population without health insurance of 6.2 is really low, which is one of Iowa’s redeeming qualities.
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8. Utah
207.5 active physicians per capita
Up next in our list of states with the lowest number of physicians per capita is Utah that suffers from a low number of students enrolled per capita of 13.5, due to having only one medical school. Rocky Vista University should open up a new campus in Ivins in 2017, which should help alleviate the problem.
Number of residents and fellows in ACGME per capita 24.8 could be better, but obesity rate of 24.5 percent actually puts Utah among 10 least obese states, and hypertension rate of 23.6 percent is the lowest of all states, physical inactivity rate of 20.3 percent is also among the lowest and diabetes rate of 7 percent is the second lowest rate. With life expectancy at birth of 80.2 years, percent of the population without health insurance of 12.5 seems unexpectedly high.
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7. Alabama
206 active physicians per capita
Student enrollment per capita of 28.9, and number of fellows and residents in ACGME programs per capita of 27.8 are not ideal but Alabama’s got real problems. Being the state with the second highest obesity rate of 35.6 percent, and add to that hypertension rate of whopping 40.4 percent, the third highest diabetes rate of 13.5 percent, physical inactivity rate of 31.9 percent and you’ve got a bleak picture of that state’s health. Life expectancy at birth of 75.4 years seems somewhat optimistic.
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6. Oklahoma
201.8 active physicians per capita
With student enrollment per capita of 28.5 which is below the state median of 30.3 and low number of people in accreditation programs of 19.8 per capita, combined with obesity rate of 33.9 percent, hypertension rate of 36.2 percent, diabetes rate of 11.7%, and the third worst physical inactivity rate of 33.2% things are worrisome. Oklahoma ranks 6th in our list of states with the lowest number of physicians per capita, and it is the fifth worst state when it comes to the percent of the population without health insurance – 15.4 percent. Life expectancy at birth in Oklahoma is 75.9 years.
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5. Arkansas
198.1 active physicians per capita
Arkansas ranks 5th in our list of states with the lowest number of physicians per capita. It has a low number of students per capita of 23.3, and compared to that somewhat better number of people in ACGME programs of 25.2 per capita. What is striking is its second worst physical inactivity rate of 34.2 percent, along with obesity rate of 34.5 percent (sixth worst), hypertension rate of 39.3 percent, and diabetes rate of 12.6 percent which is seventh worst.
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4. Nevada
197.4 active physicians per capita
Student enrollment per capita of 28.7, could be better but the real problem is the percent of the population without health insurance – of 15.2 percent which probably contributes to small number of residents and fellows in ACGME programs of 12 per capita. Hypertension rate of 28.3 percent is among the 5 lowest, and life expectancy at birth is 78.1 years.
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3. Wyoming
196.7 active physicians per capita
Out of five states that have no medical school, only two got on our list – Wyoming being one of the two, therefore student enrollment per 100,000 population of 0 is not surprising. With just 7.2 residents and fellows in ACGME-accredited programs per capita, Wyoming is the third worst state in this regard. While obesity rate of 29.1 percent, hypertension rate of 29.9 percent, and physical inactivity rate of 26.2 percent are not especially bad when compared to state median, they aren’t good either. Diabetes Rate of 8.4 percent is among the ten lowest. Percent of the population without health insurance is 12, and life expectancy at birth 78.3 years is relatively good.
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2. Idaho
189.6 active physicians per capita
Idaho is the second state on our list of states with the lowest number of physicians per capita without a medical school. Amount of residents and fellows in ACGME programs is the third worst at just 6.4 per capita. Physical inactivity rate of 21.2 percent, and diabetes rate of 8.1 percent are among the lowest, but percent of the population without health insurance – 13.6 is eleventh worst. Life expectancy at birth is 79.5 years, and when compared to the shortage of doctors this state is holding up pretty good.
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1. Mississippi
184.7 active physicians per capita
Student enrollment per 100,000 population of 32.8, is really not bad for Mississippi but the number of residents and fellows in ACGME of 18.6 per 100,000 is. With obesity rate of 35.6 percent it is the second worst state, hypertension rate of 42.4 percent gives it the same rank as for obesity. Mississippi is the state with the highest percentage of physically inactive people of 36.8 percent, it is also the state with highest diabetes rate of 14.7 percent, when we combine this with percent of population without health insurance – 14.5, we are not really surprised that life expectancy at birth for Mississippi is 75 years – the lowest of all states. We finish our list of 10 states with the lowest number of physicians per capita, with the state that can probably carry the title of the unhealthiest state.
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