Many mega-cap stocks have started 2025 with a bang and we’ll be taking a closer look into each of them to learn why they’ve performed so well already.
If you skim the trends in the past two years, it should be clear that it’s worthwhile to look into mega-cap stocks that have gained a lot already. Investors who defied the conventional wisdom and doubled down on the mega-cap stocks last year have outperformed the benchmark index by a wide margin.
We used a stock screener and sorted public companies — those tagged by the screener as trading in the U.S. — with a market capitalization above $100 billion by their year-to-date (YTD) gains.
Will lightning strike again this year and take these stocks even higher by the end of 2025? It’s not rational to paint all these companies with the same brush, so let’s dive into the nitty gritty of each mega-cap stock in this list.
A close-up view of a computer motherboard with integrated semiconductor chips.
1. Micron Technology (MU)
- YTD Total Return: 16.15%
It shouldn’t be a big surprise that the first stock in this list is a semiconductor company. Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) makes memory and storage semiconductors. MU stock is mostly on this list because of a recovery.
This stock has been trading around the $100 (±$15) level since October 2024. It started declining in mid-December and ended the year at $84.16. That’s because management’s fiscal second-quarter forecast fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.
However, expectations improved markedly around AI spending and the long-term potential of Micron Technology (MU) here. Analysts point to the company’s investments in cutting-edge DRAM and NAND solutions as reasons that MU stock quickly recaptured ground in early 2025. In other words, while Micron’s near-term performance faced headwinds from consumer electronics softness and a mismatch in memory chip supply and demand, the bigger AI-driven picture appears to have injected fresh confidence. The result is a share price that consolidated in the $90 to $105 corridor through January.
2. Arm Holdings (ARM)
- YTD Total Return: 13.11%
Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) is another semiconductor company; not much of a surprise. Semiconductor firms dominated the charts last year as well. ARM stock has doubled its stock price in just the past year. This is mostly because they’ve had very strong quarter-over-quarter growth and bullish revenue forecasts.
Arm Holdings (ARM) has also pivoted into high-value areas like AI and data centers, and these have made it into a hot mega-cap performer this year. The licensing business has bought in robust royalty stream and Wall Street is bullish that Arm can continue double-digit growth over the coming quarters.
For the full fiscal year 2025 (ending March 31, 2025), Arm Holdings (ARM) reaffirmed revenue guidance of $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, with adjusted EPS projected between $1.45 and $1.65. The company guided for some sequential moderation in certain quarters — particularly for licensing revenue — Wall Street largely interprets the annual view as a sign of at least 20% top-line growth for the year. Some sell-side estimates see Arm maintaining a 20%+ annual revenue growth rate well into fiscal 2026 and 2027.
3. Christian Dior (CHDRY)
- YTD Total Return: 8.13%
Christian Dior (OTCMKTS:CHDRY) is a multinational luxury goods company that controls 42% of LVMH. CHDRY hasn’t delivered any meaningful returns in the years following 2021, and you’ll likely only find this stock being discussed in a list of rebound opportunities.
Regardless, the YTD returns here are just as underwhelming when you zoom out: CHDRY stock is still down 8.7% in the past year.
The financials have actually declined a little in the most recent quarter, and in the coming years, you’re unlikely to see meaningful growth. I’d just buy LVMH instead.
4. Uber Technologies (UBER)
- YTD Total Return: 8.06%
Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) has been a rollercoaster ride in the post-pandemic era. It ended 2024 down 2% due to a decline that started in October. The small recovery since then is mainly the reason why it is on this list.
This recovery is due to the announcement of a $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase program. Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) has also partnered with Nvidia to use AI-based simulation to develop autonomous driving technology faster. The partnership with Nvidia also sparked a short-term uptick.
Analysts remain broadly optimistic now. Wolfe Research recently raised Uber’s price target to $92, pointing to “pivotal product growth dynamics” in 2025. Others see an even bigger runway: “The analysts’ sentiment trends are positive, indicating a 40% rise in Uber shares over the next year,” wrote MarketBeat contributor Thomas Hughes, who attributes the bullish view to Uber’s ability to drive “accelerating earnings growth and FCF.”
Several major brokerages — including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs — have also added the stock to their high-conviction growth lists for 2025.
5. Boston Scientific (BSX)
- YTD Total Return: 7.58%
Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) makes medical devices. One of their most notable achievements was the development of a special device used to open clogged arteries in the heart called “Taxus Stent.”
I’m broadly bullish on most big-cap medical companies in the long run due to demographic trends, and that bullishness extends here, though I do think you should be careful in the near term as BSX has been trading at nosebleed levels. The stock is up 59% in just the past year and trades at 39 times forward earnings.
Recently, Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX) announced an agreement to fully acquire Bolt Medical, which develops a laser-based technology known as intravascular lithotripsy (IVL). This technology helps break up calcium deposits in arteries and restore healthy blood flow. The deal is valued at up to $664 million (including milestone payments) and is expected to be finalized in the first half of 2025.
On the financial side, the company reported strong third-quarter 2024 results, with net sales of $4.209 billion — a 19.4% increase year-over-year on a reported basis — driven by sales growth in both its MedSurg and Cardiovascular segments.
6. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (SNPMF)
- YTD Total Return: 7.39%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, or Sinopec, (OTCMKTS:SNPMF) is the only Chinese company on this list. That said, you should be able to buy the stock in the U.S. through major brokerage firms.
SNPMF stock is still down 45% from its peak all the way back in 2014. It started bottoming out in 2020 and has been in a pretty stagnant long-term trajectory since then with some ups and downs. The reason it is up so much YTD is also because of a recovery from its decline from July to November last year.
Sinopec’s fate is linked almost entirely to China’s macroeconomics. The Chinese stock market has been lagging behind those in the West. Companies in China increased their production capabilities in the COVID stimulus era but by the time they were done with it, they’d been faced with lower export orders and a domestic population that hadn’t generated much demand either. Not only that, the Chinese government has also been conservative with stimulus. We’ve seen some stimulus efforts recently, but they are nowhere near what is needed to cause a sustained rebound in Chinese markets.
7. UBS Group (UBS)
- YTD Total Return: 7.32%
UBS Group (NYSE:UBS) is a Swiss financial services company. It is the world’s largest wealth manager. The stock has been among the best mega-cap performers in the post-pandemic era and has consistently delivered returns.
The Credit Suisse acquisition has played out much better than expected for the company. UBS Group (NYSE:UBS) managed to achieve $6 billion in annualized cost savings by mid-2024 and that number should be $7 billion by the end of 2024. That’s over half of its $13 billion target by 2026 and we’re looking at profitability booming as Credit Suisse has mostly been stabilized. Q3 net profit reached $1.425 billion.
According to SimplyWall.St, UBS’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecast to expand by around 27.6% per year, with revenue projected to grow by roughly 1–2% on average over the next three years.
8. ASML Holding (ASML)
- YTD Total Return: 7.27%
In plain terms, ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) builds the machines that chip manufacturers, like Intel or TSMC, need to “print” tiny circuitry patterns onto silicon wafers. ASML is also on this list due to a recovery. The stock lost almost 40% of its value in its selloff from July to November and has slowly started to recover since then.
The company reported its third-quarter 2024 results with net sales of €7.5 billion and net income of €2.1 billion. ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) also revised its longer-term outlook for 2025, saying it expects total net sales that year to land between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 53%. That guidance is a bit on the cautious side compared to what some investors had in mind, and the stock price took a notable hit when the news broke, hence the selloff lasted well into November.
However, you can see that ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) is still doing quite well overall, even if short-term external factors have nudged them to lower some forecasts. Management remains optimistic about the future thanks to strong demand for advanced chip-making tools like extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and even higher-end “High NA” EUV systems. Bookings did decline (to €2.6 billion from €5.6 billion the quarter before), which some executives attributed partly to customers delaying orders due to caution about the economic environment. That said, ASML’s sales, profit margins, and cash flows have all trended upward over the years. It’s the only manufacturer of the most advanced lithography machines that today’s (and tomorrow’s) chips need.
Obviously, there’s been some near-term caution in the market, and the company’s own guidance acknowledges a slower-than-hoped recovery. But at the same time, analysts see plenty of reason to stay bullish given ASML’s underlying dominance of its niche. If you want cutting-edge chips, you basically need ASML somewhere in the picture. So, I think those YTD returns could end up fattening up in the coming months.
9. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO)
- YTD Total Return: 6.21%
If you’ve ever benefited from a diagnostic test at a hospital, or taken medicine for a serious condition, there’s a good chance Thermo Fisher (NYSE:TMO) had a hand in making it possible.
Thermo Fisher (NYSE:TMO)’s recent quarters have revealed steady (though not always spectacular) top-line results. In their third quarter of 2024, they reported around $10.6 billion in revenue — virtually flat over the previous year — and an adjusted EPS of $5.28. The company still projects its annual revenue to land between $42.4 billion and $43.3 billion, with adjusted EPS in the neighborhood of $21.35 to $22.07 for 2024.
On the stock market side, Thermo Fisher (NYSE:TMO) had hovered in the low-to-mid-$500s in early January 2025. In my view, that reticence is pretty standard for a large-cap science services provider when overall biotech and pharmaceutical markets are a bit unpredictable. But the fact that the company is still holding quarterly earnings calls with stable guidance and regularly issuing dividends signals that top management feels comfortable with Thermo Fisher’s cash flow.
Regardless, TMO makes the list due to a recent recovery from a selloff that started after its Q3 report. The stock has mostly traded sideways since 2021 and I see no reason to believe that it will deliver spectacular returns this year.
10. Chevron (CVX)
- YTD Total Return: 5.98%
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has been trading around $135 to $180 since 2022 and hasn’t broken above or below that range in a while. CVX trading up and down that band is why it is on this list. The stock declined in December but started to recover at the end of the month. As I said with Sinopec, I believe Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is also linked to macroeconomic factors, and whether or not the stock does good depends a lot on whether or not the U.S. economy stays strong and keeps oil demand strong with it.
The performance here has been mixed. They’ve come in below their prior-year earnings, mostly because of weaker margins in their refining segment and slightly lower oil and gas realizations. In the second and third quarters of 2024, Chevron still pulled in billions of dollars in profit. Plus, they flashed some eye-catching metrics like record Permian Basin production.
The key narrative, though, is that they’ve managed to keep churning out substantial free cash flow — enough to fund large shareholder returns, continue investing in high-return projects, and chip away at costs. They’ve also announced plans to cut overall capital spending next year and tighten up their portfolio by selling off certain Canadian assets for $6.5 billion.
Chevron’s hefty cash returns will likely keep it on solid footing in the near term, though the long-term case depends a lot on oil prices.
While we acknowledge the potential of CVX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CVX but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
