The stock market as a whole hasn’t had a great start to the year, but there have been some outliers. Focusing on these outliers might pay off in the long run and the statistics behind it — especially this month — are very important. The S&P 500’s calendar year performance has matched the direction of January returns approximately 77% of the time. This means when January shows positive returns, the market finishes higher in 84% of these years with an average annual return of 15.5% for the whole year.
Even if January is negative, the market ends higher some 63% of the time, but with a return of around 2.2%. I’m bringing this up because I believe this correlation can also extend to certain stocks. We’ve seen many mega-cap tech stocks perform well last year after a solid January. A lot of big-cap stocks between $50 billion to $100 billion also performed well.
Accordingly, the methodology for this article involves me screening the top 10 stocks traded in U.S. markets with a market capitalization between $50 billion to $100 billion and then sorted by year-to-date performance.
I obviously don’t have an equal level of bullishness or bearishness for all the ten stocks I’m going to discuss, so let’s discuss each of them individually.
A close-up of a financial chart jumping as the large-capitalization value sector changes.
10. Snowflake Inc (NYSE:SNOW)
- YTD Performance: 3.75%
Not the most impressive performance so far, but if you zoom out, the recent recovery is definitely worth discussing. The stock is up by 50% since September 2024. This recovery began a month after Warren Buffett gave up on the stock, though I wouldn’t be too excited about it right now.
Q3 net margin fell by almost 18% to -34.4%. Now, it is expected to be profitable for the full year and analysts expect it to recover its margins starting next year, but I believe the current price is more than generous. You’re paying 233 times forward earnings at the current price, and even if you look at next year’s estimated earnings, you’re still paying 164 times forward earnings.
As such, I don’t think that SNOW stock will end the year with stellar numbers, barring any positive catalysts where the company starts beating expectations by double-digit margins.
9. Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR)
- YTD Performance: 3.8%
Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) is an oil and gas company and the YTD performance here is thanks to a small recovery from its lackluster performance since August 2022. The stock is still down 38.6% since then.
Regardless, I do think that it is more attractive than most energy stocks at its current valuation since you’re paying less than 8 times earnings due to the dip and you can sit on a 6.9% dividend yield as it recovers. There’s a good amount of upside potential ahead, and combined with the dividends, I think it is a better deal than most other energy companies.
8. Diamondback Energy Inc (NASDAQ:FANG)
- YTD Performance: 6.5%
Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG) is another oil company on this list. I believe that no oil company is truly “special.” You’ll likely find FANG stock at a much bigger discount when the economic pendulum swings the other way and energy demand dampens.
It’s still worth looking at in the meantime, though. The top-line increase is due to a merger with Endeavor Energy Resources which immediately boosted the company’s production. In the third quarter, Diamondback generated about $1.2 billion in net cash from operating activities while holding capital expenditures to about $688 million. This gives them a fairly healthy cushion of cash flow. Plus, they repurchased roughly 2.9 million shares in the quarter and bumped up their share-repurchase authorization to $6 billion.
The dividend yield is at 4.67% right now, so it’s far from a bad deal.
7. EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG)
- YTD Performance: 8.9%
EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) is an oil and gas company. EOG stock isn’t as interesting as the YTD performance may suggest and the stock has gained some 6-ish percentage points since its high back in 2018. It then had a significant correction back to the $34-$35 level during the pandemic before recovering. The gains we’ve seen this year are also part of a smaller recovery from an earlier correction.
In my opinion, most if not all oil and gas companies — minus the midstream ones — are at the mercy of the broader economy. They will expand when the economy does and will contract significantly when the inverse occurs. We’re currently seeing solid headline figures but that also means you’re paying a premium for EOG stock. The top line here declined by 3.9% and the bottom line fell by 17.6% YOY in Q3. As such, I think it is a better idea to look into other oil stocks if you’re bullish on that sector. Here’s one with positive growth that we covered recently.
6. KLA Corp (NASDAQ:KLAC)
- YTD Performance: 10.1%
KLA Corp (NASDAQ:KLAC) is a wafer fab company and is a part of the semiconductor industry. The recent performance here is partly due to a recovery from a decline since mid-2024, but I don’t think that’s much of a con. The company’s 5-year performance has been solid, up 292%. The growth metrics here are also stellar and KLA Corp grew revenue by 18.6% in Q3 to $2.84 billion and grew its net income by 27.6% to $946 million.
That said, I do not think that the next five years are going to be as stellar. Growth is expected to be more muted around 6-10% in the coming years and the current valuation is more than generous for that sort of growth.
5. Cheniere Energy Inc (NYSE:LNG)
- YTD Performance: 10.2%
Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) is a liquefied natural gas company, as the ticker symbol suggests. This company is the largest exporter of LNG in the U.S. and the second-largest LNG producer globally. The performance here has been stellar so far and much better than the performance of many of its peers.
The company’s Q3 financials weren’t the best and revenue declined by 8.8% to $3.7 billion. However, it produced its first LNG at its Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion many months ahead of schedule. Investors find consistency and operational stability appealing. That’s especially true for a capital-intensive business like LNG exports. Even if quarterly revenues here fluctuate, the market likes that Cheniere is growing its capacity, while steadily repaying debt, and returning capital to shareholders.
Sales are expected to recover by 18% this year and the Trump Administration should bring about a much better environment for fossil fuel companies like Cheniere.
4. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR)
- YTD Performance: 14%
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) basically uses leverage to buy Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and once it appreciates, uses the expanded balance sheet to use even more leverage, and so on. The theory is that BTC will forever rise exponentially and many people see MSTR as a way to amplify BTC’s gains due to how leveraged the company is.
Bitcoin is up 3.7% year-to-date, so it is only natural that MSTR is also up. However, I do not think that this is something you should buy if you are looking for a long-term investment. MSTR has turned into a highly leveraged BTC derivative, and BTC itself is still quite speculative and can easily crash by over 50% in a bear market.
I would say that it is on a time bomb as I do not think that Bitcoin can deliver gains “exponentially.” Realistically, even a $5 trillion market capitalization could be possible but is borderline wishful thinking. If there is a true crypto winter in the coming years, the result would be disastrous for MSTR as BTC is its primary asset and keeps the debt-to-equity ratio relatively acceptable.
That said, if you’re looking to speculate and gamble with a small amount of your portfolio, MSTR is not a vehicle for that.
3. Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST)
- YTD Performance: 14%
Vistra Corp (NYSE:VST) has been on an even more bullish trajectory in the past year. It has gained 333.6% in the past year and YTD performance hasn’t disappointed either.
Vistra is a power company that generates electricity and sells it to customers in states like Texas and Illinois. The more recent buzz around it has been centered on beating expectations and boosting guidance. They beat both revenue and EPS expectations in Q3, with revenue up almost 54% year-over-year and EPS up 276.1%.
I’ve noticed plenty of bullish chatter among investors who believe nuclear and renewable expansions position the firm to ride the wave of AI-related data center demand. However, some are now worried the stock is running too hot.
Here’s what Jim Cramer said: “Right now, there are two utilities that generate a lot of nuclear power, Vistra and Constellation Energy, the latter of which just got a big contract with the feds, $1 billion, to expand a nuclear site. The big utilities are frantically trying to meet power demand generated by the data center revolution. I think these two stocks are now way ahead of themselves.“
I partially agree with Jim here. The downside risk is quite bad if things don’t turn out well, but as he himself says, there’s a huge amount of power demand. I don’t see VST stock going down too much unless we see that demand start to cool.
2. CVS Health (NYSE:CVS)
- YTD Performance: 16.6%.
CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) is a pharmacy and health insurance company. Before we talk about the gains so far this year, I would like to remind you that CVS stock has mostly been a story about woes for the past three years. The stock is still down 53% from its early 2022 highs despite the recent gains.
Regardless, I do think that CVS Health is close to making a turnaround. The company has had rough financials recently and reported softness in its Health Care Benefits segment due to higher utilization and rising costs. Annual revenues have trended up (up 6% in Q3), but the bottom line has taken a significant hit.
Cautious investors have a right to be skeptical in the short term, but a chunk of the bad news might be priced in already. Many are now waiting to see if the company’s pivot toward cost-efficiency and new leadership can produce a real rebound. If not, we could see further pressure from healthcare cost inflation. That said, I’m seeing more optimism trickling in compared to the gloom that dominated last year.
1. Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG)
- YTD Performance: 19%.
Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) is an energy and natural gas company. It is up 19% year-to-date after agreeing to acquire Calpine in a cash and stock deal valued at $16.4 billion. This would make Constellation Energy the largest U.S. power generator and I believe that there’s some solid potential ahead.
CEG stock nearly doubled in 2024 and has already started 2025 on a solid note. Even the critics have to concede that their balance sheet has become pretty robust. If we do see AI start to drive up energy demand significantly in the coming years, I think Constellation Energy can maintain the momentum. That said, I am worried that if the data center demand cools down, you could easily see a 30%-plus correction here.
J.P. Morgan recently reiterated its Buy rating and bumped its price target to $348. It also stated in its 2025 outlook that “Investors looking to capitalize on the growing demand for power can focus on broad infrastructure funds, power generation and utility companies.”
While we acknowledge the potential of CEG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CEG but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 10 Hottest Mega-Cap Stocks So Far in 2025 and Is AMD Stock Finally Better Than NVDA Stock After a 36% Decline?
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
