These 10 countries that export the most wheat in the world shipped almost 82 percent of the total crop exports in 2015. Wheat, which is second-most produced grain in the world, has been grown since 9600 BC. Although it has been one of the staple foods for centuries, recent discoveries about the effects of gluten on overall health have led many people, especially in western countries, to replace wheat flour with gluten-free alternatives. The number of those who are switching to a food without gluten is rising every day, but it is very unlikely that it will have any serious effect on global wheat production in the near future.
Subbotina Anna/Shutterstock.com
According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) record quantities of wheat were produced in the season 2015/16. The total crop’s output of 734.1 million tons represents an increase of some 7 million tons. Since 2013/14 global crop’s yield has outpaced consumption, which is a trend that will continue in the future. Although projections for the following season show that production of wheat will decline to 727 million tons, the gap between production and consumption won’t be erased. Global consumption of wheat as food, which is driven by population growth and higher purchasing power in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, will increase by 0.5 percent. However, usage of the crop as animal feed will go down by 2.3 percent, which is also one of the reasons that create disproportion between produced and consumed wheat.
USDA estimates that among top producing countries Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Russia will see the rise in the output, while the EU, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the United States will yield less wheat compared to 2015/16. The same organization forecasts that wheat ending stocks for 2016/17 will reach a record of 257 million tons, mainly because of rapidly growing stocks in China which constitute almost half of global stocks. In regards to import, Morocco, which was hit by droughts, will record the highest demand for the grain, while Iran will buy 1.8 million tons less.
In order to determine which are 10 countries that export the most wheat in the world we used two sources – USDA’s report which provides information on exported quantities in 2015 and World’s Top Export (WTE) data about wheat shipment values in 2015. Unlike our previous article on 10 countries that export the most uranium in the world, where we ranked countries by exported quantities, this list is based on shipments values. WTE estimates that the value of global wheat export in 2015 was $83 billion, which represents 19.7 percent decline compared to the previous season. European countries, which earned the most from the grain shipments, exported a $18.6 billion wheat while Poland and Kazakhstan recorded the growth which exceeded 100 percent.
10. Poland
Exported value: $865.3 million
We start our list with Poland, the country which has gone through major agricultural reforms after breaking with communism, and which has managed to become one of the leading exporters of agriproducts, including wheat, in Europe. According to the USDA, the country exported 3.1 million tons of wheat in the season 2014/2015. The same organization estimates that the grain shipments dropped to 2.7 million tons in the next season due to unfavorable weather conditions. The leading importers of Polish wheat are Saudi Arabia, Germany, Algeria, and Morocco. At the same time, WTE puts Poland in the first place by export growth between 2011-2015. During the four-year period, the country increased the worth of wheat shipments by 269.4 percent.
9. Argentina
Exported value: $1 billion
Devaluation of pesos coupled with the removal of taxes on grain export have allowed Argentina to significantly increase wheat shipments at the end of 2015 and take over markets that were previously dominated by Russian exporters. The new policy, introduced by president Mauricio Macri’s government, is expected to raise the return on wheat by 85 percent. Reforms have encouraged farmers to increase the planted area, and the country’s agriculture ministry forecasts the planted area at 5.30 million hectares for 2016-17 which is a significant climb compared to previous season when 4.37 million hectares were under wheat. USDA’s data shows that the country exported 8.5 million tons of wheat in 2015/16 which is more than double compared to the previous season. The organization also predicts that shipments in the following season will remain unchanged.
8. Kazakhstan
Exported value: $1.2 billion
Low prices allowed Kazakhstan to export two million tons more wheat in 2015/2016 than in previous season when country shipped 5.5 million tons. Weak domestic currency made the country’s crop cheap and thus competitive on the global market. The main importers of wheat from Kazakhstan were neighboring countries Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The beginning of this year brought a significant rise in export to Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey, and China. According to Black Sea Grain, the country exported 58 percent more wheat in March this year compared to the same period in 2015, while WTE estimates that Kazakhstan increased the export by 104.2 percent between 2011 and 2015.
7. Ukraine
Exported value: $1.4 billion
According to USDA, between 2012/2013 and 2014/2015 Ukraine wheat export almost doubled reaching 15.5 million tons. At the same time, the Ukrainian Grain Association estimates that in July-March period of 2015/16 the country exported 34 percent more crop compared to the same period last year. The significant share of exported crop went to Egypt (1.6 million tons), Indonesia (1 million tons), South Korea (1 million tons), and EU. Although total crop output in Ukraine for this season is expected to be lower compared to a previous year, wheat quality will be high because of good weather conditions.
6. Germany
Exported value: $2.4 billion
Farmers in Germany, which is the second largest wheat producer in the EU, planted less wheat in 2016, and it is expected that total crop yield will fall, by 3.7 percent compared to the previous year, to 25.57 million tons. Germany, which is also the second largest EU exporter, struggled in 2015 to reach shipment from the previous year due to strong competition from the Baltics and Black Sea regions. Lithuanian and Latvian recorded good harvest and were able to offer the crop at lower prices, thus recapturing markets from Germany, mainly in Algeria and Saudi Arabia.
5. Russia
Exported value: $3.9 billion
In 2014/15, Russia exported 22,8 million tons of wheat, and it was the third largest wheat exporter in terms of quantity. However, according to the USDA, the country will become the wheat leading exporter with shipment reaching 24.5 million tons this year. As strong currency in Western hemisphere makes US grain more pricey at the international market, buyers are turning to Russia whose weak ruble makes the commodity more competitive. USDA expects that Russia shipments will increase by 3 percent as a result of the rise in export to African countries. Moreover, Russia started to export grain to Iran again last year, selling 1.3 million tons annually.
4. France
Exported value: $4.3 billion
France is predicted to export 18,35 million tons of wheat this year with shipments to EU countries and states outside Europe both falling by 440,000 and 200,000 tons retrospectively. The decline in export to the EU came as the result of stronger competition from the United Kingdom, which produced high-quality grain. Moreover, during the first months of 2015-2016 France sold far less wheat to countries which had been one of the leading importers of French wheat. The country shipped 51 percent less wheat to Morocco and 80 percent less grain to Egypt. Decreased international sale is expected to leave the country with end-of-season stockpile at the highest level since 1972. Finally, according to WTE, worth of wheat export declined by 36.9 percent between 2011 and 2015.
3. Australia
Exported value: $4.4 billion
Despite unfavorable weather conditions, Australia’s wheat export is expected to increase by 2 percent in 2015-2016, compared to previous year reaching 16.9 million tons. Growth in global demand, increased production, and higher opening stocks are seen as the main reason behind the rise. Lower precipitation and higher temperatures affected the yield especially in Victoria, which recorded the highest production decrease. Besides Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia also gave less wheat compared to a year ago. However, production in New South Wales and Queensland compensated for the decline in other parts of the country. Main importers of Australia’s wheat are India, Indonesia, and China. Until recently Australia found a significant market in the Middle East and North Africa which accounted for 17 percent of the commodity shipments. However, the demand from these parts of the world has fallen. At the same time, Australia is facing strong competition from the US and Canada for China’s market.
2. United States
Exported value: $5.6 billion
According to Bloomberg, America’s wheat export is facing decline because of “the stronger dollar, climate change, rising competition and stagnant yields”. The shipments are expected to decline by 9.3 percent this year to 21.1 million tons, which is the lowest exported quantity since 1972. For years US farmers have been replacing wheat with corn and soybeans because these two commodities bring more money. Corn and soybeans are usually genetically modified to bring higher yields. Wheat can also be submitted to GM process, but consumers are not likely to buy bread made from GM grain which is the reason why farmers do not grow GM wheat. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine have overtaken America’s top shipment destination in the Middle East, while countries like Canada and EU states have increased wheat production becoming important players on the global market.
1. Canada
Exported value: $6.2 billion
With shipments of $6.2 billion, Canada ranks as first on our list 10 countries that export the most wheat. The value of Canada’s wheat export accounts for 16.2 percent of global shipments. USDA data show that the country steadily increased wheat export between 2011 and 2015, when it shipped 24.8 million tons and for the first time overtook the US in terms of export quantities. In the following season, export declined by some 2 million tons, and current forecasts predict that the negative trend will continue in 2016/17.
