In this article, we will take a detailed look at the 10 Best-Performing AI Stocks ‘Overdue’ For Correction in the Second Half of 2024.
Piper Sandler analyst Craig Johnson has warned in a fresh note that the S&P 500 is “overdue” for a 10% correction in a summer, and said investors are continuing to ignore the “warning” lights that are flashing. The analyst gave the analogy of a car whose dashboard is starting to flash engine light, indicating a problem that needs addressing. However, he thinks investors today, led by fear of missing out (FOMO), are just “enjoying the ride.”
“When driving a car and an Engine Warning Light pops on, most drivers would safely pull over the vehicle and assess the meaning of the Warning Light(s) on the car’s dashboard. Like the car dashboard, equity market warning lights are starting to flash, but most investors can’t hear or see them as the F.O.M.O (fear of missing out) in the markets is cranked up, and investors are just enjoying the ride.”
The analyst said he is reducing equity exposure to 80% from 90% and upgrading industrial stocks in the current environment. His year-end target for the SPY is 5,050, which is down 7% from June 28 market close.
For this article we take a look at the best-performing AI stocks that might be up for a correction this year. To chose the stocks we used the Citi Research Thematic Equity Strategy report, which says that AI-themed stocks accounted for half of the MSCI All County World Index’s (NASDAQ:ACWI) 11% return so far this year and drove almost 60% of global equity market returns this year. The report named the AI stocks that accounted for these sterling gains. We chose the best-performing stocks so far this year from these stocks and discussed their AI catalysts that drove their performance. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Photo by Javier Esteban on Unsplash
10. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
YTD Price Gain: 13%
Apple is one of the top AI stocks that contributed to the broader market gains so far this year thanks to its AI-led rally. However, the stock’s gain this year came in at just 13%, much lower than other leading players in the industry.
Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) 14-day RSI is over 61, worse than 95.24% of 2921 companies in the Software industry. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the third-biggest holding of the QQQ ETF, which is also entering the overbought territory based on its RSI metric according to a latest note by BTIG.
Morgan Stanley said in a report last month that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of the stocks that could benefit from the rise of AI PCs. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) skeptics have long believed that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a laggard in the AI race, but experts say Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) almost always makes its own way and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) will come roaring back in the AI competition and surpass Microsoft and Alphabet. The first signs of Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) AI capabilities are here. Last month, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) revealed new M4-powered iPad Pro and claimed that its devices, powered by Neural Engine, will be “more powerful than any neural processing unit in any AI PC today.” Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Neural Engine is Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) neural processing unit (NPU) that accelerates AI workloads.
Notable Wall Street analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster recently made waves when he said in a post on Twitter that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a better investment than Nvidia for the long term. Munster believes owning Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) over the next year will have a higher return because the market is in “denial” about Apple’s AI potential.
Mar Vista Focus strategy stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock was pressured in the quarter as investors fretted over softening demand for smartphones, regulatory action from the US Department of Justice, and the Chinese government mandates restricting iPhone use by government officials. Despite these near-term headwinds, we continue to believe the company remains competitively advantaged and benefits from the Apple ecosystem, which has an installed base of over 2 billion devices and over 1 billion paying subscribers. We believe the Apple ecosystem will support a more predictable cash flow stream, which should grow intrinsic value high-single-digits over our investment horizon.”
9. Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD)
YTD Price Gain: 17%
AMD is up 17% so far this year. While some believe the stock could lose value in the coming months, AMD bulls believe its AI story is strong.
Bank of America thinks AMD is one of the best best of breed stocks to buy for the third quarter of 2024.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is a pioneer when it comes to AI PCs. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) announced AMD Ryzen 7040 in January last year. It was the first chip to have built-in AI acceleration. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) later launched Ryzen 8040. Laptops powered by AMD’s Ryzen AI 300 series are expected to hit the market by July this year.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is also a strong player in the data center space. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has teased 5th Generation Epyc Gen CPUs (codename Turin) and their Instinct MI-300 series GPU accelerators. Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) serve chips are built on Zen5 core CPU architecture.
Average analyst estimate for Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is $187.2, which presents an upside potential of 17%. Wall Street analysts expect Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) to grow 33% this year and 59% next year. For the next five years the growth will then moderate to 32% on a per-annum basis, which is still high. Based on Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) 2025 EPS forecast, the stock is trading at around 28.6X forward P/E ratio, which isn’t high given Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMD) growth trajectory and catalysts.
Meridian Contrarian Fund stated the following regarding Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is a global semiconductor chip maker specializing in central processing units (CPUs), which are considered the core component of most computing devices, and graphics processing units (GPUs), which accelerate operations running on CPUs. We invested in 2018 when it was a mid-cap value stock plagued by many years of underperformance due to lagging technology and lost market hi share versus competitors Intel and Nvidia. Our research identified that changes and investments made by current management under CEO Lisa Su had, over several years, finally resulted in compelling technology that positioned AMD as a stronger competitor to Nvidia and that its latest products were superior to Intel’s. We invested on the the belief that AMD’s valuation at that that time did not reflect the potential for its technology leadership to generate significant market share gains and improved profits. This thesis has been playing out for several years. During the quarter, AMD unveiled more details about its upcoming GPU products for the AI market. The stock reacted positively to expectations that AMD’s GPU servers will be a viable alternative to Nvidia. Although we pared back our exposure to AMD into strength as part of our risk-management practice, we maintained a position in the stock. We believe AMD will continue to gain share in large and growing markets and is reasonably valued relative to the potential for significantly higher earnings.”
8. Microsoft Corp Inc (NASDAQ:MSFT)
YTD Price Gain: 20.5%
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is the biggest holding of the QQQ ETF, which is overbought based on the fund’s RSI, according to BTIG research. Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) RSI is 71.81, worse than 95.24% of 2921 companies in the Software industry.
However, many Wall Street analysts are still bullish on the stock. New Street Research started covering the stock with a Buy rating. The firm said that Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is well positioned to grow profit in the “low teens for years to come” even if the AI revolution fails to pan out. New Street Research has a $570 price target on Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT).
Analysts believe Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) AI ecosystem around its products would strengthen its Cloud division thanks to Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) integration of AI into its Cloud products. Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Intelligent Cloud segment’s profit in the latest quarter totaled $12.51 billion, a whopping 32% growth on a YoY basis.
Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) huge investments to revive its Search business are also working. Bing’s market share has jumped to 3.64% as of April 2024, a 0.88 points gain on a YoY basis.
Wall Street expects Microsoft Corp’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) earnings to grow 12.50% next year. The stock’s forward P/E of 31 based on 2025 EPS makes it look attractive at the current levels. Average analyst estimate for Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is $483, which presents a 14% upside potential from the current levels.
Mar Vista Focus strategy stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to occupy a strong position, poised to capture market share as businesses navigate the transition to a digital-first landscape and embrace generative AI-driven solutions. The company’s commanding presence in the enterprise arena, combined with its comprehensive product portfolio encompassing Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS), Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), establishes it as a crucial provider of IT solutions for companies of all sizes.
Microsoft is effectively executing its strategy in a sizable market by offering a roadmap for digital transformation and adoption of AI-driven solutions, such as ChatGPT, while enhancing productivity and reducing costs. Consequently, we anticipate that Microsoft’s solutions should exhibit resilience even in a more challenging macroeconomic environment, supporting low double-digit growth in intrinsic value within our investment horizon.”
7. Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN)
YTD Price Gain: 28%
Amazon shares are up 28% this year, but some believe it has more upside potential.
Investment firm UBS in a latest report named Trainium and Inferentia as Amazon.com Inc’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) strengths in the AI Enabling layer to profit from the $1.16 trillion opportunity. Trainium is a machine learning (ML) chip that AWS purpose-built for deep learning (DL) training of 100B+ parameter models. Inferentia is an AI accelerator for deep learning (DL) and generative AI inference applications.
Amazon Web Services is another major factor that makes Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) well positioned in the Enabling layer of the AI value chain. However, UBS believes Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) doesn’t have any offering in the Intelligence layer of the AI value chain. The firm labeled “chatbot recommendations” as Amazon.com Inc’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) strength in the application layer of AI.
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is becoming an AI power house thanks to its AWS business, which saw operating margins cross 37% during the first quarter. AWS operating margins have now came in more than 30% for the past five straight quarters. Amazon.com Inc’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) revenue in the first quarter jumped 12.5% YoY and its adjusted EPS more than tripled. Revenue in North America and International segments grew as well. Analysts believe digital ads is another strong revenue stream for Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), with revenue from the segment increasing 24% YoY to $11.8 billion in the first quarter.
Meridian Hedged Equity Fund stated the following regarding Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) reported a strong quarter. Its focus on streamlining its fulfillment network through regionalization efforts has yielded significant cost savings and efficiency gains. These improvements, coupled with strategic investments in automation and robotics, are expected to further enhance margins and profitability in the coming quarters. We believe the set-up for margin expansion over the coming years is compelling. Driven both by efficiency gains and growth in more profitable businesses like advertising, Amazon continues to invest strategically in innovation and expansion initiatives. These include advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, hello the development of new fulfillment centers and delivery stations, and the expansion of Prime services and digital content offerings. We believe these strategic investments are laying the groundwork for sustained growth and market leadership in the years to come and continue to hold shares in Amazon as an unhedged position.”
6. Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG)
YTD Price Gain: 36%
Alphabet can be one of the stocks that could see correction this year. However, some leading analysts believe it’s an undervalued AI stock.
A latest Barclays report suggests (unsurprisingly) that Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is one of the stocks Big Tech funds have been piling into. The stock has gained about 45% over the past one year. Morgan Stanley in a latest note said that Alphabet Inc’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) new AI features do not pose a threat to Alphabet’s “broad-based search.”
Billionaire Ackman owns a $1.4 billion stake in Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG). In his 2023 letter to investors, Ackman addressed the concerns around Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) amid the rise of AI language models:
The cumulative impact of AI and machine learning enhancements is perhaps most evident in Google’s core Search franchise. Google Search has evolved from its starting point as a simple results page with “10 blue links” and now provides summary answer snippets for informational and educational queries similar to AI chatbots without any of their latency. For more involved queries, for example, in travel, the company has developed specialized Google Flights and Hotels modules that offer consumers substantial utility and freedom to direct their discovery process. Innovation in Google Search has maintained its leading market position through multiple perceived “disruption” risks over time, including the platform transition from desktop-tomobile and competitive threats from social media and verticalized search. Likewise, we view the company’s integration of generative AI into a wider range of queries, not as a disruptive shift, but as a natural evolution of its Search product which will enhance the user experience and improve conversion for advertisers. We continue to believe Google is one of the most advantaged and scaled players in AI with an unmatched business model. The company’s stock currently trades at approximately 19 times forward earnings, a deep discount to its peers despite its similar rate of projected earnings growth.
Read Ackman’s letter here.
Lakehouse Global Growth Fund stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) in its April 2024 investor letter:
“Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) delivered a strong quarterly result that came in well ahead of analysts’ expectations. Revenue grew 15.4% (16.0% constant currency) to $80.5 billion and operating income grew 46.0% to $25.5 billion. Revenue growth accelerated across Search, YouTube Ads, and Google Cloud, all whilst the company delivered its highest operating margin since 2021 – showing meaningful progress in the company’s efforts to durably re-work their cost structure. On the Generative AI front, management emphasised the company’s infrastructure advantages including 5th generation TPUs(chips developed by Google specifically for AI training and inference), high performance data centre architecture, and AI models that are 100x more efficient versus 18 months ago. Overall, we believe that Alphabet is well placed for the AI opportunity ahead and still has significant latent earnings power. When combined with a relatively undemanding valuation of 21x forward net profit and over $100 billion of cash on the balance sheet, it’s not hard to see why we remain positive on the range of outcomes in the years ahead.”
5. ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML)
YTD Price Gain: 42%
ASML has gained about 42% so far this year.
ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) has a near monopoly in the semiconductor industry as it machines used by chip manufacturers use to make physical chips.
ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) supplies ultraviolet lithography photolithography machines used to manufacture advanced 3nm and 5nm chips. Jim Kelleher of Argus has set a $1,000 price target on the stock. Over the past one year ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) shares have gained about 35%.
ASML was one of the stocks pitched during the SOHN Conference this year. Vijay Shilpiekandula of Dilation Capital, who was named the Sohn Idea Contest Winner, presented ASML as his best stock idea.
“What I find like good opportunity for investors in the market to think about right now is to be creative about the long-term capacities and the long-term earnings potential of this company based on this gold rush that all these memory makers and large language models are chasing,” Shilpiekandula said
Polen International Growth Strategy stated the following regarding ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Netherlands-based ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) and Japan-based Lasertec play dominant roles within different segments of the global semiconductor industry. In both cases, shares rallied significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023, prompting our positions to grow as a percentage of the overall portfolio. We believe both companies will see demand for their products as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and soon high-numerical aperture lithography must be utilized to manufacture the world’s smallest chips. However, in our estimation, 2024 could deliver a year of less exciting growth for the semiconductor industry, which prompted us to trim these positions back.”
