In this piece, we will take a look at the 10 best manufacturing stocks to buy according to analysts.
2024 is seeing a momentous shift in global manufacturing trends that have cemented themselves over the past three decades. After China opened its economy in 1978, its sizeable population coupled with low living standards that resulted in lower wages attracted Western firms to its shores. Fast forward to 2024 and the biggest Western companies all rely on Chinese firms for their mass production needs and the disputed region of Taiwan houses the world’s biggest contract chip manufacturer.
However, now, these trends are reversing. Prior to and leading to the coronavirus pandemic, China’s share of global manufacturing rose to 31% in 2021 from 26% in 2017, and during the same time period, the Chinese share of the world’s manufactured exports jumped to 21% from 17%. These trends came as global manufacturing dropped because of the pandemic, but their reversal started in 2023 when data from the first quarter revealed that the share of Chinese made products in US imports stood at 13.3%. This marked a sharp decline from 2017’s 21.6% and was the lowest figure since 2003. These trends were also visible in the Kearney Reshoring Index, which indicates that US imports from low cost Asian countries declined by $143 billion in 2023, with Mexico crossing mainland China as the largest exporter to America for the first time since 2013 through its 32% growth.
The US and China are decoupling, and this is leading to some interesting, obvious, and unpredictable dynamics. First of all, during the same year, China’s share of American imports dropped, and US manufacturing companies grew their construction projects that covered a wide variety of industries such as food and beverage, chemicals, and chip production. Data shows that in the 12 months ending in August 2023, construction spending for manufacturing facilities surged by a whopping 80%. Mind you, this came at a time when interest rates had soared to decade high levels as the Federal Reserve battled high interest rates. Electronics led all sub categories by marking a jump of 237%, while other non residential construction spending grew by a rather paltry 6%.
While we’ll get to the reasons behind this surge in electronics in a bit, the US is not the only country in North America that’s seeing a resurgence in manufacturing spending. Right down the Southern border, Mexico is witnessing a similar boom. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data outlines that capital inflows in Mexico are expected to grow 10% annually to touch $650 billion by 2027. This is fueled by nearly 500 foreign companies either setting up or increasing their presence, including big ticket US automakers that have traditionally relied on their Mexican plants for lower costs.
However, these near shoring trends aren’t driven only by American companies, as Chinese companies are also eager to move to Mexico and benefit from the country’s trade ties and proximity to America. This is because as of Q3 2022, within the 5 million square meters of land acquired by new companies, 80% belonged to Chinese companies with American firms coming in second place at 14%. While the impact of this exodus on the Chinese economy is hard to quantify, research suggests that it could lead to anywhere between 1.3 million to 1.9 million jobs being lost in China.
Additionally, while the Chinese economy is slowing down due to the effect of the post pandemic policies, global growth expectations are also expected to stay muted. We’re in a historic era of high interest rates that raise the costs of setting up new plants. According to the IMF, global economic growth will remain muted in 2024 and 2025 and continue to sit at 3.2% during both years. Growth in advanced economies is expected to slightly pick up to 1.7% in 2024 over 2023’s 1.6%, while the developing world’s growth can slow down to 4.2% this year from last year’s 4.3%.
This decoupling between China and the West is the clearest in high growth and high technology industries of electric vehicles and semiconductor fabrication. Within the US, the Biden Administration’s CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have authorized $280 billion and $500 billion in spending and tax cuts, respectively, to spearhead semiconductor fabrication and clean energy technologies in America. The IRA in particular incentivizes EV sourcing and assembly in America. For an EV to qualify for tax credits up to $7,500, its manufacturer must assemble the final product in America and source a certain portion of its raw materials from North America or countries that have trade agreements with the U.S. Additionally, not only does the CHIPS Act prevent companies that use its funds from using the profits from facilities set up with the funds to set up plants in countries hostile to America, but it also incentivizes global and local companies to set up their factories in America.
These seismic-level shifts occur just as Europe increased tariffs on Chinese EVs to as much as 37.6%, a striking blow delivered precisely when Chinese EVs were soaring in popularity on the continent. The EV industry isn’t the only one that benefited from the IRA. On the act’s first anniversary in July 2023, more than 170,000 jobs were added across America along with 272 new clean energy projects for $278 billion in new investments. These include an expansion of the world’s largest wind turbine factory in Pueblo, Colorado, Minnesota’s largest solar power plant, and America’s first facility to make polisilicon based solar cells.
As the winds of manufacturing continue to shift, we decided to check what manufacturing stocks are on the analysts’ radar.
Our Methodology
To make our list of the best manufacturing stocks according to analysts, we ranked the top 50 holdings of iShares’ synonymous named ETF and added some stocks of our own with a sizeable manufacturing presence in America by the average analyst share price target upside and picked out the top stocks.
We also mentioned the number of hedge funds that had bought these stocks during the same filing period. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10. Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 30
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 17%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $46.08
Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT) is a technology company that builds and sells vehicle repair equipment, provides equipment and software for fueling services, and provides products for EV charging. This provides the firm with a wide moat that leaves it open to growth in US EV manufacturing, infrastructure upgrades, and any growth in the use of conventional cars as well.At the same time, it has to carefully plan its spending, and any wrong moves in risky areas such as EV charging infrastructure could leave Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT) with sunk costs and few avenues to recover them. Similarly, since it’s an industrial technology company, it has to carefully manage its margins which drive share price to an extent. Additionally, the diversified nature of its business model means that Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT) can benefit quite a lot from government infrastructure spending as we explained in detail in our intro.
One such initiative is the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI), and here’s what Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT)’s management had to say on this front during its Q1 2024 earnings call:
About $400 million of the NEVI funding have been awarded so far, about $7.5 billion. So it’s very early innings. If you track that and follow that, you’re able to see that 60% of the awards so far have gone to convenience store operator footprints. And I think that shows really the viability of the convenience store in a multifuel future. And what’s really interesting too, if you peel the onion even further, you’ll notice that we’re also picking up really good share because we provide network software to charge point operators. Whether it’s a convenience store operator like Circle K that chooses to be a charge point operator or Shell that chooses to be a charge point operator or charge point operators like EVgo or Francis Energy examples in the United States, of course — United States centric.
These folks can either decide to develop their own network software or they can decide to outsource us. And we are the leading provider when folks look at outsourcing that. And I think it’s because our solution really works well with high reliability. And so we’ve got about 60,000 plugs under management for high-speed charging. And just to put that in comparison, that’s about the number of charge points or charge plug — excuse me, not charge points. That’s the number of charge plugs that Tesla has. So we’ve got about the same number of high-speed charging points under management. And I think we see a multifuel future with a lot of different charging operators that are going to grow worldwide. So I think we’re really positioned well to pick up and be an indirect beneficiary of the NEVI funding because we are a supplier to that.
9. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 77
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 17%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $38.41
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is the only non ETF stock on our list of the top analyst manufacturing stocks. It is the world’s largest pure play semiconductor manufacturer in the world. As of March 2024, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) had received $8.5 billion in CHIPS Act subsidies, through which it plans to not only focus on manufacturing the next generation chips in America but also shift its business model to contract services. Through Intel Foundry, its contract manufacturing division, Intel aims to build chips for other firms like NVIDIA, and its sizable and solid footing in America lends it key competitive advantages in terms of economies of scale and supply chain strength. However, the contract manufacturing industry is cut throat, and if Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) slips up and lags behind competitors, then it could struggle to recover the sizable investments required to set up the new facilities.
Clearbridge Investments mentioned Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) in its Q2 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“One example of a perceived AI loser temporarily cast aside was the Strategy’s top detractor for the quarter, Intel, whose shares declined as it put out financial targets for 2027 that were below Wall Street expectations, and also noted that demand for its core PC and server chips remained depressed. We take a contrarian view of Intel and do not think it will be an AI loser, but rather see underappreciated opportunity as AI PCs ramp over the next few quarters in enterprises, where Intel has a stronghold. We also believe that the company’s technology roadmap remains intact, which we believe will lead to a stabilization in market share in its core PC and server markets. Both markets remain depressed, but we believe that aging infrastructure and the ongoing growth of IT workloads will lead to a cyclical recovery in both markets, which should benefit shares.”
8. The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 54
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 17%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $218.77
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) is an American manufacturing giant known primarily for its civilian aircraft and a defense division that makes aircraft, spacecraft, satellites, and other products. Since commercial airplanes are The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)’s bread and butter, any trouble in this area means that the stock will suffer. This has been the case in 2024 as well, as the firm has struggled to deal with the fallout of an in flight accident on an aircraft that led to an emergency landing. Since aircraft manufacturing is a highly sensitive industry because of safety concerns, the reputational hits that The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) has taken have led to a 27% drop in deliveries in June, which follows a 50% drop in May. Since aircraft manufacturing is essentially a duopoly, and the products are used for decades, this means that The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) can lose out on a lot of long term customers.
On this front, here’s what The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA)’s management had to say during the Q1 2024 earnings call:
“The 2024 free cash flow outlook I shared last month is still expected to be a generation in the low single-digit billions. Cash flow should improve as we move through the year and be back-end loaded, driven by BCA deliveries and receipt timing, including an expected Lot 11 award on the Tanker. Second quarter free cash flow is expected to improve sequentially but be another sizable use of cash. We’re committed to managing the balance sheet in a prudent manner with two main objectives: one, prioritize the investment-grade rating; and two, allow the factory and supply chain to stabilize for a stronger trajectory as we exit this year.
As we operate at these lower production rates, we’re actively monitoring our liquidity levels and believe we have significant market access and are continuously monitoring and evaluating opportunities should we decide to supplement our liquidity position. Longer-term, we remain confident in our ability to achieve $10 billion of free cash flow. However, given our continued focus on safety, quality, stability, we continue to expect that this goal will take us longer than we originally planned and later in the 2025, 2026 window primarily tied to the 737 and 787 production delivery ramps of 50 per month and 10 per month, respectively.”
7. IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 25
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 17%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $239.26
IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX) makes and sells a variety of industrial products such as valves, pumps, seals, and equipment also used in the medical, automotive, and chip fabrication industries. It is one of the most interesting companies on our list of the top manufacturing stocks. This is because IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX) has over 50 subsidiaries, and they sell specialty and niche products that have few competitors. Not only does this provide the firm a key competitive moat in a wide set of industries, but it also means that IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX) enjoys pricing power to set its own terms. Cumulatively, this has translated well into financial performance, with more than $600 million in free cash flow generated during 2023. Additionally, one key bit to understanding IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX)’s stock is that the firm has built out its portfolio through acquisitions. This means that investors have to be on the watch out for IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX)’s choice of funds for its deals. While its cash flow provides it with little need to raise debt, a downturn in any industry that impacts revenue coupled with acquisition agreements already in place could strain the balance sheet.
Ensemble Capital shared quite a bit of details about IDEX Corporation (NYSE:IEX)’s strengths and weaknesses in its Q1 2024 investor letter where it outlined:
“So what are some of the risks we face as shareholders of IDEX? Like with any serial acquirer, the company must continue to find acquisitions to execute, while being prudent in the quality and valuation of deals. We also expect IDEX to monitor shifting technologies and trends, and to respond appropriately in its capital allocation priorities, for example via divestitures and acquisitions. The company seems to be doing so by investing in faster growing areas recently like medical applications, optical devices, and specialty materials over traditional industrial pumps.
And what are some potential positive catalysts? IDEX has proven its ability to generate attractive returns from acquisitions in the past, and this could bode well for its chance to further compound shareholder value. We think IDEX could ramp the cash it deploys into acquisitions and it has gained the ability to do bigger deals. It generated over $600 million in free cash flow in 2023, and we think it could add significantly more debt to its balance sheet without damaging its creditworthiness. IDEX could also report improving sales growth as its customers are mostly through their de-stocking phase from inventory built-up amid the pandemic. Along with a new CFO, Abhi Khandelwal, who re-joined IDEX in November 2023, we think IDEX might be ready to fire on all cylinders.”
6. General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 78
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 20%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $55.64
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is one of the biggest automotive manufacturers in America. This provides it with a set of advantages and disadvantages that it has to balance out in today’s changed industry. General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)’s advantages come in the form of a dominant position in the traditional car industry which provides it with hefty revenue and cash which it can reinvest in risky EV manufacturing. It also provides General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) with a fortress balance sheet through its $18.8 billion in cash. At the same time, it also means that the firm has to pivot to an emerging technology which requires General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) to rethink its business model while competitors like Tesla enjoy the agility that comes with being an upstart in a new industry. Therefore, the stock hinges on how well General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) can scale up its EV production, and whether it can match competitors in high tech areas like self driving. On this front, General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) second quarter wasn’t great as it took a $600 million hit on its Cruise platform, delayed an EV plant in Detroit and a battery powered vehicle, and posted a $104 million loss in China.
5. Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 41
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 22%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $126.22
Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) is a solar power company that provides equipment that enables users to capture and store solar energy. This means that it is placed well in a high growth industry that benefits substantially from infrastructure spending. At the same time, since it’s a high growth company, Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) also needs loose financial conditions to grow. In a high inflation and high interest rate environment, customers find it difficult to finance pricey solar energy products which creates headwinds for the firm. Therefore, the key metrics to watch when trying to determine the price movement of Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH)’s shares is to see its sell through rates, distributor stock, and channel inventory as they enable an analysis of the demand side of the business. At the same time, Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) might also suffer from growing competition in the industry as more firms pop up to take advantage of the growing consumer interest in solar power.
Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH)’s management commented on the channel inventory during its Q1 2024 earnings call where it shared:
“We expect sell-through demand of our products to be approximately $400 million in Q2, up from $376 million in Q1, due to seasonal strength in Europe and non-California states, offset by some decline in California. We plan to under-ship to the end market demand for our products by approximately $90 million in Q2. We expect the channel to normalize by the end of Q2 on microinverters as we previously forecasted. Our channel is almost normal on batteries already. Let’s talk about products, starting with IQ Battery. Our third-generation battery called IQ Battery 5P has been very well received. It delivers the best power specs and commissioning times of any Enphase battery till date at an industry-leading 15-year warranty. Battery adoption rates are on the rise globally and we are well-positioned to grow our sales in 2024.”
4. PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 40
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 25%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $121.48
PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) is an automotive company that makes and sells trucks and associated products in the US. Its business model, which focuses on all ends of the truck supply chain from new vehicles to refurbishment parts and financing means that PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) is vulnerable to the broader US economy. Trucks and related logistics equipment stocks do well when the economy is growing and businesses are shipping more products. Therefore, the key to the stock’s performance is US GDP growth as well as low rates that allow businesses to place advance orders for its products. However, while PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) isn’t diversified when it comes to products, its refurbishment business can help it weather an economic downturn. This is because, during a slow economy, businesses shift their focus on maintaining their existing fleet, which allows PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) to capture demand through its refurbishment products.
PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) is aware of the risk of a slow economy and it has grown its parts businesses recently. Management shared some details on this front during the Q1 2024 earnings call:
“PACCAR achieved excellent truck parts and other gross margins of 19% in the first quarter. We anticipate second quarter margins to be strong and in a range of 18% to 18.5%. PACCAR Parts had an outstanding first quarter with parts gross margins of 32.5%. We estimate parts sales to grow by 4% to 6% in the second quarter following last year’s record performance. PACCAR Parts’ excellent long-term growth reflects the benefits of investments in transportation solutions that increase vehicle uptime and convenience for customers. PACCAR’s aftermarket parts business provides strong profitability through all phases of the business cycle.
PACCAR Parts has 19 parts distribution centers, or PDCs worldwide and is expanding its global distribution network with the construction of a new PDC in Germany which will open this year.”
3. Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 31
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 25%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $192.75
Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX) is a diversified industrial equipment company that serves the needs of agriculture, construction, power generation, mining, food and beverages, and medical devices industries along with others. Its target industries, particularly agriculture and industries make it vulnerable to a revenue slowdown during an economic downturn. Additionally, Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX)’s products such as power generation and transmission products require vast amounts of capital to fund manufacturing, which further exposes it to a downturn by leaving it vulnerable to maintain healthy leverage ratios. This is also evident on the balance sheet, with $6.5 billion in long term debt compared to $15 billion in total assets leaving Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX) in a rather precarious position. Management is also aware of the need to control margins in a cost heavy business, and Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX) has implemented an 80/20 strategy through which aims to focus on only those products and businesses that generate the highest returns.
Diamond Hill Capital mentioned Regal Rexnord Corporation (NYSE:RRX) in its Q1 2024 investor letter. Here is what the firm said:
“Designer and manufacturer of industrial powertrain solutions, power transmission components and other specialty electronics Regal Rexnord is capitalizing on merger synergies and its commitment to focusing on its most productive areas to improve margins and drive organic growth faster than peers. While the company’s leverage is somewhat elevated, possibly exposing it to any macroeconomic weakness, recent strong free cash flow generation has helped it make progress deleveraging. We believe Regal Rexnord remains well-positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds such as the increased focus on energy efficiency, automation, re-shoring and electrification in the period ahead.”
2. The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 28
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 28%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $164.17
The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD) is a specialty industrial equipment company that caters to the needs of the food and food services industry. Its high exposure to the food industry means that The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD)’s stock is relatively easy to evaluate. Food services is a highly cyclical industry, and the industrial nature of the firm’s products allows for insight into its future sales performance. Analysts are on the watch out for consistent order backlog strength, and the general health of the food industry to determine The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD)’s stock future performance. Right now, the stock’s forward P/E ratio is 12.89, which follows an 11.85% year to date share price drop. This comes amidst a broader slowdown within both of The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD)’s commercial and residential business divisions.
During its Q1 2024 earnings call, The Middleby Corporation (NASDAQ:MIDD)’s management shared that its backlogs are low also partly due to improved lead times as it shared:
“I mean I think as we see order improvement as we go through the year. So I think we’ve — backlog has come down as we had a lot of backlog I’d say orders that were pulled ahead. We’ve kind of gone I’ll say maybe to a certain extent the other way where inventory is not only at normalized levels, but a lot of our partners are slow to place orders because they know lead times are short. They don’t want to carry inventory and our channel partners, they see kind of their end users a lot of the projects are geared towards the half of the year. So, they’re not going to buy the product right now. They’re going to buy closer to execution. So when we started the year, January was pretty slow, not unexpectedly for a whole variety of reasons some of it even weather-driven.
That we saw progressively improve as we went through the first quarter and then it’s improved a fair bit more as we’ve kind of gone into the early part of the second quarter. So that kind of lines up with a lot of the commentary that we get from our channel partners along with the discussions that we have with our chain customers. So I think a lot of the view and the confidence we have is based on kind of the transparent discussions that we have with them including what they see as the outlook, where the inventory is in the channel and then kind of line that up with the order trends that we’ve had, as we progress through the first four months of the year.”
1. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors in Q1 2024: 51
Average Analyst Share Price Upside: 30%
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $290.9
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) is an industrial grade solar cell provider that serves utilities, power producers, businesses, and other users. On the face of it, this would leave the shares vulnerable to the interest rate and inflationary tailwinds that we’ve discussed so far. However, First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)’s shares are up by 29% year to date, bucking the trend of slow returns in the clean energy sector. This performance has come on the back of several developments, which are also key to the firm’s hypothesis. Geopolitics and technology are the central tenets of the story, as First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) can benefit from the Chinese solar industry’s call to end pricing wars that lower their profits and the US increased tariffs on Chinese solar cells to 50% from an earlier 25%. This creates more market room for First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) as its products can compete on a price basis. Additionally, it is one of the few stocks that Wall Street is optimistic about when it comes to AI. First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)s’s industrial focus means that it can benefit significantly if AI data center operators decide to rely on clean solar energy to power their operations, and the shares reflect the optimism.
Here’s what First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)’s management had to say on the AI trends during its Q1 2024 earnings call:
“So I don’t know if I have a good number for you. I would say, if you look at the companies that we talked about on the call, the ones that we’re going to be adding today in demand significantly, Apple Google, Microsoft, Meta, they value certainty even more than the utility. So if you think about utility potentially contract multiple projects, and they can deal with a level of failure or delay in a way that you guys can’t if they have commitment to renewable targets at certain times. So they value certainty, and they certainly value the reliability of where the product is coming from and the concerns around slave labor. So we tend to be the first port of call for many of these companies or the developers who are doing the work for them.
And so in many cases, developers will come to us saying that they have had discussions with these people and that they’ve a preference to buy or work with the solar products, especially for U.S.-based demand. So, I don’t think I have a percentage I can give you, but I would say that generally, we’re going to be the favored supplier to the project that are going to be supplying power to these data centers or these kind of asset owners.”
FSLR is a top analyst manufacturing stock. But our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AMZN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.