In this article, we will take a look at the 10 Best Grocery Stocks to Invest in Now.
Food prices, along with energy prices, tend to be historically volatile, which is why they are excluded from the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics each month. Thus, when the CPI rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in September, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, it didn’t provide much insight into grocery price trends specifically. Annual food inflation climbed to 2.3% in September, up from 2.1% the previous month, marking the largest rise since August 2022. This increase follows a shift in wholesale food prices, which stopped declining early in the year and began to rise again, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Food Price Index.
While analysts and supermarket executives point to supply chain disruptions and rising labor costs as the main causes of food inflation, many point out that they often overlook accusations that corporate greed has led to unprecedented revenue levels that unjustifiably exceed profit margins. However, others disagree with this sentiment. One such person is Arun Sundaram, an analyst at CFRA, who states that growth in the grocery sector is driven by strong consumer demand rather than corporate greed:
“While food prices have risen by about 30% since 2019, costs have also increased substantially during this period. Therefore, the key metric to focus on is gross margins, which have remained stable relative to pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the producer price index has tracked closely with the consumer price index, indicating that the price hikes on the shelves are cost-justified price increases.”
See also: 7 Best Delivery Stocks To Invest In Now.
Given the surge in prices for essential food items and the record-high revenues for retailers, it’s no surprise that stocks in this sector are not only performing well but, in some cases, outperforming the overall market. Additionally, although grocery stocks aren’t immune to recessions, they have shown notable resilience, largely due to consumers’ consistent need to shop for essentials, making grocery stores a frequent destination even during tough economic times.
Grand View Research reports that the global food and grocery retail market was valued at $11.93 trillion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a 3.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2030. Packaged foods lead the grocery market by product type, holding the largest market share due to their convenience and broad selection. In that same vein, while traditional in-person shopping remains the consumer preference, the online grocery sector is rapidly expanding. Valued at $50.28 billion in 2022, the sector is expected to reach $57.81 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 26.8%.
In any case, people buy groceries consistently, regardless of economic conditions, and their purchasing levels remain fairly stable in both prosperous and challenging times. This makes the grocery industry, a segment of the broader consumer staples (also known as consumer defensive) sector, relatively resistant to disruption. These ‘defensive’ stocks compensate for modest growth with low price volatility, steady profits, reliable dividends, and a strong defensive position. That said, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael J. Wilson believes such stocks have rallied recently, making them pricier relative to their earnings. While defensive stocks often perform well following Federal Reserve rate cuts—which could be favorable after the aggressive half-point rate reduction in September—Wilson states that they also tend to lag initially:
“Historically, defensives see fairly persistent outperformance 3-12 months following the Fed’s first cut, but can see initial, modest underperformance in the 1 month following the initial rate reduction.
Recently, investors have shown heightened interest in defensive sectors, particularly within consumer staples, outpacing other areas like real estate and financials. Commenting on this trend, Bank of America strategists noted in a September report:
“The US consumer is reacting to the softer labor market, exhausted pandemic savings, and high interest rates. Signs of this reaction are visible across many angles, including the degree of outperformance in staples versus discretionary stocks.”
Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, also remarked:
“Lately, the market has skewed much more defensively as it has worried more about growth and less about high inflation or rates. Since the spring, the relative performance of defensives over cyclicals has been the strongest since the last recession ended.”
Our Methodology
For this list, we reviewed reports and financial media compilations and identified companies in the grocery industry. From this selection, we chose 10 companies that were the most popular among elite hedge funds, as of Q2 2024. The stocks are sorted in ascending order based on the number of hedge funds with stakes in each.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has delivered a 275% return since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10. BBB Foods Inc. (NYSE:TBBB)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 13
BBB Foods Inc. (NYSE:TBBB) operates a grocery store chain across Mexico through its subsidiaries, offering a range of branded, private label, and spot products. Targeting low-to-middle-income households, the company also sells through online channels
On September 9, Jefferies initiated coverage on BBB Foods Inc. (NYSE:TBBB) with a Hold rating and a price target of $33. Jefferies identified the grocery company as a key growth player in the Latin American retail market, highlighting its ambitious expansion strategy, which has increased its store count by over 20%. The firm noted strong same-store sales (SSS) growth, despite margins currently lagging behind competitors, with expectations that margins will improve as the company scales and its existing locations mature. Jefferies stated that BBB Foods’ valuation reflects its growth prospects.
In its Q2 report, BBB Foods Inc. (NYSE:TBBB) posted revenue of Ps. 13,574 million, a 27.5% increase year-over-year, driven by both established and new stores. The company expanded its reach with 121 new store openings, totaling 2,503 locations nationwide. EBITDA also rose by 43.2% year-over-year to Ps. 689 million, while net profit saw a significant increase to Ps. 331 million from Ps. 71 million in Q2 2023.
9. BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 34
BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ), a members-only warehouse chain, offers a wide range of goods across grocery, general merchandise, and specialty services, with around 245 clubs and 180 gas locations in 20 states.
In Q2 of fiscal year 2024, BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (NYSE:BJ) reported strong results, highlighted by increased membership fees, growth in market share, and a sharp rise in digital sales. Net sales reached $5.1 billion, up 4.8% from the previous year, while comparable club sales grew 3.1% year-over-year. Digital sales showed robust growth, with a 22% increase in digitally enabled comparable sales. As part of its expansion plan, BJ’s plans to open 11 new clubs within the next six months.
On October 14, Loop Capital maintained a Hold rating on BJ’s, projecting a possible membership fee hike in the near future, following Costco’s recent increase and discussions with BJ’s management. Recent severe weather affected operations at some clubs, but stock-up buying in response to the storms likely offset part of the impact.
TimesSquare Capital U.S. Small Cap Growth Strategy stated the following regarding BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Our preferences in the Consumer-oriented sectors lean toward value-oriented or specialty retailers, franchise models, or premium brands. BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) operates membership warehouse clubs. Its shares gained 14% after it reported better-than-expected comparable sales growth, in-line revenues, and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter. Highlights of the quarter were increased membership and customer traffic.”
